The goal of the study is to discover the best model for forecasting the exchange rate of the US dollar against the Iraqi dinar by analyzing time series using the Box Jenkis approach, which is one of the most significant subjects in the statistical sciences employed in the analysis. The exchange rate of the dollar is considered one of the most important determinants of the relative level of the health of the country's economy. It is considered the most watched, analyzed and manipulated measure by the government. There are factors affecting in determining the exchange rate, the most important of which are the amount of money, interest rate and local inflation global balance of payments. The data for the research that represents the exchange rate of the US dollar against the Iraqi dinar for the period (31-8-2010) to (31-3-2021) has been collected from the Central Bank of Iraq and based on the statistical program SPSS and using the Box-Jenkins methodology a series was drawn. The data is analyzed and the appropriate differences are taken to achieve the stationary of the series, then diagnose the appropriate model for it and choose the best model and using the comparison criteria MSE, MAPE to evaluate the predicted models to use the best model for prediction. It was found that the best models extracted in the research through the methodology are the models of the order (1,1,0), which gave the lowest value from ADF, BIC, RMAE, MAPE, and the dollar exchange rate was predicted for the year 2022
كان لنهاية الحرب الباردة وعولمة العالم على وفق رؤية كونية تتجاوز حدود ومفاهيم السيادة الوطنية والقومية الاثر الواضح في ترتيب العلاقات الدولية , واصبحت تلك العلاقات تدور حول محورين الاول .. هو الاعتماد المتبادل بين الدول من اجل الوصول الى خطوط مشتركة للمصالح المختلفة بين هذه الدول . والآخر.. هو تبعية الدول الضعيفة للدول القوية لافتقار الاولى توفير الحاجيات الى مواطنيها . هذا يشير الى نشأة علا
... Show MoreThe research deals with analyzing the influencing role of trade policies in the growth and development of productive economic sectors and their contribution to GDP and its reflection on workforce employment. Studies have proven the success of the Malaysian experience in stimulating the productive economic sectors to grow and their contribution to the gross domestic product with an increase in the growth of local markets and access to international markets for national products. The research also deals with the ineffectiveness of Iraqi trade policies after 2003 in stimulating the productive economic sectors (agricultural and industrial) on economic growth, as most of the increase in Iraqi GDP growth throughout the study period was
... Show MoreDiscussion dealt with the independent factors critical such us success factors and the risk management process, and dependent factor of the general competitive strategies, and began searching the dilemma of thought, as crystallized his problem in the light of the need for organizations to philosophy and deeper vision of a more comprehensive understanding of the concept of risk management, assessment and management to maximize the competitive strategies of public, and on this basis, Search queries formulated problem of the gap between the knowledge-based intellectual propositions farcical for the purposes of interpretation of the relationship between the critical success factors and the risk
... Show MoreAbstract:
There is a close relationship between rigidity and distort structure of production and productivity and inflation rates. The effects of this relationship are distorted the contribution rate of the productive sectors and the disproportionate of exchange rate in foreign trade.
raising the general level of prices is one of the way that have been used by previous governments (inflationary financing or deficit financing) in order to speed up the process of capital formation, depending on the availability of economic resources idle.
The fabricating inflation for development does not represent a true understanding of the nature of the
... Show MoreA program in Visual Basic language was designed to predict the type of radio storm that emitted from Jupiter at specific Local Time (LT) from two different Iraqi locations (Baghdad and Basra), such storms result from the Central Meridian Longitude (CML) of system ??? for Jupiter and phase of Io’s satellite (?Io). Some of these storms are related to position of Io (Io- A,B,C,D) and others are unrelated (non-Io-A,B,C,D) to its position. The input parameters for this program were user specified by determining the observer’s location (longitude), year, month and day. The output program results in form of tables provides the observer with information about the date and the LT of beginning and end of each type of emitted storm. Two Io-storm r
... Show MoreType 2 diabetes mellitus(T2DM) is a metabolic disease that is associated with an increased risk for atherosclerosis by 2-4 folds than in non- diabetics. In general population, low IGF-1 has been associated with higher prevalence of cardiovascular disease and mortality .This study aims to find out the relationship between IGF-1 level and other biochemical markers such as Homeostasis Model Assessment insulin resistance(HOMAIR) and Body Mass Index(BMI) in type 2 diabetic patients . This study includes (82) patients (40 females and 42 males) with age range (40-75) years,(34) non obese diabetic patients and (48) obese diabetic patients. The non obese individuals considered
... Show MoreSignificant risks to human health are posed by the 2019 coronavirus illness (COVID-19). SARS coronavirus type 2 receptor, also known as the major enzyme in the renin-angiotensin system (RAS), angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE-2), connects COVID-19 and RAS. This study was conducted with the intention of determining whether or not RAS gene polymorphisms and ACE-2 (G8790A) play a part in the process of predicting susceptibility to infection with COVID-19. In this study 127 participants, 67 of whom were deemed by a physician to be in a severe state of illness, and 60 of whom were categorized as "healthy controls" .The genetic study included an extraction of genomic DNA from blood samples of each covid 19 patients and healthy control
... Show MoreConcentrated research topic in the study of key variables in the work of the inspectors general offices , which are in the application of quality management standards audit work and reduce the incidence of corruption. It highlights the importance of current research in being a serious attempt aimed at highlighting the role of the importance of standards of quality management audit work , because they represent a router and leader of the accountant or ( Sergeant ) in the performance of his work and the extent of compliance with these standards , as well as highlight the role of quality audit in reducing the incidence of corruption , of during the professional performance of Higher auditors and determine the responsibilities entrus
... Show More