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Building a Sustainable GARCH Model to Forecast Rubber Price: Modified Huber Weighting Function Approach
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The unstable and uncertain nature of natural rubber prices makes them highly volatile and prone to outliers, which can have a significant impact on both modeling and forecasting. To tackle this issue, the author recommends a hybrid model that combines the autoregressive (AR) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models. The model utilizes the Huber weighting function to ensure the forecast value of rubber prices remains sustainable even in the presence of outliers. The study aims to develop a sustainable model and forecast daily prices for a 12-day period by analyzing 2683 daily price data from Standard Malaysian Rubber Grade 20 (SMR 20) in Malaysia. The analysis incorporates two dispersion measurements (IQR/3 and Sn) and three levels of IO contamination 0%, 10%, and 20%. The results indicate that using the Huber weighting function with the IQR/3 measurement to build the AR(1)-GARCH(2,1) model leads to better sustainability. These findings have the potential to enhance the GARCH model by modifying the weighting function of the M-estimator

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 14 2022
Journal Name
Civil Engineering Journal
Rutting Prediction of Hot Mix Asphalt Mixtures Modified by Nano silica and Subjected to Aging Process
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High-volume traffic with ultra-heavy axle loads combined with extremely hot weather conditions increases the propagation of rutting in flexible pavement road networks. Several studies suggested using nanomaterials in asphalt modification to delay the deterioration of asphalt pavement. The current work aims to improve the resistance of hot mix asphalt (HMA) to rutting by incorporating Nano Silica (NS) in specific concentrations. NS was blended into asphalt mixtures in concentrations of 2, 4, and 6% by weight of the binder. The behavior of asphalt mixtures subjected to aging was investigated at different stages (short-term and long-term aging). The performance characteristics of the asphalt mixtures were evaluated using the Marshall s

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Publication Date
Wed Jun 01 2011
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Competitiveness of an enterprise under a flexible manufacturing system. Manufacturing strategy and flexibility - Case study
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The research has designed for studying the relationship between manufacturing strategy and its flexibility under the flexible manufacturing system with their reflection on the competitive environmental performance of the firm. To interpret and tackle the problem, a hypothesis has formulated stating that “ the competitive performance of a firm is interpreted by the manufacturing strategy and flexibility which are derived from the firm and its business  strategies under the flexible manufacturing system”. Related literatures with their theoretical dissertations, which enhanced the thoughtful content, have analyzed. An illustrative case study on the flexible manufacturing system at Toyota Motors Corporation working at the g

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Publication Date
Fri Dec 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
A comparison between Bayesian Method and Full Maximum Likelihood to estimate Poisson regression model hierarchy and its application to the maternal deaths in Baghdad
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Abstract:

 This research aims to compare Bayesian Method and Full Maximum Likelihood to estimate hierarchical Poisson regression model.

The comparison was done by  simulation  using different sample sizes (n = 30, 60, 120) and different Frequencies (r = 1000, 5000) for the experiments as was the adoption of the  Mean Square Error to compare the preference estimation methods and then choose the best way to appreciate model and concluded that hierarchical Poisson regression model that has been appreciated Full Maximum Likelihood Full Maximum Likelihood  with sample size  (n = 30) is the best to represent the maternal mortality data after it has been reliance value param

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Publication Date
Fri Aug 01 2014
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Constructing Quality House To Improve Health Services – an applied research in Educational Baghdad Hospital
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     Quality function deployment tool is trying to improve health services through this study that will be applied in health sector environment , and be based on applying quality function deployment tool (QFD) TO preferable evaluation of main patients requirements in order to determine the technical requirements that need most attention across improving and developing health services .                

