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Building a Sustainable GARCH Model to Forecast Rubber Price: Modified Huber Weighting Function Approach
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The unstable and uncertain nature of natural rubber prices makes them highly volatile and prone to outliers, which can have a significant impact on both modeling and forecasting. To tackle this issue, the author recommends a hybrid model that combines the autoregressive (AR) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models. The model utilizes the Huber weighting function to ensure the forecast value of rubber prices remains sustainable even in the presence of outliers. The study aims to develop a sustainable model and forecast daily prices for a 12-day period by analyzing 2683 daily price data from Standard Malaysian Rubber Grade 20 (SMR 20) in Malaysia. The analysis incorporates two dispersion measurements (IQR/3 and Sn) and three levels of IO contamination 0%, 10%, and 20%. The results indicate that using the Huber weighting function with the IQR/3 measurement to build the AR(1)-GARCH(2,1) model leads to better sustainability. These findings have the potential to enhance the GARCH model by modifying the weighting function of the M-estimator

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Publication Date
Mon May 19 2025
Journal Name
Retos
The effect of the cube model on visual-spatial intelligence and learning the skill of spiking in volleyball for female students
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Objective: To identify the effect of the cube model on visual-spatial intelligence and learning the skill of spikinging in volleyball for female students, The researchers used the experimental method by designing two equivalent groups with pre- and post-measurements. Research methodology: The main research sample of (30) female students was selected from the research community represented by second-stage students in the College of Physical Education and Sports Sciences - University of Baghdad for the academic year (2024-2025). The sample was divided equally into two control and experimental groups. The researchers conducted the sample homogenization process and the equivalence process between the two groups in the variables of visua

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Publication Date
Mon Jan 02 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
The effectiveness of the structural model of learning in the acquisition of geographical concepts among students of the first grade average)
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The current research aims to find out ( the effectiveness of the structural model of learning in the acquisition of geographical concepts at the first grade average students ) , and achieving the goals of research has been formulating the null hypothesis of the following :

    " There is no difference statistically significant when Mistoi (0.5 ) between the mean scores of the collection of students in the experimental group that is studying the general geographical principles " Bonmozj constructivist learning " and the mean scores of the control group , which is considering the same article ," the traditional way " to acquire concepts.

The researcher adopted th

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Publication Date
Sat Oct 01 2022
Journal Name
Lark Journal
The role of metaphor in the embodiment of female images (In the novel by Ludmila Ulitskaya "Sincerely Yours Shurik" as model)
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The research deals with metaphors as being one of the primary means used by Lyudmila Ulitskaya when writing the novel " Sincerely Yours Shurik ", to form diverse and multifaceted collective female images of representatives of the classic psychological patterns presented in the work. This research reflects the results of the study related to the work of Lyudmila Yevkinevna Ulitskaya, an actress of modern Russian prose. The novel "The Sincerely to You Shorek" is one of Ludmila Ulitskaya's creations (the year of writing - 2003), which, like her other works, is distinguished by a unique presentation style, rich vocabulary, lexical and semantic diversity, and a special style of writing. writer. The main objective of the research is to look at th

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Publication Date
Tue Feb 01 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of African Earth Sciences
Lithofacies types, mineralogical assemblages and depositional model of the Maastrichtian–Danian successions in the Western Desert of Iraq and eastern Jordan
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An integrated lithofacies and mineralogical assemblage was used to describe a depositional model and sequence stratigraphic framework of the Maastrichtian–Danian succession in the Western Desert of Iraq and eastern Jordan. Fifteen lithofacies types were grouped into three associations recognized in a distally steepened ramp characterized by an apparent, distinct increase in a gradient paleobathymetric deepening westward. The clay and nonclay minerals are dominated by smectite and palygorskite, with trace amounts of kaolinite, sepiolite, illite and chlorite. Meanwhile, quartz, calcite, dolomite, opal CT (Cristobalite - Tridymite), and apatite are the main nonclay minerals. The widely dominated smectite in the Western Phosphatic Basin of Ir

