The unstable and uncertain nature of natural rubber prices makes them highly volatile and prone to outliers, which can have a significant impact on both modeling and forecasting. To tackle this issue, the author recommends a hybrid model that combines the autoregressive (AR) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models. The model utilizes the Huber weighting function to ensure the forecast value of rubber prices remains sustainable even in the presence of outliers. The study aims to develop a sustainable model and forecast daily prices for a 12-day period by analyzing 2683 daily price data from Standard Malaysian Rubber Grade 20 (SMR 20) in Malaysia. The analysis incorporates two dispersion measurements (IQR/3 and Sn) and three levels of IO contamination 0%, 10%, and 20%. The results indicate that using the Huber weighting function with the IQR/3 measurement to build the AR(1)-GARCH(2,1) model leads to better sustainability. These findings have the potential to enhance the GARCH model by modifying the weighting function of the M-estimator
Cox regression model have been used to estimate proportion hazard model for patients with hepatitis disease recorded in Gastrointestinal and Hepatic diseases Hospital in Iraq for (2002 -2005). Data consists of (age, gender, survival time terminal stat). A Kaplan-Meier method has been applied to estimate survival function and hazerd function.
Many carbonate reservoirs in the world show a tilted in originally oil-water contact (OOWC) which requires a special consideration in the selection of the capillary pressure curves and an understanding of reservoir fluids distribution while initializing the reservoir simulation models.
An analytical model for predicting the capillary pressure across the interface that separates two immiscible fluids was derived from reservoir pressure transient analysis. The model reflected the entire interaction between the reservoir-aquifer fluids and rock properties measured under downhole reservoir conditions.
This model retained the natural coupling of oil reservoirs with the aquifer zone and treated them as an explicit-region composite system
This article suggests and explores a three-species food chain model that includes fear effects, refuges depending on predators, and cannibalism at the second level. The Holling type II functional response determines food consumption between stages of the food chain. This study examined the long-term behavior and impacts of the suggested model's essential elements. The model's solution properties were studied. The existence and stability of every probable equilibrium point were examined. The persistence needs of the system have been determined. It was discovered what conditions could lead to local bifurcation at equilibrium points. Appropriate Lyapunov functions are utilized to investigate the overall dynamics of the system. To support the a
... Show MoreNovel artificial neural network (ANN) model was constructed for calibration of a multivariate model for simultaneously quantitative analysis of the quaternary mixture composed of carbamazepine, carvedilol, diazepam, and furosemide. An eighty-four mixing formula where prepared and analyzed spectrophotometrically. Each analyte was formulated in six samples at different concentrations thus twentyfour samples for the four analytes were tested. A neural network of 10 hidden neurons was capable to fit data 100%. The suggested model can be applied for the quantitative chemical analysis for the proposed quaternary mixture.
Physically based modeling approach has been widely developed in recent years for the simulation of dam failure process due to the lack of field data. This paper provides and describes a physically-based model depending on dimensional analysis and hydraulic simulation methods for estimating the maximum water level and the wave propagation time from breaching of field test dams. The field physical model has been constructed in Dabbah city to represent the collapse of the Roseires dam in Sudan. Five cases of a dam failure were studied to simulate water flood conditions by changing initial water height in the reservoir (0.8, 1.0, 1.2, 1.4 and 1.5 m respectively).The physical model working under five cases, case 5 had the greatest influence of t
... Show MoreThe paper has been summarized into the following:
Chapter one: the researcher deals with the problem of the paper, the most important points and the terminology. Chapter two: the researcher deals Surat Luqman from the Aya 12-19 , (the demonstration, the explanations, the values ). In chapter three the researcher deals with Surat AL-Hujurat from Aya 6-12, (the demonstration, the explanations, the values ). Chapter four include (the educational properties for individual and society, the educational applications, and the most important indicators in the texts). Chapter five include the results , the conclusions and the recommendations. One of the basic results that the Quran is a complete educational curriculum, and the texts of Surat Lu
Local and global bifurcations of food web model consists of immature and mature preys, first predator, and second predator with the current of toxicity and harvesting was studied. It is shown that a trans-critical bifurcation occurs at the equilibrium point