   Main requirements are determined to patients lying in the hospital (under research) which is (educational Baghdad \ medicine city office) in Baghdad, and other technical requirements through pers

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 20 2021
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
A Modified Symmetric Key Fully Homomorphic Encryption Scheme Based on Read-Muller Code
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Homomorphic encryption became popular and powerful cryptographic primitive for various cloud computing applications. In the recent decades several developments has been made. Few schemes based on coding theory have been proposed but none of them support unlimited operations with security.   We propose a modified Reed-Muller Code based symmetric key fully homomorphic encryption to improve its security by using message expansion technique. Message expansion with prepended random fixed length string provides one-to-many mapping between message and codeword, thus one-to many mapping between plaintext and ciphertext. The proposed scheme supports both (MOD 2) additive and multiplication operations unlimitedly.   We make an effort to prove

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Publication Date
Mon Dec 01 2014
Journal Name
2014 Ieee Symposium On Differential Evolution (sde)
Comparative analysis of a modified differential evolution algorithm based on bacterial mutation scheme
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A new modified differential evolution algorithm DE-BEA, is proposed to improve the reliability of the standard DE/current-to-rand/1/bin by implementing a new mutation scheme inspired by the bacterial evolutionary algorithm (BEA). The crossover and the selection schemes of the DE method are also modified to fit the new DE-BEA mechanism. The new scheme diversifies the population by applying to all the individuals a segment based scheme that generates multiple copies (clones) from each individual one-by-one and applies the BEA segment-wise mechanism. These new steps are embedded in the DE/current-to-rand/bin scheme. The performance of the new algorithm has been compared with several DE variants over eighteen benchmark functions including sever

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Publication Date
Fri Jul 21 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
A Modified 2D-Checksum Error Detecting Method for Data Transmission in Noisy Media
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In data transmission a change in single bit in the received data may lead to miss understanding or a disaster. Each bit in the sent information has high priority especially with information such as the address of the receiver. The importance of error detection with each single change is a key issue in data transmission field.
The ordinary single parity detection method can detect odd number of errors efficiently, but fails with even number of errors. Other detection methods such as two-dimensional and checksum showed better results and failed to cope with the increasing number of errors.
Two novel methods were suggested to detect the binary bit change errors when transmitting data in a noisy media.Those methods were: 2D-Checksum me

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Publication Date
Thu Feb 01 2024
Journal Name
Heliyon
Removal of amoxicillin from contaminated water using modified bentonite as a reactive material
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This study concerns the removal of a trihydrate antibiotic (Amoxicillin) from synthetically contaminated water by adsorption on modified bentonite. The bentonite was modified using hexadecyl trimethyl ammonium bromide (HTAB), which turned it from a hydrophilic to a hydrophobic material. The effects of different parameters were studied in batch experiments. These parameters were contact time, solution pH, agitation speed, initial concentration (C0) of the contaminant, and adsorbent dosage. Maximum removal of amoxicillin (93 %) was achieved at contact time = 240 min, pH = 10, agitation speed = 200 rpm, initial concentration = 30 ppm, and adsorbent dosage = 3 g bentonite per 1L of pollutant solution. The characterization of the adsorbent, modi

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Publication Date
Fri Jan 01 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Evaluation suppliers according to the integration of the Quality Function Deployment and the Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process
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The process of evaluating business processes, complex, repetition of procurement processes, need for raw materials and frequency of demand, which makes dealing with suppliers in the evaluation process, making the need for a process intervention in the process. Lighter on the other hand.

Many Iraqi companies suffer from problems related to suppliers, and cases of administrative and financial corruption are often raised regarding this type of contract and from this reality the necessity of researching this problem and trying to develop some solutions to reduce its impact on the companies' work, by using a method that works according to the standards adopted in Evaluation and selection of the supplier in the

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 01 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Use The moment method to Estimate the Reliability Function Of The Data Of Truncated Skew Normal Distribution
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The Estimation Of The Reliability Function Depends On The Accuracy Of The Data Used To Estimate The Parameters Of The Probability distribution, and Because Some Data Suffer from a Skew in their Data to Estimate the Parameters and Calculate the Reliability Function in light of the Presence of Some Skew in the Data, there must be a Distribution that has flexibility in dealing with that Data. As in the data of Diyala Company for Electrical Industries, as it was observed that there was a positive twisting in the data collected from the Power and Machinery Department, which required distribution that deals with those data and searches for methods that accommodate this problem and lead to accurate estimates of the reliability function,

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