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Building a Sustainable GARCH Model to Forecast Rubber Price: Modified Huber Weighting Function Approach
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The unstable and uncertain nature of natural rubber prices makes them highly volatile and prone to outliers, which can have a significant impact on both modeling and forecasting. To tackle this issue, the author recommends a hybrid model that combines the autoregressive (AR) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models. The model utilizes the Huber weighting function to ensure the forecast value of rubber prices remains sustainable even in the presence of outliers. The study aims to develop a sustainable model and forecast daily prices for a 12-day period by analyzing 2683 daily price data from Standard Malaysian Rubber Grade 20 (SMR 20) in Malaysia. The analysis incorporates two dispersion measurements (IQR/3 and Sn) and three levels of IO contamination 0%, 10%, and 20%. The results indicate that using the Huber weighting function with the IQR/3 measurement to build the AR(1)-GARCH(2,1) model leads to better sustainability. These findings have the potential to enhance the GARCH model by modifying the weighting function of the M-estimator

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Publication Date
Thu Feb 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Use Simulation To Differentiate Between Some Modern Methods To the Model GM(1,1) To Find Missing Values And Estimate Parameters With A Practical Application
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Abstract

       The grey system model GM(1,1) is the model of the prediction of the time series and the basis of the grey theory. This research presents the methods for estimating parameters of the grey model GM(1,1) is the accumulative method (ACC), the exponential method (EXP), modified exponential method (Mod EXP) and the Particle Swarm Optimization method (PSO). These methods were compared based on the Mean square error (MSE) and the Mean Absolute percentage error (MAPE) as a basis comparator and the simulation method was adopted for the best of the four methods, The best method was obtained and then applied to real data. This data represents the consumption rate of two types of oils a he

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Publication Date
Mon Nov 19 2018
Journal Name
Al–bahith Al–a'alami
A Proposed Vision for Editing News Forms
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This research deals with a very important subject as it tries to change the theoretical and scientific heritage and some professional rules adopted in the newsroom. Most media students have difficulties in writing news for press correctly. The researcher tries to identify the compatibility of what is published in local news agencies with professional and academic standards.
The research finds detailed editorial rules for a number of news formats which will play an important role in writing news for press easily, especially for the beginners and newcomers. Also, it discovers a new fact denying the beliefs of some researchers and writers in not having news conclusion in news edited according to the inverted pyramid pattern.
The re

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Publication Date
Wed Nov 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The trend to Joint Audit as an approach to Improve the Financial Reports Quality - An Applied Study –
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This study aimed at identifying the trend to applying the Joint Audit as an approach to improve the financial reports quality with all their characteristics (Relevance, Reliability, Comparability, Consistency), as well as enclose the difficulties that faced the auditors in the Gaza Strip in implementing the Joint Audit. In order to achieve the study aims, a measure was used to identify the trend to apply the Joint Audit and it was distributed to the study sample which is consisting of (119) individuals and retrieved thereof (99) valid for analysis, approximately (83.2%), (69) of them are Auditors, (30) financial managers and accountants. The researcher used the analytical descriptive method, and after analyzing the results, the s

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Publication Date
Sat Sep 30 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Evaluation of Investment Decisions in the health sector according to a strategic: Case study in Amir al-Mu'minin Specialized Hospital Approach
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                  The current study aims to apply the methods of evaluating investment decisions to extract the highest value and reduce the economic and environmental costs of the health sector according to the strategy.In order to achieve the objectives of the study, the researcher relied on the deductive approach in the theoretical aspect by collecting sources and previous studies. He also used the applied practical approach, relying on the data and reports of Amir almuminin Hospital for the period (2017-2031) for the purpose of evaluating investment decisions in the hospital. A set of conclusions, the most important of which is: The failure to apply

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Publication Date
Sun Jan 01 2023
Journal Name
Physical Mesomechanics Of Condensed Matter: Physical Principles Of Multiscale Structure Formation And The Mechanisms Of Nonlinear Behavior: Meso2022
Optimal control strategy applied to diabetes model
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Publication Date
Sun Aug 30 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Improve operational performance by simulating the Holonic manufacturing system A case study at the rubber product plant in Al-Najaf Al-Ashraf
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The research aims to improve operational performance through the application of the Holonic Manufacturing System (HMS) in the rubber products factory in Najaf. The problem was diagnosed with the weakness of the manufacturing system in the factory to meet customers' demands on time within the available resources of machines and workers, which led to time delays of Processing and delivery, increased costs, and reduced flexibility in the factory, A case study methodology used to identify the reality of the manufacturing system and the actual operational performance in the factory. The simulation was used to represent the proposed (HMS) by using (Excel 2010) based on the actual data and calculate the operational performance measures

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Publication Date
Mon Dec 11 2017
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Simulation Model of Wind Turbine Power Control System with Fuzzy Regulation by Mamdani and Larsen Algorithms
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Abstract 

     The aim of this work is to create a power control system for wind turbines based on fuzzy logic. Three power control loop was considered including: changing the pitch angle of  the blade, changing the length of the blade and turning the nacelle. The stochastic law was given for changes and instant inaccurate assessment of wind conditions changes. Two different algorithms were used for fuzzy inference in the control loop, the Mamdani and Larsen algorithms. These two different algorithms are materialized and developed in this study in Matlab-Fuzzy logic toolbox which has been practically implemented using necessary intelligent control system in electrical engineerin

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Publication Date
Thu Apr 01 2021
Journal Name
Iop Conference Series: Earth And Environmental Science
A greenway for sustainable transportation of the university campus: Diyala University as a case study
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Transportation is one of the aspects that enable us to achieve sustainability on a university campus, by taking environmental, social, and economic requirements. Walking is a green mode that can be essential to promoting sustainable transport. This study aims to evaluate the ability of campus physical development planning at Diyala University in creating sustainable transport on campus by determining the problems that exist. The research problem was identified in the absence of a comprehensive view of the importance of greenway network connectivity in the sustainability of the campus and the most important barriers that prevent it from being achieved and the incentives to be activated. The methodology used in this study was the quantitative

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Publication Date
Wed Aug 10 2022
Journal Name
Mathematics
Modeling and Analysis of the Influence of Fear on the Harvested Modified Leslie–Gower Model Involving Nonlinear Prey Refuge
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Understanding the effects of fear, quadratic fixed effort harvesting, and predator-dependent refuge are essential topics in ecology. Accordingly, a modified Leslie–Gower prey–predator model incorporating these biological factors is mathematically modeled using the Beddington–DeAngelis type of functional response to describe the predation processes. The model’s qualitative features are investigated, including local equilibria stability, permanence, and global stability. Bifurcation analysis is carried out on the temporal model to identify local bifurcations such as transcritical, saddle-node, and Hopf bifurcation. A comprehensive numerical inquiry is carried out using MATLAB to verify the obtained theoretical findings and und

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Publication Date
Fri Jan 01 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Some Properties of Polymer Modified Self-Compacting Concrete Exposed to Kerosene and Gas Oil
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This thesis aims to study the effect of addition polymer materials on mechanical properties of self-compacting concrete, and also to assess the influence of petroleum products (kerosene and gas oil) on mechanical properties of polymer modified self-compacting concrete (PMSCC) after different exposure periods of (30 ,60 ,90 ,and 180 days).

Two type of curing are used; 28 days in water for SCC and 2 days in water followed 26 days in air for PMSCC.

The test results show that the PMSCC (15% P/C ratio) which is exposed to oil products recorded a lower deterioration in compressive strength's values than reference concrete. The percentages of reduction in compressive strength values of PMSCC (15% P/C ratio) was

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