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Building a Sustainable GARCH Model to Forecast Rubber Price: Modified Huber Weighting Function Approach
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The unstable and uncertain nature of natural rubber prices makes them highly volatile and prone to outliers, which can have a significant impact on both modeling and forecasting. To tackle this issue, the author recommends a hybrid model that combines the autoregressive (AR) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models. The model utilizes the Huber weighting function to ensure the forecast value of rubber prices remains sustainable even in the presence of outliers. The study aims to develop a sustainable model and forecast daily prices for a 12-day period by analyzing 2683 daily price data from Standard Malaysian Rubber Grade 20 (SMR 20) in Malaysia. The analysis incorporates two dispersion measurements (IQR/3 and Sn) and three levels of IO contamination 0%, 10%, and 20%. The results indicate that using the Huber weighting function with the IQR/3 measurement to build the AR(1)-GARCH(2,1) model leads to better sustainability. These findings have the potential to enhance the GARCH model by modifying the weighting function of the M-estimator

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Publication Date
Wed Jul 01 2015
Journal Name
Al–bahith Al–a'alami
Building the News Agenda in Iraqi Newspapers and Patterns of Bias in their Sources
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News are considered the most press arts that supply the target audiences with daily information and events happened inside and outside society since it is formed by depending on its resources which have a deep relation with formal corporations to gain their satisfaction in order to support their authority and spreading their domination by using mass media in editing their viewpoints and achieving wide acceptance among public opinion. In the field of technological development and changing in the fields of politics, society, culture, economics etc. inside Iraqi society and democratic transition help to convert news agenda from independent variation to a fellow variation while in the past the variation of mass media was the independent one

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 01 2015
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Modified Grid Clustering Technique to Predict Heat Transfer Coefficient in a Duct of Arbitrary Cross Section Area
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A simple straightforward mathematical method has been developed to cluster grid nodes on a boundary segment of an arbitrary geometry that can be fitted by a relevant polynomial. The method of solution is accomplished in two steps. At the first step, the length of the boundary segment is evaluated by using the mean value theorem, then grids are clustered as desired, using relevant linear clustering functions. At the second step, as the coordinates cell nodes have been computed and the incremental distance between each two nodes has been evaluated, the original coordinate of each node is then computed utilizing the same fitted polynomial with the mean value theorem but reversibly.

The method is utilized to predict

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Publication Date
Fri Sep 06 2024
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Comparison of Some Wavelet Transformations to Estimate Nonparametric Regression Function
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The purpose of this article is to improve and minimize noise from the signal by studying wavelet transforms and showing how to use the most effective ones for processing and analysis. As both the Discrete Wavelet Transformation method was used, we will outline some transformation techniques along with the methodology for applying them to remove noise from the signal. Proceeds based on the threshold value and the threshold functions Lifting Transformation, Wavelet Transformation, and Packet Discrete Wavelet Transformation. Using AMSE, A comparison was made between them , and the best was selected. When the aforementioned techniques were applied to actual data that was represented by each of the prices, it became evident that the lift

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Publication Date
Wed Jun 01 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Box and Jenkins use models to predict the numbers of patients with hepatitis Alvairose in Iraq
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The time series of statistical methods mission followed in this area analysis method, Figuring certain displayed on a certain period of time and analysis we can identify the pattern and the factors affecting them and use them to predict the future of the phenomenon of values, which helps to develop a way of predicting the development of the economic development of sound

The research aims to select the best model to predict the number of infections with hepatitis Alvairose models using Box - Jenkins non-seasonal forecasting in the future.

