Modern statistical techniques offer a range of methodologies for modelling time series data, with conditional and unconditional approaches providing complementary insights that enhance overall model accuracy. This article introduced a modified ARIMA model employing conditional and unconditional parameter estimates. The methodology for the new model based on novel methods is provided. The prediction process, one and two steps ahead, is covered in detail, and a novel algorithm is presented. The best model is picked based on various measurement criteria, such as coefficient of determination (R2), root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean absolute scaled error (MASE). The suggested model is applied to a monthly petrol sales dataset (Jan

The mathematical construction of an ecological model with a prey-predator relationship was done. It presumed that the prey consisted of a stage structure of juveniles and adults. While the adult prey species had the power to fight off the predator, the predator, and juvenile prey worked together to hunt them. Additionally, the effect of the harvest was considered on the prey. All the solution’s properties were discussed. All potential equilibrium points' local stability was tested. The prerequisites for persistence were established. Global stability was investigated using Lyapunov methods. It was found that the system underwent a saddle-node bifurcation near the coexistence equilibrium point while exhibiting a transcritical bifurcation

Simple and sensitive spectrophotometric method is described based on the coupling reaction of tetracycline hydrochloride (TC. HCl) with diazotized 4-aminopyridine in bulk and pharmaceutical forms. Colored azo dye formed during this reaction is measured at 433 nm as a function of time. Factors affecting the reaction yield were studied and the conditions were optimized. The kinetic study involves initial rate and fixed time (10 minutes) procedures for constructing the calibration graphs to determine the concentration of (TC. HCl). The graphs were linear for both methods in concentration range of 10.0 to 100.0 μg.mL-1. The recommended procedure was applied successfully in the determination of (TC. HCl) in its commercial formulations.

In this work; Silicon dioxide (SiO2) were fabricated by pulsed
laser ablation (PLA). The electron temperature was calculated by
reading the data of I-V curve of Langmuir probe which was
employed as a diagnostic technique for measuring plasma properties.
Pulsed Nd:YA Glaser was used for measuring the electron
temperature of SiO2 plasma plume under vacuum environment with
varying both pressure and axial distance from the target surface. The
electron temperature has been measured experimentally and the
effects of each of pressure and Langmuir probe distance from the
target were studied. An inverse relationship between electron
temperature and both pressure and axial distance was observed.

        In this study the design and installation of evaporative air cooler was carried out using completely outdoor air (fresh air) according to two stage evaporative cooling principle. The laboratory equipment was installed by designing and manufacturing a cross flow plate heat exchanger, where aluminum plates used for this purpose with dimensions (50 × 30 × 40 cm). The surfaces of heat exchanger were covered by sawdust from wetted channels side, to increase the percentage of wetting these surfaces and hence improve the performance and efficiency of air cooler.

        An experimental study was carried out to estimate the performance of cooling system, where som

There many methods for estimation of permeability. In this Paper, permeability has been estimated by two methods. The conventional and modified methods are used to calculate flow zone indicator (FZI). The hydraulic flow unit (HU) was identified by FZI technique. This technique is effective in predicting the permeability in un-cored intervals/wells. HU is related with FZI and rock quality index (RQI). All available cores from 7 wells (Su -4, Su -5, Su -7, Su -8, Su -9, Su -12, and Su -14) were used to be database for HU classification. The plot of probability cumulative of FZI is used. The plot of core-derived probability FZI for both modified and conventional method which indicates 4 Hu (A, B, C and D) for Nahr Umr forma

The problem of frequency estimation of a single sinusoid observed in colored noise is addressed. Our estimator is based on the operation of the sinusoidal digital phase-locked loop (SDPLL) which carries the frequency information in its phase error after the noisy sinusoid has been acquired by the SDPLL. We show by computer simulations that this frequency estimator beats the Cramer-Rao bound (CRB) on the frequency error variance for moderate and high SNRs when the colored noise has a general low-pass filtered (LPF) characteristic, thereby outperforming, in terms of frequency error variance, several existing techniques some of which are, in addition, computationally demanding. Moreover, the present approach generalizes on existing work tha

This Research Tries To Investigate The Problem Of Estimating The Reliability Of Two Parameter Weibull Distribution,By Using Maximum Likelihood Method, And White Method. The Comparison Is done Through Simulation Process Depending On Three Choices Of Models (?=0.8 , ß=0.9) , (?=1.2 , ß=1.5) and (?=2.5 , ß=2). And Sample Size n=10 , 70, 150 We Use the Statistical Criterion Based On the Mean Square Error (MSE) For Comparison Amongst The Methods.