The proposal of nonlinear models is one of the most important methods in time series analysis, which has a wide potential for predicting various phenomena, including physical, engineering and economic, by studying the characteristics of random disturbances in order to arrive at accurate predictions.

In this, the autoregressive model with exogenous variable was built using a threshold as the first method, using two proposed approaches that were used to determine the best cutting point of [the predictability forward (forecasting) and the predictability in the time series (prediction), through the threshold point indicator]. B-J seasonal models are used as a second method based on the principle of the two proposed approaches in dete

Praise be to God, Lord of the Worlds, and prayers and peace be upon the Master of Messengers, and upon his family and companions

And whoever follows his guidance until the Day of Judgment. As for what follows: Islamic law commands Muslims to unite, reject disagreement, and not dispute, and to spread the spirit of tolerance and love among them. God Almighty said: “And hold fast to the rope of God all of you and do not become divided, and remember the favor of God upon you when you are enemies and He has joined your hearts.” So, by His grace, you became brothers (1), and He said: (And You will be like those who became divided and disagreed after the clear proofs had come to them. It is they - for them is a great punishment.) (2

The use of Bayesian approach has the promise of features indicative of regression analysis model classification tree to take advantage of the above information by, and ensemble trees for explanatory variables are all together and at every stage on the other. In addition to obtaining the subsequent information at each node in the construction of these classification tree. Although bayesian estimates is generally accurate, but it seems that the logistic model is still a good competitor in the field of binary responses through its flexibility and mathematical representation. So is the use of three research methods data processing is carried out, namely: logistic model, and model classification regression tree, and bayesian regression tree mode

The summary of this study is to identify the relation ship between exposuing of the
public to foreign satellites and the degree of cultural of Iraqi public . the danger Iraqi public
exposure to foreign satellite specially some groups of the public are still own limited culture
and ideology without enough conscious to attitude of society . such people cun easily be
controlled by satellites , because these satellites may be the only cultural source for them
which may badly affect their behaviour . This study also aims to identify the level of Iraqi
people exposure to foreign satellites and the types and motivations of that exposure , then to
realize the relationship between exposing to foreign satellites and the cultur

The current search aims to identify First: To measure the level of authoritarian personality among the students of the sample as a whole. Second: Measurement of differences in the level of authoritarian personality among students in the middle school according to the following variables 0.Science (literary, scientific) 8. Sex (male - female) Third: the level of control site level among the students of the sample as a whole. Ra'aa: Measurement of differences in the level of the control site among junior students according to the following variables 0.Science (literary, scientific) 8. Sex (male - female) Fifth: Explain the relationship between the authoritarian personality and the locus of control among the students of the research sample.

Abstract The goal of current study was to identify the relationship between addiction of self-images (Selfie) and personality disorder of narcissus, and the difference of significance the relationship between addiction self-images (selfie) and personality disorder narcissus at students of Mustansiriya university, addiction self- images (selfie) defined: a photograph that one has taken of oneself, typically one taken with a smartphone or webcam and shared via social media, edit and down lowed to social networking sites, and over time, the replacement of normal life virtual world, which is accompanied by a lack of a sense of time, and the formation of repeated patterns increase the risk of social and personal problems. To achieve the goals

Background: Poly cystic ovary syndrome is a common disorder in women of reproductive age, it is associated with disturbance of reproductive, endocrine and metabolic functions. The pathophysiology of PCOS appears to be multifactorial and polygenic. Leptin seems to play an important role in pathophysiology of PCOS especially in women with BMI ≥25kg/m2. Objectives: To assess leptin level in both PCOS and healthy women and explore the relation to their body weight and body mass index. Patient and Methods: A total of 120 women were enrolled in this study, 60 women (50%) had PCOS (study group) and the reminder 60 women (50%) were healthy women and considered as control group. BMI was calculated first. Both groups were further sub

The current study was concerned to address these gaps in literature by identifying: first level and type of future visions among the next graduation student, second level and type of future visions among the sample according to gender (Male- Female), third level of the illegal immigration among the sample, fourth level of the illegal immigration according to gender (Male, Female), and finally the relationship between future visions and illegal immigration. To achieve the aims of the current study, the researchers created a questionnaire for the future visions. The psychometric properties (e.g. face validity, structure validity, and reliability) were tested. Base on the current sample, results showed that the questionnaire had sound psych