The unstable and uncertain nature of natural rubber prices makes them highly volatile and prone to outliers, which can have a significant impact on both modeling and forecasting. To tackle this issue, the author recommends a hybrid model that combines the autoregressive (AR) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models. The model utilizes the Huber weighting function to ensure the forecast value of rubber prices remains sustainable even in the presence of outliers. The study aims to develop a sustainable model and forecast daily prices for a 12-day period by analyzing 2683 daily price data from Standard Malaysian Rubber Grade 20 (SMR 20) in Malaysia. The analysis incorporates two dispersion measurements (IQR/3 and Sn) and three levels of IO contamination 0%, 10%, and 20%. The results indicate that using the Huber weighting function with the IQR/3 measurement to build the AR(1)-GARCH(2,1) model leads to better sustainability. These findings have the potential to enhance the GARCH model by modifying the weighting function of the M-estimator
As is known that the consumer price index (CPI) is one of the most important price indices because of its direct effect on the welfare of the individual and his living.
We have been address the problem of Strongly seasonal commodities in calculating (CPI) and identifying some of the solution.
We have used an actual data for a set of commodities (including strongly seasonal commodities) to calculate the index price by using (Annual Basket With Carry Forward Prices method) . Although this method can be successfully used in the context of seasonal&nbs
... Show MoreInformation security in data storage and transmission is increasingly important. On the other hand, images are used in many procedures. Therefore, preventing unauthorized access to image data is crucial by encrypting images to protect sensitive data or privacy. The methods and algorithms for masking or encoding images vary from simple spatial-domain methods to frequency-domain methods, which are the most complex and reliable. In this paper, a new cryptographic system based on the random key generator hybridization methodology by taking advantage of the properties of Discrete Cosine Transform (DCT) to generate an indefinite set of random keys and taking advantage of the low-frequency region coefficients after the DCT stage to pass them to
... Show MoreThis paper develops a fuzzy multi-objective model for solving aggregate production planning problems that contain multiple products and multiple periods in uncertain environments. We seek to minimize total production cost and total labor cost. We adopted a new method that utilizes a Zimmermans approach to determine the tolerance and aspiration levels. The actual performance of an industrial company was used to prove the feasibility of the proposed model. The proposed model shows that the method is useful, generalizable, and can be applied to APP problems with other parameters.
The popular Kurdish songs and games for children are among the simplest types that can be close to the child’s interest, because we estimate that this segment is limited by its meanings and goals charged with competition and the fall of its innate biological energies, in the early years of the stages of development and growth of human mental, psychological, and muscular skills, Passionate about knowing and discovering the general decree of life, and getting acquainted with the logical rulings that surround his new law, but instinctively it approaches everything that is simple in terms of understanding and palatability, as these games and songs are simple and easy in their melodic elements and elegance Conscious and kinetic are a
... Show MoreThe media guide is a small-sized printed medium, whose importance is highlighted through the specific information it carriesThe task of the guide lies in the clarity of these indications and making a positive impact on the recipient with understanding so it is a means for the purpose of reaching the effect and effectiveness of the message symbols from the movements of lines in which elements that are supposed to be equal in the performance of their functions and the purpose of their existence gather to achieve the mental response of perception, understanding and enjoyment. It must be in an objective unity based on the balance in this distribution. To form a formal organizational unit and an integrated system, the result of which is to gi
... Show MoreFutsal and blind football are group games of a competitive nature due to their excitement, excitement, fun, and aesthetic goals with charming artistic touches. This explains the public's passion for these two games, whether healthy people or blind people play them, to expand their vision and knowledge. About these two games, a historical approach is presented about their origins, development, and how they became globally recognized competitive sports with unified rules and world championships at various levels. Studying the origin and global spread of both futsal and blind football and identifying the most prominent developments in the rules and tools for futsal and blind football. The most important findings were that both futsal and footb
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People are supposed to use language harmoniously and compatibly. However, aggression may characterize much of human communication. Aggression has long been recognized as a negative anti-social issue that prevails in most personal interactions. If it abounds in familial communications, it is more dangerous due to its harmful effects on individuals, and consequently on societies. Aggression refers to all the instances in which we try to get our way without any consideration for others. Moriarty’s novel (2014), Big Little Lies, is argued to represent the patterns of aggressive communications. This study aims to find out the motivations behind aggressive language in familial communication in this
... Show MoreGlobal warming has a serious impact on the survival of organisms. Very few studies have considered the effect of global warming as a mathematical model. The effect of global warming on the carrying capacity of prey and predators has not been studied before. In this article, an ecological model describing the relationship between prey and predator and the effect of global warming on the carrying capacity of prey was studied. Moreover, the wind speed was considered an influencing factor in the predation process after developing the function that describes it. From a biological perspective, the nonnegativity and uniform bounded of all solutions for the model are proven. The existence of equilibria for the model and its local stability is inves
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