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Building a Sustainable GARCH Model to Forecast Rubber Price: Modified Huber Weighting Function Approach
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The unstable and uncertain nature of natural rubber prices makes them highly volatile and prone to outliers, which can have a significant impact on both modeling and forecasting. To tackle this issue, the author recommends a hybrid model that combines the autoregressive (AR) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models. The model utilizes the Huber weighting function to ensure the forecast value of rubber prices remains sustainable even in the presence of outliers. The study aims to develop a sustainable model and forecast daily prices for a 12-day period by analyzing 2683 daily price data from Standard Malaysian Rubber Grade 20 (SMR 20) in Malaysia. The analysis incorporates two dispersion measurements (IQR/3 and Sn) and three levels of IO contamination 0%, 10%, and 20%. The results indicate that using the Huber weighting function with the IQR/3 measurement to build the AR(1)-GARCH(2,1) model leads to better sustainability. These findings have the potential to enhance the GARCH model by modifying the weighting function of the M-estimator

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Publication Date
Tue Mar 20 2018
Journal Name
Mustansiria Dental Journal
A comparative Study in the Antibacterial effect of Eugenol as Hand Wash Material with two Types of Soap
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Hands have consistently been an important vehicle in the transmission of disease (1). Thus, thorough hand-washing remains the single most important factor in preventing infection specially in hospitals and labs.Twenty-nine non-clinical volunteers (do not work or come in contact with a clinical or hospital setting) that lacked visible skin injuries, eczema or apparent skin disease were used, those subjects were all tested by a material of each of the three used in the study weekly and laboratory tests were done pre- and post washing.All three material were effective , Eugenol extract as effective as the bar and lotion soap. And this was confirmed statistically.Eugenol has a great antibacterial action even in small concentration and t

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Publication Date
Mon Apr 03 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
The Effectiveness of a Developed Unit in The Arabic Language Textbook for The Enhancement of 21st Century Skills
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Abstract

This research aims to develop a unit as part of a sixth-grade Arabic language textbook and measure its effectiveness in the development of twenty-first-century skills of female students. The author adopted the experimental approach with a quasi-experimental design of the pre-post single-group. A list of the major skills was derived from the framework for the 21st-century skills of the mother tongue that was developed by the Partnership for 21st-Century Skills and reviewed and adjusted by some specialists. According to their views, the unit was developed. The study targeted 15 sub-skills falling under three main skills. The results of the study showed the effectiveness of the developed unit in the develo

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Publication Date
Sat Aug 30 2025
Journal Name
Gsc Biological And Pharmaceutical Sciences
A new record of North African catfish Clarias gariepinus (Burchell, 1822) (Siluriformes: Clariidae) in Baghdad from Tigris River
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A single specimen of the African catfish, Clarias gariepinus, was recorded for the first time in Baghdad, Iraq. The specimen was caught during a fish survey to document some local species in northern Baghdad (Al-Rusafa) on March 21, 2023. The total length of the specimen was 43 cm, and its weight was 590 grams. Some biometric measurements of the specimen were studied and found to be consistent with the general characteristics of the African catfish Clarias gariepinus (Burchell, 1822). It is possible that the fish entered Iraqi inland waters, specifically from the Euphrates River via Syria or from the Tigris River via Turkey.

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Publication Date
Fri Mar 10 2023
Journal Name
Aspac J. Mol. Biol. Biotechnol
Influence of IL-28B serum level and gene polymorphism in a sample of Iraqi patients with ankylosing spondylitis
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Ankylosing spondylitis (AS) represents one kind of advanced arthritis formed via inflammatory stimuli long-term in the spin‘s joints. Interleukin (IL)-29 (interferon- lambda1(IFN- λ1)), interleukin (IL)-28A (interferon- lambda 2 (IFN- λ2)) and interleukin (IL)-28B (interferon- lambda 3(IFN-λ3)) are three interferon lambda (IFN- λs) molecules that have recently been identified as new members of the IFN family. IL-28B expression in ankylosing spondylitis (AS) is not well understood. 150 male healthy controls ((HC) and 160 males with AS as patients group participated in this study. Serum level and gene polymorphism were assessed using an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay and Sanger sequencing for IL-28B, respectively. The results showed

