The goal of the study is to discover the best model for forecasting the exchange rate of the US dollar against the Iraqi dinar by analyzing time series using the Box Jenkis approach, which is one of the most significant subjects in the statistical sciences employed in the analysis. The exchange rate of the dollar is considered one of the most important determinants of the relative level of the health of the country's economy. It is considered the most watched, analyzed and manipulated measure by the government. There are factors affecting in determining the exchange rate, the most important of which are the amount of money, interest rate and local inflation global balance of payments. The data for the research that represents the exchange rate of the US dollar against the Iraqi dinar for the period (31-8-2010) to (31-3-2021) has been collected from the Central Bank of Iraq and based on the statistical program SPSS and using the Box-Jenkins methodology a series was drawn. The data is analyzed and the appropriate differences are taken to achieve the stationary of the series, then diagnose the appropriate model for it and choose the best model and using the comparison criteria MSE, MAPE to evaluate the predicted models to use the best model for prediction. It was found that the best models extracted in the research through the methodology are the models of the order (1,1,0), which gave the lowest value from ADF, BIC, RMAE, MAPE, and the dollar exchange rate was predicted for the year 2022
The relative strength index (RSI) is one of the best known technical analysis indicators; it provides the speculators by prior signals about the future stock’s prices, and because the speculations in shares of companies which listed in the Iraq Stock Exchange have a high degree of risk, like risk of shares prices felling, so the speculators became committed to use some methods to reduce these risks, and one of these methods is the technical analysis by using the relative strength index (RSI) which enable the speculators of choosing the right time for buy and sell the stocks and the right time to enter or leave the market by using the historical rice data. And from here the problem of the research formulated as “Is the using of
... Show MoreIn this paper, the maximum likelihood estimates for parameter ( ) of two parameter's Weibull are studied, as well as white estimators and (Bain & Antle) estimators, also Bayes estimator for scale parameter ( ), the simulation procedures are used to find the estimators and comparing between them using MSE. Also the application is done on the data for 20 patients suffering from a headache disease.
This paper presents a grey model GM(1,1) of the first rank and a variable one and is the basis of the grey system theory , This research dealt properties of grey model and a set of methods to estimate parameters of the grey model GM(1,1) is the least square Method (LS) , weighted least square method (WLS), total least square method (TLS) and gradient descent method (DS). These methods were compared based on two types of standards: Mean square error (MSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and after comparison using simulation the best method was applied to real data represented by the rate of consumption of the two types of oils a Heavy fuel (HFO) and diesel fuel (D.O) and has been applied several tests to
... Show MoreTheresearch took the spatial autoregressive model: SAR and spatial error model: SEM in an attempt to provide a practical evident that proves the importance of spatial analysis, with a particular focus on the importance of using regression models spatial andthat includes all of them spatial dependence, which we can test its presence or not by using Moran test. While ignoring this dependency may lead to the loss of important information about the phenomenon under research is reflected in the end on the strength of the statistical estimation power, as these models are the link between the usual regression models with time-series models. Spatial analysis had
... Show MoreThe research took the spatial autoregressive model: SAR and spatial error model: SEM in an attempt to provide practical evidence that proves the importance of spatial analysis, with a particular focus on the importance of using regression models spatial and that includes all of the spatial dependence, which we can test its presence or not by using Moran test. While ignoring this dependency may lead to the loss of important information about the phenomenon under research is reflected in the end on the strength of the statistical estimation power, as these models are the link between the usual regression models with time-series models. The spatial analysis had been applied to Iraq Household Socio-Economic Survey: IHS
... Show MoreThe text has many connotations in the Arabic language, such as vowel points, designation, completion, etc., and the original meaning of the text is to show. The Western text has its owen independent semantic unit .The biblical texts are a mixture of what was reported by the Prophet Moses (peace be upon him) and what the authors described in terms of texts over many centuries.The meaning of the text is guidance and payment, and it is a natural connotation. The religious text for Muslims is divided into peremptory texts that are national proof. The evidence for the meaning of the text is proven by language, and it is not required that the researcher be a jurist. The approach is a factual questionnaire by the researcher according to a speci
... Show MoreThe objective of this research is to develop a method for applying financial derivatives in the local environment to reduce the risk of foreign exchange rate fluctuations to enhance quality of accounting profits through Financial reporting to local units In accordance with international financial reporting standards, To accomplish this objective was selected a sample of Iraqi units exposed to the risk of fluctuations in foreign currency rates, As the research found:
- many companies and banks in the local environment a lot of losses due to fluctuations in foreign currency exchange rates.
- that financial derivatives in the Iraqi environment represent
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The administrations of Presidents Clinton and Bush Jr. have seen the emergence of neoconservatives. The neoconservative were the establishment of the Project for the New American Century (PNAC) project in 1997 during the Clinton administration. The neoconservatives, through the New Century Project, were able to make important foreign policy decisions, notably the Iraq Liberation Law, which was passed by Congress on January 26, 1998 and signed by President Clinton and became a law legitimized. Clinton became authorized to take whatever measures he saw fit to contribute to regime change in Iraq. The Bush administration has also undergone major and significant shifts in US strategy on US foreign policy. During the Bush admin
... Show MoreThe Strait of Malacca is one of the waterways of strategic, political, and economic importance. This strait has an increasing importance to its neighboring countries. The Strait of Malacca is very important for China, especially in the field of energy supply security, as the vast ma jority of energy supplies come to China through this strait. China seeks to ensure its security, especially in light of the cooperation of countries that look forward to this strait as well as the United States, and what the United States may cause to China, as many of them are at war with China over the China Sea, not to mention the countries that overlook it. The importance of the research emerges from the basic idea that the strategic importance of the Strait
... Show MoreMechanism of Arbitration in the Stock Exchange Disputes