The unstable and uncertain nature of natural rubber prices makes them highly volatile and prone to outliers, which can have a significant impact on both modeling and forecasting. To tackle this issue, the author recommends a hybrid model that combines the autoregressive (AR) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models. The model utilizes the Huber weighting function to ensure the forecast value of rubber prices remains sustainable even in the presence of outliers. The study aims to develop a sustainable model and forecast daily prices for a 12-day period by analyzing 2683 daily price data from Standard Malaysian Rubber Grade 20 (SMR 20) in Malaysia. The analysis incorporates two dispersion measurements (IQR/3 and Sn) and three levels of IO contamination 0%, 10%, and 20%. The results indicate that using the Huber weighting function with the IQR/3 measurement to build the AR(1)-GARCH(2,1) model leads to better sustainability. These findings have the potential to enhance the GARCH model by modifying the weighting function of the M-estimator
Background: While warfarin and direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) are used to manage thromboembolic events, they possess several features that impact adherence. Objective: To assess medication adherence and self-efficacy in patients receiving warfarin or DOAC treatment. Methods: A cross-sectional study was performed at Ibn Al-Bitar Hospital in Baghdad from December 2022 to May 2023 on patients receiving either warfarin or DOACs. The Arabic version of the Adherence to Refills and Medications Scale (ARMS) questionnaire and the Self-Efficacy for Managing Chronic Disease 6-Item Scale (SES6C) questionnaire were used to assess adherence and self-efficacy. Results: 181 patients were enrolled in the study, of whom 56.9% received warfarin an
... Show MoreThe outbreak of a current public health coronavirus 2019 disease is a causative agent of a serious acute respiratory syndrome and even death. COVID-19 has exposed to multi-suggested pharmaceutical agents to control this global disease. Baricitinib, a well-known antirheumatic agent, was one of them. This article reviews the likely pros and cons of baricitinib in attenuation of COVID-19 based on the mechanism of drug action as well as its pharmacokinetics. The inhibitory effect of baricitinib on receptor mediated endocytosis promoter, AKK1, and on JAK-STAT signaling pathway is benefacial in inhibition of both viral assembling and inflammation. Also, its pharmacokinetic has encouraged the physicians toward the drug
... Show MoreMicrobial Desalination Cell (MDC) is capable of desalinating seawater, producing electrical power and treating wastewater. Previously, chemical cathodes were used, which were application restrictions due to operational expenses are quite high, low levels of long-term viability and high toxicity. A pure oxygen cathode was using, external resistance 50 and 150 k Ω were studied with two concentrations of NaCl in the desalination chamber 15-25 g/L which represents the concentration of brackish water and sea water. The highest energy productivity was obtained, which amounted to 44 and 46 mW/m3, and the maximum limit for desalination of saline water was (31% and 26%) for each of 25 g / L and 15 g / L, respectively, when using an ex
... Show MoreReceipt date:2/17/2021 acceptance date:3/16/2021 Publishing date:12/31/2021
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Objective: This paper investigates the contradictions in the decision-making process of the United States, which historically proven to be successful policies in the short term, but in the long term proven to be wanting and failure. Methodology: The paper uses descriptive, historical, comparative method. A
... Show MoreMost studies indicated that the values of atmospheric variables have changed from their general rates due to pollution or global warming etc. Hence, the research indicates the changes of direct solar radiation values over a whole century i.e. from 1900 to 2000 depending on registered data for four cities, namely (Mosul - Baghdad - Rutba - Basra. Moreover, attemptsto correlate the direct solar radiation with the temperature values have been recorded over that period. The results showed that there is a decreasing pattern of radiation quantities over time throughout the study period, where the value of direct radiation over the city of Baghdad 5550 w/m2 was recorded in the year 1900, but this ratio decreased cle
... Show MoreThis paper aims to study the effect of circular Y-shaped fin arrangement to improve the low thermal response rates of a double-tube heat exchanger containing Paraffin phase change material (PCM). ANSYS software is employed to perform the computational fluid dynamic (CFD) simulations of the heat exchanger, including fluid flow, heat transfer, and the phase change process. The optimum state of the fin configuration is derived through sensitivity analysis by evaluating the geometrical parameters of the Y-shaped fin. For the same height of the fins (10 mm), the solidification time is reduced by almost 22%, and the discharging rate is enhanced by almost 26% using Y-shaped fins compared with the straight fins. The results demonstrate that the sol
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