The unstable and uncertain nature of natural rubber prices makes them highly volatile and prone to outliers, which can have a significant impact on both modeling and forecasting. To tackle this issue, the author recommends a hybrid model that combines the autoregressive (AR) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models. The model utilizes the Huber weighting function to ensure the forecast value of rubber prices remains sustainable even in the presence of outliers. The study aims to develop a sustainable model and forecast daily prices for a 12-day period by analyzing 2683 daily price data from Standard Malaysian Rubber Grade 20 (SMR 20) in Malaysia. The analysis incorporates two dispersion measurements (IQR/3 and Sn) and three levels of IO contamination 0%, 10%, and 20%. The results indicate that using the Huber weighting function with the IQR/3 measurement to build the AR(1)-GARCH(2,1) model leads to better sustainability. These findings have the potential to enhance the GARCH model by modifying the weighting function of the M-estimator
Background: The immune system of the oral cavity suffers alterations due to fixed orthodontic treatment which act as potent stimulus for oral secretory immunity. The aims of this study are to estimate the effect of fixed orthodontic appliance on the level of salivary sIgA at different time intervals, and to verify the gender difference. Materials and method: The patient's history, clinical examination, and fixed orthodontic appliances were placed for 30 Iraqi orthodontic adult patients had class II division 1 and/ or class I malocclusion (15 males and 15 females) aged 18-25 years old. The unstimulated whole saliva was collected from each sample immediately before wearing fixed appliance (control group T0 as base line), and after 2 weeks (T1
... Show MoreThe goal of health awareness is to familiarize people with health information and facts, and make them realize their sense of responsibility towards their health and the health of others. And translate that goal in practice through applying healthy and sound behaviors spontaneously. This, the goal, is pursued by health awareness announcements through employing announcement persuasion of health as one of the methods of influencing the masses to adopt ideas, behaviors, and adherence to health advice and guidelines; The study aims to analyze the content of the Ministry of Health and Environment announcements regarding health awareness and to reveal the most employable persuasions in health awareness announcements
... Show MoreIn Baghdad city, Iraq, the traffic volumes have rapidly grown during the last 15 years. Road networks need to reevaluate and decide if they are operating properly or not regarding the increase in the number of vehicles. Al-Jadriyah intersection (a four-leg signalized intersection) and Kamal Junblat Square (a multi-lane roundabout), which are two important intersections in Baghdad city with high traffic volumes, were selected to be reevaluated by the SIDRA package in this research. Traffic volume and vehicle movement data were abstracted from videotapes by the Smart Traffic Analyzer (STA) Software. The performance measures include delay and LOS. The analysis results by SIDRA Intersection 8.0.1 show that the performance of the roundab
... Show MoreVagrancy is global problem, but its geographical distribution differs from one society
to another and from one place to another inside the same society.Till now there isn't a real factor that can explain the phenomenon, spite that economy plays aconstituent and distinguishing part, and spite the fact that Vagrancy is considered a realdeviation that can be compared with criminality level, and cannot be separated from its effecton family, local society and school. In addition to unprecedented work under heavily pressurethat attack to a minimum protection and safety. Vagrant may be a child, a teen, a young, or
even an old man. Vagrancy thus means different people with different ages and not onlyprecisely children. Vagrant is not neces
Current research sought to evaluate the performance and results of employees in accordance with normative to people and people result for the European model of excellence EFQM 2013 quality management Foundation in the Inspector General's Office/Ministry of health, so as to pursue a modern and advanced management methods in evaluating performance and the performance of the Office's relationship with a citizen's life, since it takes him beyond the accepted service capabilities today, but it became budget duties between dealers servicing responsibilities and future planning, financial control, competitiveness, human resources needs and maintaining quality and continuous improvement and development as well as The primary role of the
... Show MoreBreast cancer has got much attention in the recent years as it is a one of the complex diseases that can threaten people lives. It can be determined from the levels of secreted proteins in the blood. In this project, we developed a method of finding a threshold to classify the probability of being affected by it in a population based on the levels of the related proteins in relatively small case-control samples. We applied our method to simulated and real data. The results showed that the method we used was accurate in estimating the probability of being diseased in both simulation and real data. Moreover, we were able to calculate the sensitivity and specificity under the null hypothesis of our research question of being diseased o
... Show MoreAbstract:
Current research has sought to apply the criteria of potential for altmizalaorbi model EFQM 2013 in assessing the performance of the Inspector General's Office/Ministry of health, so as to keep up with a modern and advanced management methods in the evaluation of performance, as well as to link performance to a citizen's life, and it takes him beyond the accepted service capabilities today, but of budget duties between dealers servicing responsibilities and future planning, financial control, competitiveness, human resources needs and maintaining quality and development, as well as the constant quest for continuous improvement, is the spirit of the principle underpinning the European Foundation Quality managemen
... Show MoreStrategies to reduce obesity have become main priority for many health institution and health staff around the world, as the prevalence of obesity has risen and exacerbated in most of the world mainly because of the modern life style which tend to be more sedentary with an increase eating unhealthy fast western food. Many years ago, the lipid-lowering drug simvastatin; and omega-3 were considered as a traditional lipid-lowering drug that have been well-documented to possess anti-inflammatory, cardioprotective and triglyceride-lowering properties; and their co-administration may demonstrate a complementary effect in lowering patients' triglycerides and total cholesterol to treat atherosclero
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