Modern statistical techniques offer a range of methodologies for modelling time series data, with conditional and unconditional approaches providing complementary insights that enhance overall model accuracy. This article introduced a modified ARIMA model employing conditional and unconditional parameter estimates. The methodology for the new model based on novel methods is provided. The prediction process, one and two steps ahead, is covered in detail, and a novel algorithm is presented. The best model is picked based on various measurement criteria, such as coefficient of determination (R2), root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean absolute scaled error (MASE). The suggested model is applied to a monthly petrol sales dataset (Jan

Blood and urine samples were collected from 203 patients to study the relationship between Diabetes mellitus and urinary tract infections (UTI). Blood and urine specimens were subjected for estimation of random blood sugar, in addition to detection of the most pathogen bacteria which cause urinary tract infection in diabetic patients. The study included the detection of bacterial sensitivity to some antibiotics used in treating urinary tract infections, and also included the study of genetic basis which cause both types of diabetes mellitus. The results can be summarized as follows: The incidence of type ? diabetes in males was (35.8%), and (45.9%) in females . and type 2 diabetes in males was (49.6%), while in females was (40.16%).The inc

Coeliac disease is an immunologically mediated disease of the small intestinal mucosa, characterized by flattening of the small intestinal villi, increased numbers of intra-epithelial lymphocytes and inflammatory cell infiltrates in the lamina propria, resulting in gut damage and nonspecific malabsorption of nutrients. The disease is elicited by ingestion of gluten, a protein found in several cereals, principally wheat, but also barley and to a lesser extent, oats. Successful treatment is avoidance of dietary gluten. Long-standing evidence suggests a T-cell-mediated response to peptides derived from the gliadin fraction of wheat gluten, leading to immunologically mediated intestinal injury in genetically susceptible individuals. The

Introduction: Biliary atresia (BA) is a disease characterized by a biliary obstruction of unknown origin. Viral agents have been proposed in the aetiology of BA such as cytomegalovirus (CMV). This virus also considered as a one of agents that can infect the liver and cause hepatitis. The aim of this study was to determine the role of CMV in children with both chronic hepatitis (negative for hepatitis B and C) and have biliary atresia in the same time.Material and Methods: A retrospective study done on 13 liver tissue paraffin blocks of children with chronic hepatitis (negative for hepatitis B and C) and biliary atresia (extra and intra). The diagnosis was based on the presence of HCMV protein (pp65) by using immunohistochemistry.Res

     A Spectroscopic study has been focused in this article to study one of the main types of active galaxies which are quasars, and to be more precise this research focuses on studying the correlation between the main engine of Quasi-Stellar Objects (QSO), the central black hole mass (SMBH) and other physical properties (e.g. the star formation rate (SFR)). Twelve objects have been randomly selected for “The Half Million Quasars (HMQ) Catalogue” published in 2015 and the data collected from Salon Digital Sky survey (SDSS) Dr. 16. The redshift range of these galaxies were between (0.05 – 0.17). The results show a clear linear proportionality between the SMBH and the SFR, as well as direct proportional between the luminosit

The authentic traditional architecture proved that it is very convenient to the environmental and social regulations where it appeared and lasted for hundred of years.

This traditional architecture got the intelligence in providing thermal comfort for their occupants by the intelligent usage of the building materials and the intelligent planning and designs which took in consideration the climatic condition and the aerodynamics of the whole city as one ecological system starting from the cold breeze passing through its narrow streets till it enters the dwelling units and glides out through the wind catchers.

This architecture had been neglected and replaced by modern imported architecture which had collap

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Background: Helicobacter pylorus is one of the most harmful human pathogens & carcinogen. Of the world's population, more than 50% has H. pylori in their upper gastrointestinal tracts. It has been linked to a variety of extra gastric disorders. In correlation to hepatobiliary diseases; recently, the bacterium has been implicated as a risk factor for various diseases ranging from chronic cholecystitis and primary biliary sclerosing cholangitis to gall bladder cancer and primary hepatic carcinomas. However, the association between Helicobacter pylori (H. pylori) and gallbladder diseases is still vague and is controversial.

Aim of study: To elucidate the association of H pylori and gallbladder diseases (calculu

Affinity is a term used to describe the amount of the adhesion bond between asphalt binder and aggregate. Adhesion force may be used as indicator to the amount of energy or work required to breakdown the adhesive bond between asphalt binder and aggregate. In order to study affinity between asphalt binder and aggregate, a modified device is manufacture locally similar to Rolling Bottle Test (RBT) to Predicted the degree of affinity between asphalt binder and aggregate; taking into consideration mineral composition with physical properties of asphalt binder to measure required force to separate asphalt binder from aggregate surface. In this study, suggest new parameters to represent the stripping or affinity phenomena (aff