The unstable and uncertain nature of natural rubber prices makes them highly volatile and prone to outliers, which can have a significant impact on both modeling and forecasting. To tackle this issue, the author recommends a hybrid model that combines the autoregressive (AR) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models. The model utilizes the Huber weighting function to ensure the forecast value of rubber prices remains sustainable even in the presence of outliers. The study aims to develop a sustainable model and forecast daily prices for a 12-day period by analyzing 2683 daily price data from Standard Malaysian Rubber Grade 20 (SMR 20) in Malaysia. The analysis incorporates two dispersion measurements (IQR/3 and Sn) and three levels of IO contamination 0%, 10%, and 20%. The results indicate that using the Huber weighting function with the IQR/3 measurement to build the AR(1)-GARCH(2,1) model leads to better sustainability. These findings have the potential to enhance the GARCH model by modifying the weighting function of the M-estimator
Abstract
This study aims at clarifying the current performance appraisal system in government units and the extent to which they contribute to the development of the performance of these units by evaluating and measuring the performance of these units on an ongoing basis to subject their services to an assessment and measurement process in order to improve the efficiency of these units to reach their objectives efficiently and effectively. (Iraqi hospitals) by trying to determine the possibility of the government accounting system in the process of evaluating performance, through the comparison of financial performance for successive years and different hospitals using the financial and non-financial model of the evaluati
... Show MoreAbstract:-
The approach maintenance and replacement one of techniques of operations research whom cares of the failure experienced by a lot of production lines which consist of a set of machines and equipment, which in turn exposed to the failure or work stoppages over the lifetime, which requires reducing the working time of these machines or equipment below what can or conuct maintenance process once in a while or a replacement for one part of the machine or replace one of the machines in production lines. In this research is the study of the failure s that occur in some parts of one of the machines for the General Company for Vege
... Show MoreCare and attention to the structure in the sixties of the last century replaced the mark, and if the structure of Ms. pampered in research and studies, it has become the mark is also a spoiled lady .. But the relationship between the structure and the mark was not a break and break, but the relationship of integration, His themes are structural analysis, and these are intellectual themes that can not be surpassed in contemporary research, especially since semiotics have emerged from the linguistic inflection.
We have tried to distinguish between text and speech, which is a daunting task, as it seems that whenever the difference between them is clear and clear, we come back to wonder whether the text is the same discourse, and is
... Show MoreTable tennis is considered one of the fast base sports that the player needs to have the speed of performance and awareness, especially in straight forward and back strikes, which is an important offensive skills, and the player success depends on his perception speed to the point of the fall of the ball in the arena of his competitor. But there is no way to measure cognitive processing speed. Therefore, the researchers sought to design a test that measures this ability to ensure its scientific evaluation, and then establish standard scores for this test for the players of the specialized school of table tennis, to help evaluate them objectively and move away from subjective estimates when evaluating and developing measuring instruments in
... Show MoreIt is known that life is as series of variety of difficult problems that individual looks
forward to overcome so as to achieve adaptation and to reach the desired aims .The transition
of the students from the school stage to the stage of the university is actually regarded a
dramatic change where students face when they enter university life that differs from what
they lived in secondary school.
The executive functions are considered the main element that participate in solving the
problems of high orders , because it involves the mental abilities that assist individual to
think and initiative as well as solving problems .
These functions include operational planning and the activated memory and inhibition of
q
Background: The American Joint committee on Cancer in their 8th edition staging manual regarded perineural invasion as one of the most important prognostic factors for Lip and Oral Cavity Squamous Cell Carcinoma, it also incorporated tumor depth of invasion in defining tumor size category in the new staging system. This study was conducted to evaluate the frequency of perineural invasion in oral squamous cell carcinoma and the effect of approaching tumor depth in this process. Materials and Methods: fifty-four formalin fixed paraffin embedded tissue blocks of radical resections of Oral Squamous Cell Carcinoma were cut and stained with Hematoxylin and Eosin stain, then evaluated for perineural invasion, with estimation of tumor depth of i
... Show MoreThe purpose of this paper to discriminate between the poetic poems of each poet depending on the characteristics and attribute of the Arabic letters. Four categories used for the Arabic letters, letters frequency have been included in a multidimensional contingency table and each dimension has two or more levels, then contingency coefficient calculated.
The paper sample consists of six poets from different historical ages, and each poet has five poems. The method was programmed using the MATLAB program, the efficiency of the proposed method is 53% for the whole sample, and between 90% and 95% for each poet's poems.