The proposal of nonlinear models is one of the most important methods in time series analysis, which has a wide potential for predicting various phenomena, including physical, engineering and economic, by studying the characteristics of random disturbances in order to arrive at accurate predictions.

In this, the autoregressive model with exogenous variable was built using a threshold as the first method, using two proposed approaches that were used to determine the best cutting point of [the predictability forward (forecasting) and the predictability in the time series (prediction), through the threshold point indicator]. B-J seasonal models are used as a second method based on the principle of the two proposed approaches in dete

     Many authors investigated the problem of the early visibility of the new crescent moon after the conjunction and proposed many criteria addressing this issue in the literature. This article presented a proposed criterion for early crescent moon sighting based on a deep-learned pattern recognizer artificial neural network (ANN) performance. Moon sight datasets were collected from various sources and used to learn the ANN. The new criterion relied on the crescent width and the arc of vision from the edge of the crescent bright limb. The result of that criterion was a control value indicating the moon's visibility condition, which separated the datasets into four regions: invisible, telescope only, probably visible, and certai

The aim of the research is to determine the impact of evaluating the investment projects in the development and preparation of investment budgets prepared by the economic units, since the investment projects are of an important and vital nature of the economic units, because these projects include the length of time for preparation and implementation and the accompanying period of this risk and uncertainties as well as need To the many funds to complete the project , The process of evaluating the implemented projects, which have been prepared an investment budget previously will contribute to the extent of matching the estimated data with the actual results or deviations, which is a step to avoid these errors in future p

Background: The bonded orthodontic retainer constructed from multistrand wire and composite is an efficient esthetic retainer, which can be maintained long-term. Clinical failures of bonded orthodontic retainers, most commonly at the wire/composite interface, have been reported. This in vitro investigation aimed to evaluate the tensile forces of selected multistrand wires and composite materials that are available for use in the construction of bonded fixed retainers. Materials and Methods: The study sample includes 120 wires with three types of retainer wires (3 braided strands\ Orthotechnology, 8 braided strands\ G&H Orthodontics, 6 coaxial strands\ Orthoclassic wires), two types of adhesive (flowable\ Orthotechnology, non flowable\ G&H O

Background: Mini implant stability is primarily related to local bone density; no studies have evaluated bone density related to mini implant placement for orthodontic anchorage between different age groups in the maxilla and the mandible. The present research aims to evaluate side, gender, age, and regional differences in bone density of the alveolar bone at various orthodontic implant sites. Materials and method: Fifty three individuals who were divided into two groups according to their age into: group I (ages 16-20 years) and group II (ages 21-29 years) had subjected to clinical examination, then 64-multislice computed tomography scan data were evaluated and bone density was measured in Hounsfield unit at 102 points (51 in the maxilla

We have studied Bayesian method in this paper by using the modified exponential growth model, where this model is more using to represent the growth phenomena. We focus on three of prior functions (Informative, Natural Conjugate, and the function that depends on previous experiments) to use it in the Bayesian method. Where almost of observations for the growth phenomena are depended on one another, which in turn leads to a correlation between those observations, which calls to treat such this problem, called Autocorrelation, and to verified this has been used Bayesian method.

The goal of this study is to knowledge the effect of Autocorrelation on the estimation by using Bayesian method. F

The problem of the current research addressed the close link between the psychological stress and social isolation as behavior and experience, as well as, the stress of the displaced pupils by the sense of alienation and isolation from the society to which they had moved. It reflects a sense of mystery to the displaced pupils about their lives in the present and future. Therefore, the current research aims to identify the psychological presence and the level of social isolation among secondary school displaced pupils and identify whether there were statistically significant differences in the variables between the displaced pupils (males-females). Moreover, it attempts to identify the relationship between psychological stress and social

In current study a computation fluid dynamic (CFD) technique was used to investigate the effect of groynes shape and spacing on the scour pattern and the maximum scour depth in open channel flow. CFD model have been validated throughout comparing the numerical results with three previous experimental studies for a single groyne located in open channel with three different shapes (L, quadrant, and parabola shapes). The comparison revealed very good agreement between numerical results of the maximum scour depth with the results of all experimental models. Moreover, investigations of the effect of multi-groynes (three groynes and four groynes) arranged in parallel with constant spacing and also with variable spacing have been done, the