The goal of the study is to discover the best model for forecasting the exchange rate of the US dollar against the Iraqi dinar by analyzing time series using the Box Jenkis approach, which is one of the most significant subjects in the statistical sciences employed in the analysis. The exchange rate of the dollar is considered one of the most important determinants of the relative level of the health of the country's economy. It is considered the most watched, analyzed and manipulated measure by the government. There are factors affecting in determining the exchange rate, the most important of which are the amount of money, interest rate and local inflation global balance of payments. The data for the research that represents the exchange rate of the US dollar against the Iraqi dinar for the period (31-8-2010) to (31-3-2021) has been collected from the Central Bank of Iraq and based on the statistical program SPSS and using the Box-Jenkins methodology a series was drawn. The data is analyzed and the appropriate differences are taken to achieve the stationary of the series, then diagnose the appropriate model for it and choose the best model and using the comparison criteria MSE, MAPE to evaluate the predicted models to use the best model for prediction. It was found that the best models extracted in the research through the methodology are the models of the order (1,1,0), which gave the lowest value from ADF, BIC, RMAE, MAPE, and the dollar exchange rate was predicted for the year 2022
A discussion about the repercussions of the exchange rate on the behavior of stock markets became one of the basic principles of financial economics. The Istanbul Stock Exchange , considered one of the fastest financial markets growing in the region, driven by solid economic activity, for a diversified economy which classified as one of the the fastest growing economies in the world. However, the aforementioned market witnessed sharp fluctuations in the past few months, coinciding with the continuous fluctuations in the exchange rate of the Turkish lira, posing a serious challenge to the economic and investment environment in a c
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The concept of joint integration of important concepts in macroeconomic application, the idea of cointegration is due to the Granger (1981), and he explained it in detail in Granger and Engle in Econometrica (1987). The introduction of the joint analysis of integration in econometrics in the mid-eighties of the last century, is one of the most important developments in the experimental method for modeling, and the advantage is simply the account and use it only needs to familiarize them selves with ordinary least squares.
Cointegration seen relations equilibrium time series in the long run, even if it contained all the sequences on t
... Show MoreThe Purpose of this study is mainly to improve the competitive position of products economic units using technique target cost and method reverse engineering and through the application of technique and style on one of the public sector companies (general company for vegetable oils) which are important in the detection of prices accepted in the market for items similar products and processing the problem of high cost which attract managerial and technical leadership to the weakness that need to be improved through the introduction of new innovative solutions which make appropriate change to satisfy the needs of consumers in a cheaper way to affect the decisions of private customer to buy , especially of purchase private economic units to
... Show Moremodel is derived, and the methodology is given in detail. The model is constructed depending on some measurement criteria, Akaike and Bayesian information criterion. For the new time series model, a new algorithm has been generated. The forecasting process, one and two steps ahead, is discussed in detail. Some exploratory data analysis is given in the beginning. The best model is selected based on some criteria; it is compared with some naïve models. The modified model is applied to a monthly chemical sales dataset (January 1992 to Dec 2019), where the dataset in this work has been downloaded from the United States of America census (www.census.gov). Ultimately, the forecasted sales
Practical application is an effective tool for preparing qualified scientific and technical cadres if applied correctly and efficiently. In addition to being the complementary part of everything that has been studied in the years of study, it is a scientific linking tool between theory and application. Here lies the importance of this research in clarifying the central and important role that practical application plays in general in raising the scientific level of the student, and the extent of the suitability of the curriculum and means of practical application and the extent and needs of the students applying at the Institute of Administration - Rusafa - Department of Information Technology and Libraries. This research attempted to answe
... Show MoreIraq enjoys many factors and ingredients that made it “affect and be affected at the same time” by the American-Iranian conflict from the “strategic geographical position” adjacent to Iran as an important point and that Iraq has been part of this conflict since the last period which witnessed the outbreak of the first Gulf War (1980-1988) because of border problems and a dispute over Shatt al-Arab, and what followed after that, specifically from 2003 when the United States of America and its allies occupied Iraq’s lands and made a political change by the destruction of its security and military institutions. It increased the importance of Iraq in being a subject of competition between the competing parties in exploiting the
... Show MoreThe research aimed to compare the performance of the commercial and the Islamic banks listed in the Palestinian's Stock Exchange .To achieve the objectives of the study we selected all the commercial and the Islamic banks listed in the Palestinian Stock Exchange to obtain the necessary data for the analysis process during the period of (2009-2013) .the comparison based on the performance indicators ( liquidity rate, profitability rate ,the activity rate and the market rate).
a statistical method was used to analyze the date to find the performance differences between the commercial banks,
... Show MoreSkills learning is considered as an important factor in learning any subject as well as mathematics . Mathematical skills have a number of steps that should be learned and understood faster and with more accuracy . The practical or applied skills are type of learning which includes educational preparation and hand on skills is acquired which conducted by organized educational institutions. The sample included (120) students (males and females) first year / dept.of electrical technigues . The mathematical skills are implemented to wire up the electrical circuts. Test is implemented with questions concerned with the skills .statistical operations were conducted as well as the validity and standard deviation for the test .The results showed
... Show MoreSince the beginning of 21st century, the prices of Agricultural crops have increased. This Increases is accompanied with that increases of crude oil prices and fluctuation of a dollar exchange rate as a dominant currency used in the global trade. The paper aimed to analysis the short run and long run cointegration relationships between prices of some of Agricultural crops imported by Iraq such as wheat and rice crops and both the crude oil prices and the Iraq dinar exchange rate a gained America dollar using ARDL model. The results show the long run equilibrium between they three variable throng the error correction mechanizem. The results also show the significant and economically sound effects of cru
... Show MoreThe current study is unique in its emphasis on investigating design operation and concept from multiple scientific perspectives: including invention, technique, and design components. This research tends to study the methodology and creation of design process in a holistic manner so that the readers may grasp their characteristics and properties down to its minute epistemological detail. The investigation of the design concept is where the real groundwork and pressing need for the study begin. Creation and methodology are two primary concepts in relation to design these relationships can be formed in any design because of the various forces that act upon it. The primordial objective of this study is to evaluate the relationship betw
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