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Building a Sustainable GARCH Model to Forecast Rubber Price: Modified Huber Weighting Function Approach
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The unstable and uncertain nature of natural rubber prices makes them highly volatile and prone to outliers, which can have a significant impact on both modeling and forecasting. To tackle this issue, the author recommends a hybrid model that combines the autoregressive (AR) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models. The model utilizes the Huber weighting function to ensure the forecast value of rubber prices remains sustainable even in the presence of outliers. The study aims to develop a sustainable model and forecast daily prices for a 12-day period by analyzing 2683 daily price data from Standard Malaysian Rubber Grade 20 (SMR 20) in Malaysia. The analysis incorporates two dispersion measurements (IQR/3 and Sn) and three levels of IO contamination 0%, 10%, and 20%. The results indicate that using the Huber weighting function with the IQR/3 measurement to build the AR(1)-GARCH(2,1) model leads to better sustainability. These findings have the potential to enhance the GARCH model by modifying the weighting function of the M-estimator

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Publication Date
Fri Apr 12 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Compare between simex and Quassi-likelihood methods in estimation of regression function in the presence of measurement error
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       In recent years, the attention of researchers has increased of semi-parametric regression models, because it is possible to integrate the parametric and non-parametric regression models in one and then form a regression model has the potential to deal with the cruse of dimensionality in non-parametric models that occurs through the increasing of explanatory variables. Involved in the analysis and then decreasing the accuracy of the estimation. As well as the privilege of this type of model with flexibility in the application field compared to the parametric models which comply with certain conditions such as knowledge of the distribution of errors or the parametric models may

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Publication Date
Wed Oct 26 2022
Journal Name
Petroleum Science And Technology
Building 3D geological model using non-uniform gridding for Mishrif reservoir in Garraf oilfield
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Publication Date
Mon Feb 01 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Effectiveness of Nanomaterial in the Roof of the Building to Achieve Energy Conservation for Indoor Environment of the Building
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The construction sector consumes large amounts of energy during the lifetime of a building. This consumption starts with manufacturing and transferring building materials to the sites and demolishing this building after a long time of occupying it. The topic of energy conservation and finding the solution inside the building spaces become an important and urgent necessity. It is known that the roof is exposed to a high amount of thermal loads compared to other elements in a building envelope, so this needs some solutions and treatments to control the flow of the heat through them. These solutions and treatments may be achieved by using nanomaterials. Recently, nanomaterials have high properties, so that this made them go

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Publication Date
Fri Oct 20 2023
Journal Name
Ibn Al-haitham Journal For Pure And Applied Sciences
Building an Analytical Method to Study Cantilever Beam Dynamic Response
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Cantilever beams are used in many crucial applications in machinery and construction. For example, the airplane wing, the microscopic probe for atomic force measurement, the tower crane overhang and twin overhang folding bridge are typical examples of cantilever beams. The current research aims to develop an analytical solution for the free vibration problem of cantilever beams. The dynamic response of AISI 304 beam represented by the natural frequencies was determined under different working surrounding temperatures ((-100 ℃ to 400 ℃)). A Matlab code was developed to achieve the analytical solution results, considering the effect of some beam geometrical dimensions. The developed analytical solution has been verified successful

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 20 2011
Journal Name
المؤتمر الدولي الثالث للاحصائيين العرب
Use a form ARX(p,q) to estimate time series for the Iraqi Economy
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Due to the lack of statistical researches in studying with existing (p) of Exogenous Input variables, and there contributed in time series phenomenon as a cause, yielding (q) of Output variables as a result in time series field, to form conceptual idea similar to the Classical Linear Regression that studies the relationship between dependent variable with explanatory variables. So highlight the importance of providing such research to a full analysis of this kind of phenomena important in consumer price inflation in Iraq. Were taken several variables influence and with a direct connection to the phenomenon and analyzed after treating the problem of outliers existence in the observations by (EM) approach, and expand the sample size (n=36) to

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 01 2020
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
A Modified Support Vector Machine Classifiers Using Stochastic Gradient Descent with Application to Leukemia Cancer Type Dataset
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Support vector machines (SVMs) are supervised learning models that analyze data for classification or regression. For classification, SVM is widely used by selecting an optimal hyperplane that separates two classes. SVM has very good accuracy and extremally robust comparing with some other classification methods such as logistics linear regression, random forest, k-nearest neighbor and naïve model. However, working with large datasets can cause many problems such as time-consuming and inefficient results. In this paper, the SVM has been modified by using a stochastic Gradient descent process. The modified method, stochastic gradient descent SVM (SGD-SVM), checked by using two simulation datasets. Since the classification of different ca

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Publication Date
Wed Oct 01 2014
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
knowledge strategic abilities And impact in the building of competitive advantage Field research the views of a sample of the administrative leaders of the Iraqi private banks
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The research synthesis variables of competitive advantage and the mechanism achieved by focusing on knowledge abilities and strategic of the administrative leadership, and governments and the developed countries took the racing frantically and my destiny to invest more money and resources to development of wealth and human knowledge is so choice investment winner always and who Aaikhyee never, because God Almighty give humans the abilities of all other creatures and that these abilities varying from person to person, there is the problem of search provoking questions about the essence of what it's about research and both sides theoretical and field, the objective of this research

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Publication Date
Fri Jun 01 2012
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
"RUF procedures forgetting the best subset linear regression model"
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The purpose behind building the linear regression model is to describe the real linear relation between any explanatory variable in the model and the dependent one, on the basis of the fact that the dependent variable is a linear function of the explanatory variables and one can use it for prediction and control. This purpose does not cometrue without getting significant, stable and reasonable estimatros for the parameters of the model, specifically regression-coefficients. The researcher found that "RUF" the criterian that he had suggested accurate and sufficient to accomplish that purpose when multicollinearity exists provided that the adequate model that satisfies the standard assumpitions of the error-term can be assigned. It

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 01 2015
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The impact of the integrative role of the Business Intelligence system and Knowledge Conversion Processes in Building a learning organization A field research in Korek telecom company in Baghdad city
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Purpose:  The research aims to explore the impact Business Intelligence System (BIS) and Knowledge Conversion Processes (KCP) in the Building Learning Organization (LO) in KOREK Telecom Company in Baghdad city.

Design/methodology/approach: in order to achieve the objectives of the research has been the development of a questionnaire prepared for this purpose and then has tested the search in the telecommunications sector, representatives of one of the telecommunications companies in Baghdad city, has therefore chosen KOREK Telecom company as a sample for research, and the choice was based on the best standard international companies to serve mobile communications in terms o

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Publication Date
Wed Jun 01 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
A Novel Analytical Model to Design Piezoelectric Patches Used to Repair Cracked Beams
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In this paper, an analytical solution describing the deflection of a cracked beam repaired with piezoelectric patch is introduced. The solution is derived using perturbation method. A novel analytical model to calculate the proper dimensions of piezoelectric patches used to repair cracked beams is also introduced. This model shows that the thickness of the piezoelectric patch depends mainly on the thickness of the cracked beam, the electro-mechanical properties of the patch material, the applied load and the crack location. Furthermore, the model shows that the length of the piezoelectric patches depends on the thickness of the patch as well as it depends on the length of the cracked beam and the crack depth. The additional flexibil

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