The unstable and uncertain nature of natural rubber prices makes them highly volatile and prone to outliers, which can have a significant impact on both modeling and forecasting. To tackle this issue, the author recommends a hybrid model that combines the autoregressive (AR) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models. The model utilizes the Huber weighting function to ensure the forecast value of rubber prices remains sustainable even in the presence of outliers. The study aims to develop a sustainable model and forecast daily prices for a 12-day period by analyzing 2683 daily price data from Standard Malaysian Rubber Grade 20 (SMR 20) in Malaysia. The analysis incorporates two dispersion measurements (IQR/3 and Sn) and three levels of IO contamination 0%, 10%, and 20%. The results indicate that using the Huber weighting function with the IQR/3 measurement to build the AR(1)-GARCH(2,1) model leads to better sustainability. These findings have the potential to enhance the GARCH model by modifying the weighting function of the M-estimator
This paper examines the change in planning pattern In Lebanon, which relies on vehicles as a semi-single mode of transport, and directing it towards re-shaping the city and introducing concepts of "smooth or flexible" mobility in its schemes; the concept of a "compact city" with an infrastructure based on a flexible mobility culture. Taking into consideration environmental, economical and health risks of the existing model, the paper focuses on the four foundations of the concepts of "city based on culture flexible mobility, "and provides a SWOT analysis to encourage for a shift in the planning methodology.
The effect of linear thermal stratification in stable stationary ambient fluid on free convective flow of a viscous incompressible fluid along a plane wall is numerically investigated in the present work. The governing equations of continuity, momentum and energy are solved numerically using finite difference method with Alternating Direct implicit Scheme. The velocity, temperature distributions
and the Nusselt number are discussed numerically for various values of physical parameters and presented through graphs. ANSYS program also used to solve the problem. The results show that the effect of stratification parameter is marginalized with the increase in Prandtl number, and the increase in Grashof number does not practically vary the
The Geographic Information System (GIS) is considered one of the most prominent programs used to collect, analyze, display, process, and produce geographic information maps for a specific purpose. It is also considered one of the modern database programs. Additionally, we can perform statistical analysis within GIS on predefined data to produce quantitative results. In this study, data was collected from more than 80 engineering projects established in Baghdad City from soil investigation reports for the projects. Geographic information systems were used to produce objective maps showing the variation in the bearing capacity of shallow foundations in the soil of Baghdad Governorate. I
William Shakespeare's play Coriolanus explores the journey of power and the transformation of a skilled warrior into a statesman. This paper employs Machiavelli’s framework of pragmatic statecraft to analyse Coriolanus’s tragic failure as a political leader despite his unparalleled prowess as a Roman general. It analyses Coriolanus's political career, revealing how his military skills, while effective in warfare, do not translate into political success. The paper shows that Coriolanus’s contempt for performative politics, refusal to adopt civic diplomacy, and failure to soften aristocratic pride with populist appeal turn plebeians against him and alienate patricians. His upholding of martial honour — fostered by his mother Volumnia
... Show MoreThe purpose of this study is aimed to lay down an arranged platform suited to Iraqi constructional associations which in charge to carry out multi constructional projects, as it fulfilled management requirements and supervising, so that low - cost projects will be controlled in due term and quality. Based on primary info and observed data collected, the study thesis has been formulated in this way: Iraqi constructional sector bodies which are in charge to implement simultaneously multi constructional projects in need to reformulate its organized structure so that it will be more fitted to management and control of these projects. This thesis includes a
theoretical part contained presenting the most important resources locally and int
Praise be to God, Lord of the Worlds, and prayers and peace be upon the most honorable of creation, Muhammad, whom God sent as a mercy to the worlds, and his pure God and his faithful companions. The Islamic heritage was replete with texts issued from among the pure infallibility, which constituted a prominent teacher that takes the student to stop there in search of its goals, purposes and beauty. The choice was made from those texts that were issued by the imams of Muslims in the Abbasid era, namely Imam Muhammad al-Jawad, his son Imam Ali al-Hadi and his grandson Imam Hassan Zaki al-Askari. (Peace be upon them), and scholars have called them (sons of satisfaction), and researchers have shed light on these texts from rhetorical, artistic
... Show MoreThe educational service industry is one of the most negatively affected industries by the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. Government agencies have taken many measures to slow its spread, and then restrict movement and gatherings and stop recreational activities. Furthermore, the repercussions of the curfew had a significant impact due to the interruption in actual attendance for students and employees, and the severity of the Covid-19 crisis and its (economic, social, security, humanitarian and behavioral) effects on all societies and work sectors is no secret to anyone. Iraq, like other countries, was also affected by the negative impact of Covid-19 pandemic in all fields of institutional work, especially public fields, and specifically t
... Show MoreThe modernity of election practices of the elections in Iraq, according to the democratic approach, has led to a struggle between political rival forces reflecting a deep pressure on the tools involved in the management, marketing or control of these elections across the general social level. Hence the problem of research resides in answering the following question: What is the nature and size of the pressures affecting the media performance of Al-Iraqia News channel before the legislative elections of 2018 in Iraq?
The objectives of the research were the following:
1. to identify the nature of the pressures that limit the Al-Iraqia News channel’s perfo
A geological model was built for the Sadi reservoir, located at the Halfaya oil field. It is regarded as one of the most significant oilfields in Iraq. The study includes several steps, the most essential of which was importing well logs from six oil wells to the Interactive Petrophysics software for conducting interpretation and analysis to calculate the petrophysical properties such as permeability, porosity, shale volume, water saturation, and NTG and then importing maps and the well tops to the Petrel software to build the 3D-Geological model and to calculate the value of the original oil in place. Three geological surfaces were produced for all Sadi units based on well-top data and the top Sadi structural map. The reservoir has
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