Data were collected from the Ministry of Health / Department of Health Statistics for the period (from January 2009 until December 2013) was used

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Publication Date
Tue Jul 01 2014
Journal Name
International Journal Of Artificial Intelligence And Mechatronics
Building a Three-Axis CNC Milling Machine Control System
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CNC machines are widely used in production fields since they produce similar parts in a minimum time, at higher speed and with possibly minimum error. A control system is designed, implemented and tested to control the operation of a laboratory CNC milling machine having three axes that are moved by using a stepper motor attached to each axis. The control system includes two parts, hardware part and software part, the hardware part used a PC (works as controller) connected to the CNC machine through its parallel port by using designed interface circuit. The software part includes the algorithms needed to control the CNC. The sample needs to be machined is drawn by using one of the drawing software like AUTOCAD or 3D MAX and is saved in a we

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Publication Date
Mon Feb 20 2023
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Modeling and Analyzing the Influence of Fear on the Harvested Modified Leslie-Gower Model
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A modified Leslie-Gower predator-prey model with a Beddington-DeAngelis functional response is proposed and studied. The purpose is to examine the effects of fear and quadratic fixed effort harvesting on the system's dynamic behavior. The model's qualitative properties, such as local equilibria stability, permanence, and global stability, are examined. The analysis of local bifurcation has been studied. It is discovered that the system experiences a saddle-node bifurcation at the survival equilibrium point whereas a transcritical bifurcation occurs at the boundary equilibrium point. Additionally established are the prerequisites for Hopf bifurcation existence. Finally, using MATLAB, a numerical investigation is conducted to verify t

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Publication Date
Thu Dec 01 2011
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Physics
Design of Achromatic Combined Quadrupole Lens Using the Modified Bell-Shaped Field Distribution Model
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The optimization calculations are made to find the optimum properties of combined quadrupole lens consist of electrostatic and magnetic lenses to produce achromatic lens. The modified bell-shaped model is used and the calculation is made by solving the equation of motion and finding the transfer matrices in convergence and divergence planes, these matrices are used to find the properties of lens as the magnification and aberrations coefficients. To find the optimum values of chromatic and spherical aberrations coefficients, the effect of both the excitation parameter of the lens (n) and the effective length of the lens into account as effective parameters in the optimization processing

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Publication Date
Sat Apr 01 2017
Journal Name
Iosr Journal Of Computer Engineering (iosr-jce)
A New Approach to DNA, RNA, and Protein Motifs Templates Visualization and Analysis via Compilation Technique
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Motifs template is the input for many bioinformatics systems such codons finding, transcription, transaction, sequential pattern miner, and bioinformatics databases analysis. The size of motifs arranged from one base up to several Mega bases, therefore, the typing errors increase according to the size of motifs. In addition, when the structures motifs are submitted to bioinformatics systems, the specifications of motifs components are required, i.e. the simple motifs, gaps, and the lower bound and upper bound of each gap. The motifs can be of DNA, RNA, or Protein. In this research, a motif parser and visualization module is designed depending on a proposed a context free grammar, CFG, and colors human recognition system. GFC describes the m

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 15 2021
Journal Name
Nasaq
A Corpus-Based Approach to the Study of Vocabulary in English Textbooks for Iraqi Intermediate Schools
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Learning the vocabulary of a language has great impact on acquiring that language. Many scholars in the field of language learning emphasize the importance of vocabulary as part of the learner's communicative competence, considering it the heart of language. One of the best methods of learning vocabulary is to focus on those words of high frequency. The present article is a corpus based approach to the study of vocabulary whereby the research data are analyzed quantitatively using the software program "AntWordprofiler". This program analyses new input research data in terms of already stored reliable corpora. The aim of this article is to find out whether the vocabularies used in the English textbook for Intermediate Schools in Iraq are con

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Publication Date
Wed Jun 30 2021
Journal Name
Iraqi Geological Journal
The Effect of Weighting Materials on the Rheological Properties of Iraqi and Commercial Bentonite in Direct Emulsion
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Numerous drilling additives and materials are used continuously because they are necessary to support and give the required properties of the drilling fluid so that to ensure the stability of the borehole. This paper aspires to evaluate the rheological properties of bentonite (montmorillonite) Trefawey as an alternative to using commercial bentonite. Monitoring and evaluating of the rheological and filtration properties were prepared. This exertion aims to focus on the effect of hematite, and barite on the rheological properties of the three aforementioned bentonite types. An improvement in the rheological properties of bentonite (montmorillonite). Trefawey was observed after adding the previous heavy materials. Hematite has by some

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