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Building a Sustainable GARCH Model to Forecast Rubber Price: Modified Huber Weighting Function Approach
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The unstable and uncertain nature of natural rubber prices makes them highly volatile and prone to outliers, which can have a significant impact on both modeling and forecasting. To tackle this issue, the author recommends a hybrid model that combines the autoregressive (AR) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models. The model utilizes the Huber weighting function to ensure the forecast value of rubber prices remains sustainable even in the presence of outliers. The study aims to develop a sustainable model and forecast daily prices for a 12-day period by analyzing 2683 daily price data from Standard Malaysian Rubber Grade 20 (SMR 20) in Malaysia. The analysis incorporates two dispersion measurements (IQR/3 and Sn) and three levels of IO contamination 0%, 10%, and 20%. The results indicate that using the Huber weighting function with the IQR/3 measurement to build the AR(1)-GARCH(2,1) model leads to better sustainability. These findings have the potential to enhance the GARCH model by modifying the weighting function of the M-estimator

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Publication Date
Mon Oct 05 2026
Journal Name
Journal Of Baghdad College Of Dentistry
Periodontal health status of heavy and light smokers and its correlation with salivary superoxide dismutase enzyme (A comparative study)
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Background: Periodontal disease is a chronic bacterial infection that affects the gingiva and bone supporting the teeth. Smoking, which is an important risk factor for periodontitis, induce oxidative stress in the body and cause an imbalance between reactive oxygen species (ROS) and antioxidants, such as superoxide dismutase (SOD). This study aimed to evaluate the influence of smoking on periodontal health status by estimating the levels of salivary SOD level in non-smokers (controls) and light and heavy smokers and to test the correlation between the SOD enzyme level and the clinical periodontal parameters in each group. Materials and Methods: The study sample consisted of 75 male, with age ranged from 35 to 50 years. Clinically, the perio

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Publication Date
Thu Jun 13 2019
Journal Name
Parasitology Research
In vitro cultivation of Babesia duncani (Apicomplexa: Babesiidae), a zoonotic hemoprotozoan, using infected blood from Syrian hamsters (Mesocricetus auratus)
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Publication Date
Wed Jul 30 2025
Journal Name
International Studies
A Paradigm Shift for the Middle East: How Trump Can Build on Israel’s Success and Keep Iran Off Balance
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Publication Date
Tue Aug 01 2023
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
A Developed Colorimetric Assay Using Unmodified Gold Nanoparticles for the Identification of Acinetobacter baumannii Isolates from Different Clinical Samples
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  Acinetobacter baumannii (A. baumannii ) is considered a critical healthcare problem for patients in intensive care units due to its high ability to be multidrug-resistant to most commercially available antibiotics. The aim of this study is to develop a colorimetric assay to quantitatively detect the target DNA of A. baumannii based on unmodified gold nanoparticles (AuNPs) from different clinical samples (burns, surgical wounds, sputum, blood and urine). A total of thirty-six A. baumannii clinical isolates were collected from five Iraqi hospitals in Erbil and Mosul provinces within the period from September 2020 to January 2021. Bacterial isolation and biochemical identification of isolates

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Publication Date
Mon May 20 2024
Journal Name
International Journal Of Diabetes In Developing Countries
Role of stanniocalcin-1 and proenkephalin-A as novel biomarkers in prediction of newly diagnosed type 2 diabetic patients
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Publication Date
Tue Jun 01 2021
Journal Name
Swarm And Evolutionary Computation
A review of heuristics and metaheuristics for community detection in complex networks: Current usage, emerging development and future directions
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Publication Date
Wed Jun 28 2023
Journal Name
Engineering Applications Of Computational Fluid Mechanics
Comprehensive analysis of melting enhancement by circular Y-shaped fins in a vertical shell-and-tube heat storage system
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Publication Date
Tue Oct 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The Role of Organizational Flexibility in Achieving Organizational Prosperity: Field Research in a Sample of Iraqi Cellular Communications Companies
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            This research amid to measure the impact of organizational flexibility (structural flexibility, operational flexibility, and strategic flexibility) in achieving organizational prosperity and its dimensions (strategic agility, intellectual capital, innovation and sustainable competitive advantage) in a number of Iraqi cellular communications companies. The research adopted descriptive analytical approach. A sample of (85) persons from the research community was selected, which included (Department managers, Directors administrative units, Communication engineers), to answer the questionnaire prepared for this purpose. And to analyze data and derive results. Statist

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Publication Date
Fri Feb 08 2019
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Laser
Random Number Generation for Quantum Key Distribution Systems Based on Shot-Noise Fluctuations in a P-I-N Photodiode
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A simple setup of random number generator is proposed. The random number generation is based on the shot-noise fluctuations in a p-i-n photodiode. These fluctuations that are defined as shot noise are based on a stationary random process whose statistical properties reflect Poisson statistics associated with photon streams. It has its origin in the quantum nature of light and it is related to vacuum fluctuations. Two photodiodes were used and their shot noise fluctuations were subtracted. The difference was applied to a comparator to obtain the random sequence.

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Publication Date
Sun Jul 17 2022
Journal Name
Open Access Macedonian Journal Of Medical Sciences
Clinical Characteristics and Antibiotics Sensitivity of Culture Positive Typhoid Fever Patients in Baghdad Teaching Hospital - A Single Center Study
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BACKGROUND: Enteric fever caused by Salmonella Typhi is an endemic disease in Iraq. Variations in presentations make it a diagnostic challenge. If untreated or treated inappropriately then it is a serious disease with potentially life-threatening complications. The recent emergence of drug resistant strains of S. Typhi is a rising public health problem and a clinical concern to the physician. AIM: The objectives of the study were to assess and describe the patterns of antimicrobial resistance, clinical characteristics, epidemiological distribution, and complications of typhoid fever. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Fifty cases of typhoid fever (culture proven) were collected during the period from February 2019 to November 2019 in the me

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