The unstable and uncertain nature of natural rubber prices makes them highly volatile and prone to outliers, which can have a significant impact on both modeling and forecasting. To tackle this issue, the author recommends a hybrid model that combines the autoregressive (AR) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models. The model utilizes the Huber weighting function to ensure the forecast value of rubber prices remains sustainable even in the presence of outliers. The study aims to develop a sustainable model and forecast daily prices for a 12-day period by analyzing 2683 daily price data from Standard Malaysian Rubber Grade 20 (SMR 20) in Malaysia. The analysis incorporates two dispersion measurements (IQR/3 and Sn) and three levels of IO contamination 0%, 10%, and 20%. The results indicate that using the Huber weighting function with the IQR/3 measurement to build the AR(1)-GARCH(2,1) model leads to better sustainability. These findings have the potential to enhance the GARCH model by modifying the weighting function of the M-estimator
The problem of slow learning in primary schools’ pupils is not a local or private one. It is also not related to a certain society other than others or has any relation to a particular culture, it is rather an international problem of global nature. It is one of the well-recognized issues in education field. Additionally, it is regarded as one of the old difficulties to which ancient people gave attention. It is discovered through the process of observing human behaviour and attempting to explain and predict it.
Through the work of the two researchers via frequent visits to primary schools that include special classes for slow learning pupils, in addition to the fact that one of the researcher has a child with slow learning issue, t
: Sound forecasts are essential elements of planning, especially for dealing with seasonality, sudden changes in demand levels, strikes, large fluctuations in the economy, and price-cutting manoeuvres for competition. Forecasting can help decision maker to manage these problems by identifying which technologies are appropriate for their needs. The proposal forecasting model is utilized to extract the trend and cyclical component individually through developing the Hodrick–Prescott filter technique. Then, the fit models of these two real components are estimated to predict the future behaviour of electricity peak load. Accordingly, the optimal model obtained to fit the periodic component is estimated using spectrum analysis and Fourier mod
... Show MoreThis competition between competing forces, organized into axes with conflicting objectives, is reflected in all regional affairs and the goals and interests of countries within them, including Iraq. Among the most important aspects impacted by the repercussions of international and regional competition in the region is Iraqi national security, based on its vital importance in preserving the sovereignty and entity of the Iraqi state, protecting the interests and cohesion of the state and people, ensuring and defending their present and future, and interacting with various regional and international activities. The Kurdistan Region, as an important part of Iraq with its own unique characteristics, may be one of the most important regi
... Show MoreThe purpose of this paper is to identifying the values of some physical and Bio- Kinematic variables during the performance of the jump spike serve skill, and identifying the effect of the proposed training program using intermittent training to develop some physical and Bio- Kinematic variables and accuracy of the jump spike serve skill among the research sample. The experimental method was used and the research was conducted on a deliberately chosen sample of the players of the Army Club, who were primarily advanced in volleyball, and the number of the sample was (10) players. The conclusions were reached that the proposed training program using intermittent training has a positive effect on some of the physical and Bio- Kinematic variabl
... Show MoreThe current research seeks to achieve several objectives, including knowing the extent of the audit directorate of the Ministry of Construction, Housing and General Municipalities of the International Standard (ISO19011:2018) regarding determining the efficiency and evaluation of auditors and diagnosing the gap between requirements and application and knowing the reasons for not applying some of the items in the standard, starting from the problem, The field raised the following question (Does the audit directorate determine the efficiency and evaluation of auditors according to the standard ISO19011:2018?), and the importance of research lies in determining the return that can be achieved by the directorate through its application of stand
... Show MoreThe subject of social capital is of great importance, as it provides an analytical framework for researchers interested in understanding the impact of the Internet on many dimensions of human and social life. And because social networking sites have infiltrated societies and produced new variables at the level of human and social communication, this study came to examine the relationship between the use of the social networking site Facebook and the accumulation of social capital among a sample of University of Algeria 3 students, by researching the variables of intensity of use and patterns of use as independent variables and their relationship to social capital. The results of the field study revealed a strong relationship between the
... Show MoreBackground: Tumor necrosis factor-alpha (TNF-α) and interleukins play important roles in the pathogenesis of rheumatoid arthritis (RA). Genetic research has been employed to find many of the missing connections between genetic risk variations and causal genetic components. Objective: The goal of this study is to look at the genetic variations of TNF-α and interleukins in Iraqi RA patients and see how they relate to disease severity or response to biological therapy. Method: Using specific keywords, the authors conducted a systematic and comprehensive search to identify relevant Iraqi studies examining the genetic variations of TNF-α and interleukins in Iraqi RA patients and how they relate to disease severity or response to biolo
... Show MoreIn the present work, the magnetic dipole and electric quadrupole moments for some sodium isotopes have been calculated using the shell model, considering the effect of the two-body effective interactions and the single-particle potentials. These isotopes are; 21Na (3/2+), 23Na (3/2+), 25Na (5/2+), 26Na (3+), 27Na (5/2+), 28Na (1+) and, 29Na (3/2+). The one-body transition density matrix elements (OBDM) have been calculated using the (USDA, USDB, HBUMSD and W) two-body effective interactions carried out in the sd-shell model space. The sd shell model space consists of the active 2s1/2, 1d5/2,
... Show MoreThe study was aimed to evaluate the marketing efficiency of dry Onion crop in Salah al-Deen, as estimate the impact of some quality and quantity factors in the efficiency of marketing process of crop using Tobit regression model. The average marketing efficiency of the research sample was 71.3686%. The marketing margins differed according to the marketing channel followed in marketing the crop. The qualitative and quantitative variables in the model are productivity, family size, distance from the market, educational level. The estimated model revealed that a variable productivity is the most important and influential in marketing efficiency, followed by the variable of the distance between the farm and the market, then the variable
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