The unstable and uncertain nature of natural rubber prices makes them highly volatile and prone to outliers, which can have a significant impact on both modeling and forecasting. To tackle this issue, the author recommends a hybrid model that combines the autoregressive (AR) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models. The model utilizes the Huber weighting function to ensure the forecast value of rubber prices remains sustainable even in the presence of outliers. The study aims to develop a sustainable model and forecast daily prices for a 12-day period by analyzing 2683 daily price data from Standard Malaysian Rubber Grade 20 (SMR 20) in Malaysia. The analysis incorporates two dispersion measurements (IQR/3 and Sn) and three levels of IO contamination 0%, 10%, and 20%. The results indicate that using the Huber weighting function with the IQR/3 measurement to build the AR(1)-GARCH(2,1) model leads to better sustainability. These findings have the potential to enhance the GARCH model by modifying the weighting function of the M-estimator
الخلفية: التهاب المفاصل الرَثَيَانِي أو الداء الرثياني أو الالتهاب المفصلي الروماتويدي هو مرض مزمن، من الأمراض الانضدادية التي تؤدي بالجهاز المناعي لمهاجمة المفاصل، مسببة التهابات وتدميرًا لها. ومن الممكن أيضًا أن يدمر جهاز المناعة أعضاء أخرى في الجسم مثل الرئتين والجلد. وفي بعض الحالات، يسبب المرض الإعاقة، مؤدية إلى فقدان القدرة على الحركة والإنتاجية. ويتم تشخيص المرض بواسطة تحاليل دم مخبرية مثل تحلي
... Show MoreA cut-off low is a closed low with a low value of geopotential height at the upper atmospheric levels that has been fully detached (cut-off) from the westerly flow and move independently. A cut-off low causes extreme rainfall events in the mid-latitudes regions. The main aim of this paper is to investigate the cut-off low at 500 hPa over Iraq from a synoptic point of view and the behavior of geopotential height at 500 hPa. To examine the association of the cut-off low at 500 hPa with rainfall events across Iraq, two case studies of heavy rainfall events from different times were conducted. The results showed that the cut-off low at 500 hPa with a low value of geopotential height will strengthen the low-pressure system at the surface, lea
... Show MoreThis study has been performed for knowing the nutritional and chemical content of one kind chamomile tea for infant and children available in the pharmacy. The results have been showed that the percentage of essential compounds which represented with moisture, protein, fat, carbohydrate, ash and calories as 7.09%,0.01%,0.01%,92,81%, 0.08% and 371,37 Kal./100g, respectively of dry weight. Also the results have been showed that the percentage of chamomile plant extract that added to the tea as 5.74%. And the result of chemical test for effective materials in alcoholic extract showed consist Tannis, Glycosides, Flavonoids, Alkialoids,and Resins.
This paper is an attempt to investigate the syntactic and semantic features of the English phrasal verbs. In this paper, phrasal verbs were classified into subgroups according to their syntactic and semantic characteristics. After giving a survey of literature written on the meaning and definition of phrasal verbs, two sections have been devoted to tackle the most important issues in this category of English verbs. Section one sheds light on the basic definitions of the term ‘phrasal verb’ which are, according to the researcher’s point of view, sufficient to cover the area of the study. In addition, it studies the number and the importance of phrasal verbs in English. Section two deals with the syntactic and semantic features of Engli
... Show MoreThis paper present a study about effect of the random phase and expansion of the scale sampling factors to improve the monochrome image hologram and compared it with previous produced others. Matlab software is used to synthesize and reconstruction hologram.
A variety of single-engine driven files and inematics have been introduced to improve the clinical performance of NiTi rotary files. The purpose of this in vitro study was to measure and compare the incidence of dentinal defects after root canal preparation with different single file systems.
This work is an experimental investigation for single basin-single slope solar still coupled with an evacuated tube solar collector. The work is carried out under the climatic conditions of Baghdad city (33.2456º North and East latitude, 44.3337º longitude) through certain days of the months of the year 2019 to study the impact of using evacuated tube solar collector on the daily productivity and efficiency under the outdoors climatic conditions. It was found that using the evacuated tube solar collector increase daily productivity from 2.175 kg/ to 2.95 kg/ for 9 hours (35.63 %) for clear days, also an enhancement about 10.97 % in daily efficiency.
The measurements of major and trace elements in different brands of milk powder selected from the Iraqis market via the X-ray fluorescence (XRF) Technique have been studied in the present work. The result of the measurements reveals the high concentrations of sodium, phosphorus, sulfur, chlorine, potassium, calcium and magnesium. Furthermore, low concentrations of aluminum, silicon, iron, bromine, molybdenum, iodine, barium, titanium, manganese, cobalt, chrome, nickel, copper, zinc and lead were detected. Neutron activation analysis (NAA) and Kjeldahl technique were also employed to determine the concentrations of nitrogen. It was found that the nitrogen concentration was in the range of (1.96 - 3.23) % which is within the permissible li
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