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Building a Sustainable GARCH Model to Forecast Rubber Price: Modified Huber Weighting Function Approach
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The unstable and uncertain nature of natural rubber prices makes them highly volatile and prone to outliers, which can have a significant impact on both modeling and forecasting. To tackle this issue, the author recommends a hybrid model that combines the autoregressive (AR) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models. The model utilizes the Huber weighting function to ensure the forecast value of rubber prices remains sustainable even in the presence of outliers. The study aims to develop a sustainable model and forecast daily prices for a 12-day period by analyzing 2683 daily price data from Standard Malaysian Rubber Grade 20 (SMR 20) in Malaysia. The analysis incorporates two dispersion measurements (IQR/3 and Sn) and three levels of IO contamination 0%, 10%, and 20%. The results indicate that using the Huber weighting function with the IQR/3 measurement to build the AR(1)-GARCH(2,1) model leads to better sustainability. These findings have the potential to enhance the GARCH model by modifying the weighting function of the M-estimator

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Publication Date
Sun Jan 01 2023
Journal Name
International Journal Of Nonlinear Analysis And Applications
The use of ARIMA, LSTM and GRU models in time series hybridization with practical application
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The importance of forecasting has emerged in the economic field in order to achieve economic growth, as forecasting is one of the important topics in the analysis of time series, and accurate forecasting of time series is one of the most important challenges in which we seek to make the best decision. The aim of the research is to suggest the use of hybrid models for forecasting the daily crude oil prices as the hybrid model consists of integrating the linear component, which represents Box Jenkins models and the non-linear component, which represents one of the methods of artificial intelligence, which is long short term memory (LSTM) and the gated recurrent unit (GRU) which represents deep learning models. It was found that the proposed h

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Publication Date
Fri Jul 21 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Bubble Size Distribution In Gas-Liquid Dispersion Column
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The present work investigates the effect of; superficial air velocities of: 1, 3, and 6 cm/s for two types of perforated distributor on hydrodynamic characteristic in a gas-liquid dispersion column of; air-water, and airaqueous-n-propanol solution. Bubble distribution, gas holdup, and power consumption are parameters take in consideration. Experimental work was carried out in perspex column of 8.5 cm inside diameter and 1.5 m height. Two types of bubble generator (perforated plate) were fixed at the bottom of the column; plate A (99 holes of 0.5 mm diameter and free area of 0.34%), plate B (20 holes of 1.5 mm diameter and free area of 0.62%). Photographic technique was used to measure the bubble parameters. The experimental results were

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Publication Date
Fri Mar 01 2019
Journal Name
Spatial Statistics
Efficient Bayesian modeling of large lattice data using spectral properties of Laplacian matrix
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Spatial data observed on a group of areal units is common in scientific applications. The usual hierarchical approach for modeling this kind of dataset is to introduce a spatial random effect with an autoregressive prior. However, the usual Markov chain Monte Carlo scheme for this hierarchical framework requires the spatial effects to be sampled from their full conditional posteriors one-by-one resulting in poor mixing. More importantly, it makes the model computationally inefficient for datasets with large number of units. In this article, we propose a Bayesian approach that uses the spectral structure of the adjacency to construct a low-rank expansion for modeling spatial dependence. We propose a pair of computationally efficient estimati

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Publication Date
Wed Sep 01 2010
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
جودة البرامج الهندسية والاعتمادية (تجربة اعتماد برنامج الهندسة المدنية / جامعة بغداد )
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Promotion the level of academic education is a part of reform and renewal process in the contemporary communities. Investment in education and scientific research is an investment is in the future, and it is the point of right start to construct a progressive community that able to face challenges, overcome problems and achieve comprehensive development goals. Good education, in the comprehensive meaning, is that which fulfills quality conditions in every aspect, response to labor market requirements and fit for rapidly variables of science fields with all their sections and divisions. Development requirements and labor market needs obliged to an engineer of high scientific quality and vocational skills،

