The goal of the study is to discover the best model for forecasting the exchange rate of the US dollar against the Iraqi dinar by analyzing time series using the Box Jenkis approach, which is one of the most significant subjects in the statistical sciences employed in the analysis. The exchange rate of the dollar is considered one of the most important determinants of the relative level of the health of the country's economy. It is considered the most watched, analyzed and manipulated measure by the government. There are factors affecting in determining the exchange rate, the most important of which are the amount of money, interest rate and local inflation global balance of payments. The data for the research that represents the exchange rate of the US dollar against the Iraqi dinar for the period (31-8-2010) to (31-3-2021) has been collected from the Central Bank of Iraq and based on the statistical program SPSS and using the Box-Jenkins methodology a series was drawn. The data is analyzed and the appropriate differences are taken to achieve the stationary of the series, then diagnose the appropriate model for it and choose the best model and using the comparison criteria MSE, MAPE to evaluate the predicted models to use the best model for prediction. It was found that the best models extracted in the research through the methodology are the models of the order (1,1,0), which gave the lowest value from ADF, BIC, RMAE, MAPE, and the dollar exchange rate was predicted for the year 2022
The current environment is witnessing several developments as a result of the changes taking place in all areas of economic, social , political and legal that led to the transformation of the industrial economy , which depends based on quantitative production to a knowledge economy which relies based on information and knowledge , as the central pillar of this economy during the trading of these information and knowledge between all individuals in general and decision makers , in particular, through information and communication technology of computers and the Internet to achieve sustainable human development in the social dimension. &
... Show MoreRecent studies agree that the democratic system in a country can only be established in an atmosphere of political and religious freedom. However, the term democracy and the term freedom have become controversial because their concepts remain multiple and different. Karl Popper is one of the most prominent philosophers in modern Western political thought, and one of the defenders of democracy as opposite to dictatorship. It has defined its function by its ability to restrain the ruling elite and to enforce it to prevent their tendency to tyranny. This can be achieved only in the context of the close relationship between democracy and freedom, so, if there is democracy in the absence of absolute freedom, democracy is a gateway to expandin
... Show MoreIn the theory of cinema genre, horror films are at the forefront of the list. It is one of the oldest genres that saw the light with the early emergence of cinema, taking advantage of literary works, especially Gothic literature and it continues to this day, but the third millennium has seen a marked increase in the number of films and recipients alike. There were many types within the same genre and there are many authors and varied topics, all seeking to spread terror and panic and fear in the hearts of viewers who are passionate about the type of horror. Although the fear and horror have been, throughout the ages, a challenge to the psychological balance and stability, as well as being a rejection and an opposition to the aesthetic ta
... Show MoreThe research entitled: (The Constructive Mutation of installation Systems in the Artworks of the artist Ali Al-Najar) has dealt with the concept of Mutation and its systematizations in installation in the artworks of (Ali Al-Najjar).
The research has four chapters: The first Chapter deals with the methodological framework represented by the basic problem of the research, that is concerned with the constructive mutation of installation systems.
The research aims at finding out the constructive mutation of installation systems in the artwork of ( Ali al-Najar). The research is limited by analyzing visual samples of (Ali Al-Najjar) artworks betwen (1967-1991)
The second chapter deals with the theoretical framework, it has five s
When we try to navigate the experiment in search of the repressed and to find the dream of creativity by changing the modularity of the presentation, and the relationship of the characters with the rest of the elements according to a visual vision that reflects the product of the presentation system through the formation of visions and ideas within the textual structure.
We find that the expression of the theatrical act may need to exclude narrative dialogues and turn them into a tangible visual language. Physical and visual expression, and movement review, thus producing a “picture language” through which it is possible to form a new vision, and this is called (image theater), which translates the language of dialogue through lig
Construction projects have a special nature and affect them many factors making them exposed to multiple risks as a result of the length of the implementation period and the multiplicity of stages, starting from the decision stage through implementation until the final delivery, which leads to increased uncertainty and the likelihood of risk.
The process of analysis and risk management is one of the effective and productive methods that are used in managing the construction projects for the purpose of increasing the chances of ending the project successfully in terms of cost, time and quality and at the lowest possible problems.
The research aims first to the effective planning for analysis and risk managemen
... Show MoreAbstract
Investment in the human resource has become an important part of the strategies of educational organizations so that they can be competitive, so that the access of academics in universities to the international awards as a result of their research excellence indicates the effectiveness of this human talent so the interest has emerged in the implementation of a strategy to manage these human talent in organizations in general and educational ones In particular as one of the power sources that can not be imitated. The focus of the organization on the interaction between the working people has increased attention to the human element in order to achieve the desired quality levels, which called for organi
... Show MorePraise be to God, Lord of the worlds, and peace and blessings be upon our master Muhammad and his family and companions as follows:
For God Almighty has swapped for every age a group of religious scholars who give news to the narrators, so that they can lie against the Sunnah of the Mustafa, who is among those who memorized Ibn Al-Mulqin, as he followed the ruler in his book Al-Badr Al-Munir in the Hadith of Al-Sharh Al-Kabeer, and our research included two topics, which we explained in the first topic: The sequels in which the teacher's son Al-Malqin disagreed, and we discussed in the second topic: the followings in which Ibn Al-Malqin agreed to rule.
This research included important results, th
We need to know the basic facts concerning planning top and bottom limits including any critical levels or the threshold over which the cost would be much higher for land development. Therefore this paper concerned with Baghdad Municipality decision No.2/1004 dated 7/12/2004. The reason behind this decision is the hope to face up at least in the severe housing crisis in the city of Baghdad. This paper attempts to know the attitude of the local community in the general through a field study of people living near such dwelling where third floors are added of. This might indicate any positive or negative effects whether on short or long-term including its effect on the theoretical side including the population growth of Baghdad, the
... Show MoreThe identity of the cultural identity of the party (the ego and the other) during a series of questions subject to the transformations of history and the process of culture, the search of identity and its characteristics within the novel discourse calls to address the cultural impact communication discourse aims to reveal the functional and intellectual benefits that contributed to the formation of cultural identity, and stand at the most important manifestations And the secretions that mimic a world remains part of it present in the imagination of the producer of the text is moving in accordance with the holistic perception of the world embedded between the lines of the trial.The question of identity as an intellectual dimension in orde
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