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Publication Date
Mon Mar 07 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
The Effect of Renzulli Model on Achievement and Holistic Thinking among Fifth Grade Students in the Holy Quran and Islamic Education
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The present study aims at identifying the effect of Renzulli model on achievement and holistic thinking among the fifth grade students in the Holy Quran and Islamic Education. The experimental method with partial control was used, and the sample was chosen randomly. The sample consisted of (62) students distributed into experimental and control groups. 164 behavioral goals were formulated based on Bloom's first three levels taxonomy (knowledge and comprehension, application, analysis and installation, and evaluation). The researchers designed a post-test to measure the achievement of students in the subject of Holy Quran and Islamic Education which consisted of (40) objective items and a measure of holistic thinking which consisted of (3

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Publication Date
Thu Mar 31 2022
Journal Name
Iraqi Geological Journal
Geological Model of the Khabour Reservoir for Studying the Gas Condensate Blockage Effect on Gas Production, Akkas Gas Field, Western Iraq
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The Khabour reservoir, Ordovician, Lower Paleozoic, Akkas gas field which is considered one of the main sandstone reservoirs in the west of Iraq. Researchers face difficulties in recognizing sandstone reservoirs since they are virtually always tight and heterogeneous. This paper is associated with the geological modeling of a gas-bearing reservoir that containing condensate appears while production when bottom hole pressure declines below the dew point. By defining the lithology and evaluating the petrophysical parameters of this complicated reservoir, a geological model for the reservoir is being built by using CMG BUILDER software (GEM tool) to create a static model. The petrophysical properties of a reservoir were computed using

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Publication Date
Sat Jan 01 2022
Journal Name
International Journal Of Applied Science And Engineering
The effect of model scale, acceleration history, and soil condition on closed-ended pipe pile response under coupled static-dynamic loads
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This paper analyzes the effect of scaling-up model and acceleration history on seismic response of closed-ended pipe pile using a finite element modeling approach and the findings of 1 g shaking table tests of a pile embedded in dry and saturated soils. A number of scaling laws were used to create the numerical modeling according to the data obtained from 1 g shake table tests performed in the laboratory. The current study found that the behaviors of the scaled models, in general have similar trends. From numerical modeling on both the dry and saturated sands, the normalized lateral displacement, bending moment, and vertical displacement of piles with scale factors of 2 and 35 are less than those of the pile with a scale factor of 1 and the

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 19 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
The Effect of Using the Generative Learning Model on the Achievement of First-Grade Intermediate Students of Chemical Concepts in Science
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Abstract

The current research aims to identify the effect of using a model of generative learning in the achievement of first-middle students of chemical concepts in science. The researcher adopted the null hypothesis, which is there is no statistically significant difference at the level (0.05) between the mean scores of the experimental group who study using the generative learning model and the average scores of the control group who study using the traditional method in the chemical concepts achievement test. The research consisted of (200) students of the first intermediate at Al-Farqadin Intermediate School for Boys affiliated with the Directorate of General Education in Baghdad Governorate / Al-Karkh 3 wit

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Publication Date
Fri Feb 02 2024
Journal Name
Kurdish Studies
The Impact of the Brain Consensus Model on the Acquisition of Arabic Grammar Concepts for Female Students in the Fourth Grade
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Objectives: To identify the impact of the brain consensus model on the acquisition of Arabic grammar concepts among students in the fourth grade, methodology: The pilot curriculum was used, and a partial control pilot design was adopted. There were 30 female students in the pilot group, 30 female students in the control group, and the two researchers were statistically rewarded among the two groups' students in some variables and used appropriate statistical means to analyse the results, including the test for two independent samples, the square (c2) and the Alpha Kronbach equation.Results: The pilot group outperformed the control group. The results showed that there is a significant statistical difference at the indicative level (0.05) for

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Publication Date
Thu Apr 01 2021
Journal Name
Complexity
Bayesian Regularized Neural Network Model Development for Predicting Daily Rainfall from Sea Level Pressure Data: Investigation on Solving Complex Hydrology Problem
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Prediction of daily rainfall is important for flood forecasting, reservoir operation, and many other hydrological applications. The artificial intelligence (AI) algorithm is generally used for stochastic forecasting rainfall which is not capable to simulate unseen extreme rainfall events which become common due to climate change. A new model is developed in this study for prediction of daily rainfall for different lead times based on sea level pressure (SLP) which is physically related to rainfall on land and thus able to predict unseen rainfall events. Daily rainfall of east coast of Peninsular Malaysia (PM) was predicted using SLP data over the climate domain. Five advanced AI algorithms such as extreme learning machine (ELM), Bay

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