The goal of the study is to discover the best model for forecasting the exchange rate of the US dollar against the Iraqi dinar by analyzing time series using the Box Jenkis approach, which is one of the most significant subjects in the statistical sciences employed in the analysis. The exchange rate of the dollar is considered one of the most important determinants of the relative level of the health of the country's economy. It is considered the most watched, analyzed and manipulated measure by the government. There are factors affecting in determining the exchange rate, the most important of which are the amount of money, interest rate and local inflation global balance of payments. The data for the research that represents the exchange rate of the US dollar against the Iraqi dinar for the period (31-8-2010) to (31-3-2021) has been collected from the Central Bank of Iraq and based on the statistical program SPSS and using the Box-Jenkins methodology a series was drawn. The data is analyzed and the appropriate differences are taken to achieve the stationary of the series, then diagnose the appropriate model for it and choose the best model and using the comparison criteria MSE, MAPE to evaluate the predicted models to use the best model for prediction. It was found that the best models extracted in the research through the methodology are the models of the order (1,1,0), which gave the lowest value from ADF, BIC, RMAE, MAPE, and the dollar exchange rate was predicted for the year 2022
The laminar fluid flow of water through the annulus duct was investigated numerically by ANSYS fluent version 15.0 with height (2.5, 5, 7.5) cm and constant length (L=60cm). With constant heat flux applied to the outer duct. The heat flux at the range (500,1000,1500,2000) w/m2 and Reynolds number values were ≤ 2300. The problem was 2-D investigated. Results revealed that Nusselt number decrease and the wall temperature increase with the increase of heat flux. Also, the average Nusselt number increase as Re increases. And as the height of the annulus increase, the values of the temperature and the local and average Nusselt number increase.
In this paper, the dynamical behavior of a three-dimensional fractional-order prey-predator model is investigated with Holling type III functional response and constant rate harvesting. It is assumed that the middle predator species consumes only the prey species, and the top predator species consumes only the middle predator species. We also prove the boundedness, the non-negativity, the uniqueness, and the existence of the solutions of the proposed model. Then, all possible equilibria are determined, and the dynamical behaviors of the proposed model around the equilibrium points are investigated. Finally, numerical simulations results are presented to confirm the theoretical results and to give a better understanding of the dynami
... Show MoreIn this paper, we study the incorporation of the commensalism interaction and harvesting on the Lotka–Volterra food chain model. The system provides one commensal prey, one harvested prey, and two predators. A set of preliminary results in local bifurcation analysis around each equilibrium point for the proposed model is discussed, such as saddle-node, transcritical and pitchfork. Some numerical analysis to confirm the accruing of local bifurcation is illustrated. To back up the conclusions of the mathematical study, a numerical simulation of the model is carried out with the help of the MATLAB program. It can be concluded that the system's coexistence can be achieved as long as the harvesting rate on the second prey population is
... Show MoreMany new heterocyclic compounds including 4-thiazolidinones containing indole with triazole units were described. The new Schiff bases [VII] a, b and [VIII] a, b synthesized by condensation acid hydrazides [II],[VI] with different (aromatic) aldehydes in absolute ethanol. The refluxing equimolar amounts of the Schiff bases ([VII] a, b,[VIII] a, b) with thioglycolic acid in benzene led to get thiazolidin-4-ones derivatives ([IX] a, b and [X] ad). Finally, the new derivatives [XI] ac run out via the reacted compound [IX] a with different n-alkyl bromide (methyl bromide, ethyl bromide, and butyl bromide)
Solanum americanum is a new annual shrubby plant seen recently in fields and gardens of Baghdad city. A new species is described and illustrated, inhabit wet or semi dry places and have consequently a mesophytic habit. A detailed morphological study of the stems, leaves, Inflorescence, flower, male and female reproductive organs and fruits has been done, revealed several interesting taxonomic characteristics, which have not previously been studied in Iraq. Also, anatomical studies reveals constant taxonomical characteristics such as the presence of anthocayanine in outer row of epidermis, distinct chlorenchyma in whole cortex, the wide pith of stems, and presence of distinct mesophyll that differentiated into palisade layer and spongy laye
... Show MoreChlorinated volatile organic compounds (CVOCs) are toxic chemical entities emitted invariably from stationary thermal operations when a trace of chlorine is present. Replacing the high-temperature destruction operations of these compounds with catalytic oxidation has led to the formulation of various potent metal oxides catalysts; among them are ceria-based materials. Guided by recent experimental measurements, this study theoretically investigates the initial steps operating in the interactions of ceria surface CeO2(111) with three CVOC model compounds, namely chloroethene (CE), chloroethane (CA) and chlorobenzene (CB). We find that, the CeO2(111) surface mediates fission of the carbon–chlorine bonds in the CE, CA and CB molecules via mo
... Show MorePolymeric hollow fiber membrane is produced by a physical process called wet or dry/wet phase inversion; a technique includes many steps and depends on different factors (starting from selecting materials, end with post-treatment of hollow fiber membrane locally manufactured). This review highlights the most significant factors that affect and control the characterization and structure of ultrafiltration hollow fiber membranes used in different applications. Three different types of polymers (polysulfone PSF, polyethersulfone PES or polyvinyl chloride PVC) were considered to study morphology change and structure of hollow fiber membranes in this review. These hollow fiber membranes were manufactured with different proce
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