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Publication Date
Wed Aug 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
" Forecasting Future Cash Flows Using the Metrics of Cash Flow and the Accounting Return "
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Providing useful information in estimating the amount and timing and the degree of uncertainty concerning the future cash flows is one of the three main objectives of the financial reporting system, which is done through the main financial statements. The interest on standard-setting bodies in the forecasting of future cash flows, especially Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) explain under Accounting Standard (1) of the year 1978 "Objectives of Financial Reporting by Business Enterprises", paragraph (37) thereof that accounting profits better than cash flows when forecasting future cash flows, In contrast, IAS (7) as amended in 1992 aims to compel economic units to prepare statement of c

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Publication Date
Sun Feb 03 2019
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Physics
Effect of indium content on X- ray diffraction and optical constants of InxSe1-x thin films
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Alloys of InxSe1-x were prepared by quenching technique with
different In content (x=10, 20, 30, and 40). Thin films of these alloys
were prepared using thermal evaporation technique under vacuum of
10-5 mbar on glass, at room temperature R.T with different
thicknesses (t=300, 500 and 700 nm). The X–ray diffraction
measurement for bulk InxSe1-x showed that all alloys have
polycrystalline structures and the peaks for x=10 identical with Se,
while for x=20, 30 and 40 were identical with the Se and InSe
standard peaks. The diffraction patterns of InxSe1-x thin film show
that with low In content (x=10, and 20) samples have semi
crystalline structure, The increase of indium content to x=30
decreases degree o

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Publication Date
Fri Mar 01 2019
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Physics
The dispersion in spherical statistical optical potential (SOM) from the interaction of fast neutrons with197Au nucle
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A statistical optical potential has been used to analyze and
evaluate the neutron interaction with heavy nuclei 197Au at the
neutron energy range (1-20 MeV). Empirical formulae of the optical
potentials parameters are predicted by using ABAREX Code with
minimize accuracy compared with experimental bench work data.
The total elastic, absorption, shape elastic and total compound crosssections are calculated for different target nuclei and different
incident neutron energies to predict the appropriate optical
parameters that suit the present interaction. Also the dispersion
relation linking between real and imaginary potential is analyzed
with more accuracy. The results indicate the behavior of the
dispersion c

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Publication Date
Thu Jan 06 2022
Journal Name
Iraqi National Journal Of Nursing Specialties
Effectiveness of Self-Regulation Fluid Program on Patients with Hemodialysis Self-Efficacy for Fluid Adherence in Al-Diwaniyah Teaching Hospital
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Objectives: to evaluate patient knowledge with hemodialysis and to determine the effectiveness of Self-regulation Fluid Program on Patients with hemodialysis self-efficacy for fluid adherence in Al-Diwaniyah Teaching Hospital.

Methodology: A quasi-experimental design (two group design: pre-test and post-test) was used. This study was conducted in Al-Diwaniya Teaching Hospital for the period from (15th of October 2018 to 20th of May 2019) on a non-probability (purposive) sample consisting of (60 patients) treatment in hemodialysis units. A questionnaire was built as a data collection tool and consisted of four parts:

First part: Demographic characteristics of the pati

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Publication Date
Sun Jan 04 2015
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
Effectiveness of the self-questioning strategy in the achievement of the third stage Institutes of teacher preparation and decision - making in Chemistry
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This research aims to find out "the effectiveness of the self-questioning strategy in the achievement of students Phase III institutes of teacher preparation and decision-making in chemistry." The researcher follows approach quasi-experimental with a post-test, and the sample consisted of (27) from " Teachers Training Institute-AL-Byaa "in Directorate of Education Baghdad Karkh / 2 students divided into two unequal groups: experimental its number (14) students studied using reciprocal teaching strategy and control its number (13) students have studied in the usual way.The two groups were equivalent extraneous variables.

The researcher was prepare achievement test consist of 40 items was the adoption of a measure of decision-makin

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Publication Date
Thu Dec 01 2011
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Detecting Outliers In Multiple Linear Regression
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It is well-known that the existence of outliers in the data will adversely affect the efficiency of estimation and results of the current study. In this paper four methods will be studied to detect outliers for the multiple linear regression model in two cases :  first, in real data; and secondly,  after adding the outliers to data and the attempt to detect it. The study is conducted for samples with different sizes, and uses three measures for  comparing between these methods . These three measures are : the mask, dumping and standard error of the estimate.

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