The goal of the study is to discover the best model for forecasting the exchange rate of the US dollar against the Iraqi dinar by analyzing time series using the Box Jenkis approach, which is one of the most significant subjects in the statistical sciences employed in the analysis. The exchange rate of the dollar is considered one of the most important determinants of the relative level of the health of the country's economy. It is considered the most watched, analyzed and manipulated measure by the government. There are factors affecting in determining the exchange rate, the most important of which are the amount of money, interest rate and local inflation global balance of payments. The data for the research that represents the exchange rate of the US dollar against the Iraqi dinar for the period (31-8-2010) to (31-3-2021) has been collected from the Central Bank of Iraq and based on the statistical program SPSS and using the Box-Jenkins methodology a series was drawn. The data is analyzed and the appropriate differences are taken to achieve the stationary of the series, then diagnose the appropriate model for it and choose the best model and using the comparison criteria MSE, MAPE to evaluate the predicted models to use the best model for prediction. It was found that the best models extracted in the research through the methodology are the models of the order (1,1,0), which gave the lowest value from ADF, BIC, RMAE, MAPE, and the dollar exchange rate was predicted for the year 2022
Abstract
This research deals with studying and analysis of a poetic group under the
title (Trees behind fence) of the great poet Dr. Ahmed Sulaiman AlAhmed
who is the some of the Shek , Sulaiman Al-Ahmed who is the linguist - poet
and famous jurist member in the Arabic scientific assemble in Damascus and
brother of the great poet Badawi Al-Jabal. This poetic group include two big
poetic legends : the first one is (Trees behind fence , ) which include one
hundred and eighty four line and the second one ( AZ-Mebadia ) which is
consists of one hundred and seventy eight line, both of them from the (Al-
Camil ) meter which is free rhyme which bears a many meaning and pictures
and just the great poet composite the
In this research, we studied the multiple linear regression models for two variables in the presence of the autocorrelation problem for the error term observations and when the error is distributed with general logistic distribution. The auto regression model is involved in the studying and analyzing of the relationship between the variables, and through this relationship, the forecasting is completed with the variables as values. A simulation technique is used for comparison methods depending
In this research, we studied the multiple linear regression models for two variables in the presence of the autocorrelation problem for the error term observations and when the error is distributed with general logistic distribution. The auto regression model is involved in the studying and analyzing of the relationship between the variables, and through this relationship, the forecasting is completed with the variables as values. A simulation technique is used for comparison methods depending on the mean square error criteria in where the estimation methods that were used are (Generalized Least Squares, M Robust, and Laplace), and for different sizes of samples (20, 40, 60, 80, 100, 120). The M robust method is demonstrated the best metho
... Show MoreA tetradentate (N2O2) Schiff base (H2Ldfm) was successfully synthesized via condensation of curcumin / diferuloylmethane (dfm) and L-leucine amino acid (HL). There were three different methods that used for synthesizing H2Ldfm; (refluxing, grading, and fusion). Ten different metal complexes were also successfully synthesized by combination of the Schiff base (H2Ldfm) and 1,10-phenanthroline (phen) ligand to form a hexadentate (N4O2) mixed ligands (Ldfm , phen) with ten different metal salts (M) where{ M= Al(III), Mn(II), Fe(III), Co(II), Ni(II), Cu(II), Ag(I), Cd(II), Hg(II), and Pb(II)}. The molar ratio of reactants was (1:1:1) (M: H2Ldfm : phen). The new Schiff base and its new complexes were characterized by different physicochemical tec
... Show MoreThis paper aims at the fact that most organizations today suffer from a waste of time, effort, and cost, and they have difficulty in achieving the best performance situations and compete strongly. The researcher distributed 108 questionnaires as a statistical analyzable sample society where the sample intentionally consists of general managers, department head, and division head. The questionnaire was formulated according to the Likert scale. The use of personal interviews and observations are additional tools for data collection and a number of statistical methods is used for data analysis such as simple regression and correlation coefficient (Pearson). One of the most prominent conclusions is that the company has adequate and c
... Show MoreThe current study aimed to reveal the moral values available in the Arabic language textbook (Al-Mu’nes) for grades eleven and twelve for post-basic education in the Sultanate of Oman. The researcher adopted the descriptive approach using the sentence as measuring unit in the analysis process. The five fields of moral values and their subcategories values represented the categories of the analysis. Iterations of values and the percentages of iteration were calculated in those textbooks. Moreover and the analysis and stability of the process were confirmed.
After referring to previous studies, it was possible to de
... Show MoreThis study aims to recognize the most common thinking styles and level of the need for cognitive university students , the relation between thinking styles and the need for cognitive, and there are differences according to gender .The sample consists of (250) males and females university students for the academic year (2013-2014), and the researcher uses two scales;" thinking styles scale (Harison &Bramson, 1986), and the need for cognitive scale" (Cacioppo, Petty & Kao , 1996).
The results show that there is difference in the range of the prevalence of the thinking styles among university students , the scientific thinking style is the most common , the students have got the arrange level of the need for cognitive , and there
A kindergarten teacher is one of the most important elements in the educational process, since she is totally relied upon in kindergartens. Therefore, she could have basic and healthy characteristics to improve the educational process by directing the child towards a perfect growing upEducating and raising up a child should be an organized process that makes desirable changes in the child’s behavior in order to improve different sides of his personality, such as his appearance side, his mental side, and his social side.
This research aims at:
1- Measuring the scientific brilliance in kindergarten teachers.
2- Investigating the statistical significant differences of the scientific brilliance among kindergarten teachers in accor