The unstable and uncertain nature of natural rubber prices makes them highly volatile and prone to outliers, which can have a significant impact on both modeling and forecasting. To tackle this issue, the author recommends a hybrid model that combines the autoregressive (AR) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models. The model utilizes the Huber weighting function to ensure the forecast value of rubber prices remains sustainable even in the presence of outliers. The study aims to develop a sustainable model and forecast daily prices for a 12-day period by analyzing 2683 daily price data from Standard Malaysian Rubber Grade 20 (SMR 20) in Malaysia. The analysis incorporates two dispersion measurements (IQR/3 and Sn) and three levels of IO contamination 0%, 10%, and 20%. The results indicate that using the Huber weighting function with the IQR/3 measurement to build the AR(1)-GARCH(2,1) model leads to better sustainability. These findings have the potential to enhance the GARCH model by modifying the weighting function of the M-estimator
In this research, some probability characteristics functions (probability density, characteristic, correlation and spectral density) are derived depending upon the smallest variance of the exact solution of supposing stochastic non-linear Fredholm integral equation of the second kind found by Adomian decomposition method (A.D.M)
Focusing on the negative role of default risk on banks, as it is one of the most important risks facing banks, which are difficult to determine accurately, and its reflection on the indicators of profitability of cash flows. The increasing competition between banks led to an increase in the credit facilities granted by banks, and was accompanied by an increase in exposure to the risks of default, which led to an impact on the level of performance of banks in terms of achieving the required return according to the levels of high competition. Therefore, the problem of this study focused on the extent to which the risk indicators of default affect the profitability indicators of the cash flows of the banks research sample in the profit
... Show MoreThe research focuses on determining the role of customer relationship management in improving financial performance by surveying the opinions of a number of employees of a number of Iraqi private banks. The customer has become the focus of attention and the most important factors of success and profitability and competition. Therefore, decisions related to the customer are important decisions that support the process of making, And follow-up of administrative decisions, including financial decisions aimed at improving the financial performance of banks and distinguish them from competitors. Thus, the techniques used in customer relations management programs to collect, analyze and use data and information have beco
... Show MoreThis work is aiming to study and compare the removal of lead (II) from simulated wastewater by activated carbon and bentonite as adsorbents with particle size of 0.32-0.5 mm. A mathematical model was applied to describe the mass transfer kinetic.
The batch experiments were carried out to determine the adsorption isotherm constants for each adsorbent, and five isotherm models were tested to choose the best fit model for the experimental data. The pore, surface diffusion coefficients and mass transfer coefficient were found by fitting the experimental data to a theoretical model. Partial differential equations were used to describe the adsorption in the bulk and solid phases. These equations were simplified and the
... Show MoreThe study area comprises Injana Formation (Late Miocene), exposed on the hills nearby of Tharthar Lake and about 120 km north of Baghdad city. This study depends on sedimentologic and facies analysis to recognize paleoenvironment and recognize the kinds of vertebrate bone fossils during Late Miocene. Sedimentologic and facies analysis showed many sedimentary facies: facies (Se) of scoured erosional surface, facies of (Sp) cross- bedded sandstones, facies (Fs) of fine sandstone facies, facies of (Fc) claystone, and facies of (C) calcareous clay. Facies analysis referred to the sub environments which are: point bar, over bank and floodplain in addition to fining upward cycles of deposition, which refers to meandering flu
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The aim of the research is to measure the effect of changing the exchange rate on bank loans, and in order to achieve this goal, the (official exchange rate) was chosen as an independent variable and its effect was studied on the dependent variable, which is bank credit. Commercial Gulf, Baghdad, A Shore International for Investment (and the financial indicators (growth rate of loans) and the statistical program (Eviews 12) were used to measure the impact of the exchange rate change on the bank credit of banks, the research sample for the period 2012-2022, and the research reached a group Among the conclusions, the most important of which is that the
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