The unstable and uncertain nature of natural rubber prices makes them highly volatile and prone to outliers, which can have a significant impact on both modeling and forecasting. To tackle this issue, the author recommends a hybrid model that combines the autoregressive (AR) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models. The model utilizes the Huber weighting function to ensure the forecast value of rubber prices remains sustainable even in the presence of outliers. The study aims to develop a sustainable model and forecast daily prices for a 12-day period by analyzing 2683 daily price data from Standard Malaysian Rubber Grade 20 (SMR 20) in Malaysia. The analysis incorporates two dispersion measurements (IQR/3 and Sn) and three levels of IO contamination 0%, 10%, and 20%. The results indicate that using the Huber weighting function with the IQR/3 measurement to build the AR(1)-GARCH(2,1) model leads to better sustainability. These findings have the potential to enhance the GARCH model by modifying the weighting function of the M-estimator
The research utilizes data produced by the Local Urban Management Directorate in Najaf and the imagery data from the Landsat 9 satellite, after being processed by the GIS tool. The research follows a descriptive and analytical approach; we integrated the Markov chain analysis and the cellular automation approach to predict transformations in city structure as a result of changes in land utilization. The research also aims to identify approaches to detect post-classification transformations in order to determine changes in land utilization. To predict the future land utilization in the city of Kufa, and to evaluate data accuracy, we used the Kappa Indicator to determine the potential applicability of the probability matrix that resulted from
... Show MoreThe researcher studies and explains the content of some pictures that are published in al-Mada newspaper. The research is important as it deals with a topic that has a relation with visual culture and its role to transfer the press letter to the audience. The researcher finds that cartoonist exposed the security services through important people who have a major role in state policy and reveals the level of corruption and the weak treatments for this phenomenon and its reflection on the whole society and individuals. In addition to that, cartoonists try to encourage the public for going on the peaceful demonstrations since it is a good tool to make pressure on the government to punish the corrupts.
Since the law is the tool for implementing the state’s public policies, it is natural that its provisions (or at least some of them) seek to preserve human dignity as the source on which all rights and freedoms are based. One of the examples of humanizing the provisions of the law in France is what is known as the winter truce. What is this truce, what are the justifications for granting it, what is its historical origin, how did the legislative treatment of it develop, what are the similarities and differences between it and other legal periods included in French law, what is the scope of its application, and what are the effects resulting from it. These questions and others are what we will try to answer through this research.
Competitive advantage is a substantial strategic objective for organizations. It requires high levels in the quality of products and services provided to customers, continuous improvement of costing , care for creativity and innovative employees, and speed unique to the marketing and financial engineering, and business re-engineering processes. The situation in this area, requires actors to attract and develop human resources, including help in proper implementation of the strategic tasks that targeted by those institutions. According to the opinions and viewpoints of management scholars, the competitive advantage resource is the most important issue for organizations in the third millennium, which can be a
... Show MoreTheoretical trends have appeared Which posed the concept of biological structures in contemporary architecture concept, Spread through the emergence of architectural production that reflect and indicate the nature of the construction structures based on the ideas and principles of biological structures in biological science: Despite the emergence of many architectural proposals that tried to explain the concept in the field of architecture, but it is not dealt with in depth and not given a comprehensive definition: So there was need to search for the concept and its beginning in the biological field as a general framework down to the field of architecture for the purpose of reducing the limits of their search framework T
... Show MoreIn this paper, the dynamical behavior of a three-dimensional fractional-order prey-predator model is investigated with Holling type III functional response and constant rate harvesting. It is assumed that the middle predator species consumes only the prey species, and the top predator species consumes only the middle predator species. We also prove the boundedness, the non-negativity, the uniqueness, and the existence of the solutions of the proposed model. Then, all possible equilibria are determined, and the dynamical behaviors of the proposed model around the equilibrium points are investigated. Finally, numerical simulations results are presented to confirm the theoretical results and to give a better understanding of the dynami
... Show MoreThe topic of context is one of the important topics, which was mentioned as a concept in several fields and different fields, and there were many points of view that defined that concept.
He specified the title of the research (design contexts in the design of the interior space), as the research sought to identify the concept of context in the interior design of the spaces of sewing workshops. The research was divided into four chapters:
The first chapter, which consists of the methodological framework, the problem of research and the need for it, the importance of research, the goal and limits of research for sewing workshops for vocational schools from (2020-2021).
The second chapter: consists of previous studies and the theo
In many scientific fields, Bayesian models are commonly used in recent research. This research presents a new Bayesian model for estimating parameters and forecasting using the Gibbs sampler algorithm. Posterior distributions are generated using the inverse gamma distribution and the multivariate normal distribution as prior distributions. The new method was used to investigate and summaries Bayesian statistics' posterior distribution. The theory and derivation of the posterior distribution are explained in detail in this paper. The proposed approach is applied to three simulation datasets of 100, 300, and 500 sample sizes. Also, the procedure was extended to the real dataset called the rock intensity dataset. The actual dataset is collecte
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