The unstable and uncertain nature of natural rubber prices makes them highly volatile and prone to outliers, which can have a significant impact on both modeling and forecasting. To tackle this issue, the author recommends a hybrid model that combines the autoregressive (AR) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models. The model utilizes the Huber weighting function to ensure the forecast value of rubber prices remains sustainable even in the presence of outliers. The study aims to develop a sustainable model and forecast daily prices for a 12-day period by analyzing 2683 daily price data from Standard Malaysian Rubber Grade 20 (SMR 20) in Malaysia. The analysis incorporates two dispersion measurements (IQR/3 and Sn) and three levels of IO contamination 0%, 10%, and 20%. The results indicate that using the Huber weighting function with the IQR/3 measurement to build the AR(1)-GARCH(2,1) model leads to better sustainability. These findings have the potential to enhance the GARCH model by modifying the weighting function of the M-estimator
Abstract
The critical success factors of the means of the most modern in determining the main directions for organizations to achieve competitive advantage. and can be a critical success factors in organizations that overlap in the functional areas of the organization. that successful organizations use these factors to get to the uniqueness and distinction. as the entrance of critical success factors with the capacity Evaluative phase correction because discovery increases the perception of managers of what is important to the organization and using them to get to the Strategic Entrepreneurship. as it begins in terms of permanence of success and
... Show MoreIn recent years, the attention of researchers, governments and international non-governmental organizations has focused on the aggressive practices adopted by companies with the aim of evading the tax burden or from paying the tax obligations imposed on them by law, as the results of these practices are negatively affected by tax revenues. And that companies are part of the society in which they work, and they have rights and obligations, including paying taxes. The research community is the Iraqi private shareholding companies, and the research sample was 4 companies within the private sector and in the field and finance - banking, insurance, industrial and service, which are Ashur Bank, Al-Ahlia Insurance Company, Baghdad Soft
... Show MoreThis study aims to calculate the percentage of loss and its causes of the horticultural crops tangerines and Seville oranges in Baghdad governorate for the 2020 agricultural season and estimate the economic impacts of losses both crops tangerines and Seville oranges at the study samples level. The research followed both methods descriptive and the quantitative mathematical in estimating the loss of horticultural crops from tangerines and Seville oranges trees and calculating the economic impact of this loss. The results showed that the percentage of losses of tangerines and Seville oranges crops on the level of wholesalers was about 12% and 13% respectively; causing economic losses estimated at about 3184.41 Euro. The results also displayed
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Coronavirus has affected many people around the world and caused an increase in the number of hospitalized patients and deaths. The prediction factor may help the physician to classify whether the patient needs more medical attention to decrease mortality and worsening of symptoms. We aimed to study the possible relationship between C reactive protein level and the severity of symptoms and its effect on the prognosis of the disease. And determine patients who require closer respiratory monitoring and more aggressive supportive therapies to avoid poor prognosis. The data was gathered using medical record data, the patient's medical history, and the onset of symptoms, as well as a blood sample to test the
... Show MoreVolunteerism is an element included in many human cultures. It represents a positive cooperative act between individuals and groups. It expresses the social value systems. As a social phenomenon, it develops in societies according to innumerous circumstances and conditions. This study uses a functional approach that assumes that volunteering performs six functions for volunteers. Namely, we assume that volunteering (1) creates a sense of protection (2) meets significant cultural values (3) improves professional status of volunteers, (4) strengthens their social relationships, (5) helps them achieve a better understanding of life, and finally, (6) enhances their outlook and self-esteem. The central aim of the study is to discuss these fun
... Show MoreObjective: To Evaluate the Roley of Cytotoxic T-Lymphocytek antigen 4 Polymorphism and soluble immune checkpoint level (PD-1,PDL-1 and CTLA-4 ) in SARS-Cov-2 patients. Methods: Fromt October 2020 to April 2021, the currentk study was conducted in Baghdad-Iraq. Ninety patients with Confirmatory SARS-Cov-2 by PCR were inclusion in the study, and they were seeking treatment at Medical City in Baghdad's Teaching Hospital (BTH). Patients with SARS-Cov-2 were divided into two groups: those with Sever SARS-Cov-2 symptom and those with mild - moderate SARS-Cov-2 symptoms (cross sectional study. Patients with another form of autoimmune illness, malignant, diabetes, under the age of 18 and pregnant women were excluded. Results: Data rega
... Show MoreObjectives: To assess the changes in blood vessel stiffness and digital pulse wave amplitude because of flowmediateddilatation, and to explore how these two variables change when endothelial dysfunction isexperimentally induced.Method: The experimental study was conducted at the departments of physiology at the College of Medicine,Mustansiriyah University, and the College of Medicine, Al-Iraqia University, Baghdad, Iraq, from October 14, 2021, toMay 31, 2022, and comprised healthy young males who were subjected to the flow-mediated dilatation techniqueon the left brachial artery. Pulse transit time and the amplitude of the digital pulse wave were measured duringreactive hyperaemia for 2.5 minutes from the left middle finger using a
... Show MoreExogenous levothyroxine dose modulation and euthyroidism achievement is a persistent challenge in clinical settings. This study strives to assess the adequacy of treatment and identify the patients’ factors that can be used to estimate the euthyroid levothyroxine dose. A secondary objective was to assess vitamin D supplementation impact on thyroid status.
A review of a prospectively collected information from 142 female patients from Baghdad Center of Nuclear Medicine from June 2019 until March 2020 who were receiving levothyroxine for different causes was done. After a follow-up period, the patients’ thyroid tests were assessed and the euthyroid doses for each cause category were statistically analyzed. Thyroid function was
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Focused research aims to provide a framework cognitive analytical nature of real estate investments and how they evaluated in the light of the assessment tools of modern theory of real options, and the possibility to rely on that theory in the detection of the true value of projects, real estate investments that would maximize the value of the investment decision taken, and the analysis of those projects that arise in the real estate markets and environments is the organization, which she was to make sure cases and high-risk, compared with entrances techniques, discounted cash flow (net present value). Based on the assumption lies in the possibility of the application of the implic
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Abstract
The Classical Normal Linear Regression Model Based on Several hypotheses, one of them is Heteroscedasticity as it is known that the wing of least squares method (OLS), under the existence of these two problems make the estimators, lose their desirable properties, in addition the statistical inference becomes unaccepted table. According that we put tow alternative, the first one is (Generalized Least Square) Which is denoted by (GLS), and the second alternative is to (Robust covariance matrix estimation) the estimated parameters method(OLS), and that the way (GLS) method neat and certified, if the capabilities (Efficient) and the statistical inference Thread on the basis of an acceptable
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