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 01 2018
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Numerical Simulation of Unsaturated Soil Water Flow from a Trickle Point System, Considering Evaporation and Root Water Uptake
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This research was carried out to study the effect of plants on the wetted area for two soil types in Iraq and predict an equation to determine the wetted radius and depth for two different soil types cultivated with different types of plants, the wetting patterns for the soils were predicted at every thirty minute for a total irrigation time equal to 3 hr. Five defferent discharges of emitter and five initial volumetric soil moisture contents were used ranged between field capacity and wilting point were utilized to simulate the wetting patterns. The simulation of the water flow from a single point emitter was completed by utilized HYDRUS-2D/3D software, version 2.05. Two methods were used in developing equations to predict the domains o

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Publication Date
Thu Oct 20 2022
Journal Name
Ibn Al-haitham Journal For Pure And Applied Sciences
A study of Hepcidin levels and other Biochemical parameters in woman with Osteoporosis with Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus
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Background: Diabetes mellitus (DM) could be regarded as a set of chronic metabolic disorders which have a common aspect of hyperglycemia. The resistance in the peripheral actions of insulin or impaired insulin secretion could be the reason  hepcidin which is a peptide hormone derived from liver, in systemic iron homeostasis is an essential regulator, and its lopsided production participates in the pathogenesis of iron disorders in spectrum. Osteoporosis often accompanies many diseases like ß-thalassemia, hemochromatosis, sickle liver diseases, cell disease and hemosiderosis featured by iron overload, evidences suggest that Iron overload and iron deficiency are suggested by evidences that they affect bone in a negative way, acting

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Publication Date
Sun Feb 02 2025
Journal Name
Engineering, Technology & Applied Science Research
A Numerical Study of Concrete Composite Circular Columns encased with GFRP I-Section using the Finite Element Method
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This paper presents ABAQUS simulations of fully encased composite columns, aiming to examine the behavior of a composite column system under different load conditions, namely concentric, eccentric with 25 mm eccentricity, and flexural loading. The numerical results are validated with the experimental results obtained for columns subjected to static loads. A new loading condition with a 50 mm eccentricity is simulated to obtain additional data points for constructing the interaction diagram of load-moment curves, in an attempt to investigate the load-moment behavior for a reference column with a steel I-section and a column with a GFRP I-section. The result comparison shows that the experimental data align closely with the simulation

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Publication Date
Thu Nov 19 2020
Journal Name
The Iraqi Journal For Information And Documentation Studies
The use of still and animated comics in providing user services in university information institutions: a field study
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Comics is a visual art (Still and motion pictures) it seeks to provide a Training courses are a series of intensive important educational and complementary programs, based on previous foundation experiences. Create to development the participants in aspects of specialization according to the requirements of the educational system to continue developing the previous scienti􀂡c and practical experiences. Personally, or adopted by the trainee institution, where the trainee gets a professional skill certi􀂡cate that contributes to the development his work.Development and Continuous Education Center (DCEC) at the University of Baghdad (UoBaghdad) is a center dedicated to continuing education courses in which the participant is awarded a cert

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Publication Date
Wed Mar 01 2006
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Environmental Auditing A proposed Framework For Practice In Industrial Companies: Practical Study In Iraqi State Company For Cement
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This research aims to studying and analyzing the theoretical
framework of the environmental auditing in industrial environment to its a broad and danger environmental effects . It aims to contribute in setting and testing a proposed procedure framework for environmental auditing in that vital activity .The practical aspect focused on testing a proposed framework within practice it in a one Iraqi industrial company that has a huge effect on environmental activity, represented by Iraqi state company

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Publication Date
Tue Aug 24 2021
Journal Name
Periodicals Of Engineering And Natural Sciences (pen)
A plan for transportation and distribution the products based on multi-objective travelling salesman problem in fuzzy environmental
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Transportation and distribution are the most important elements in the work system for any company, which are of great importance in the success of the chain work. Al-Rabee factory is one of the largest ice cream factories in Iraq and it is considered one of the most productive and diversified factories with products where its products cover most areas of the capital Baghdad, however, it lacks a distribution system based on scientific and mathematical methods to work in the transportation and distribution processes, moreover, these processes need a set of important data that cannot in any way be separated from the reality of fuzziness industrial environment in Iraq, which led to use the fuzzy sets theory to reduce the levels of uncertainty.

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