The unstable and uncertain nature of natural rubber prices makes them highly volatile and prone to outliers, which can have a significant impact on both modeling and forecasting. To tackle this issue, the author recommends a hybrid model that combines the autoregressive (AR) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models. The model utilizes the Huber weighting function to ensure the forecast value of rubber prices remains sustainable even in the presence of outliers. The study aims to develop a sustainable model and forecast daily prices for a 12-day period by analyzing 2683 daily price data from Standard Malaysian Rubber Grade 20 (SMR 20) in Malaysia. The analysis incorporates two dispersion measurements (IQR/3 and Sn) and three levels of IO contamination 0%, 10%, and 20%. The results indicate that using the Huber weighting function with the IQR/3 measurement to build the AR(1)-GARCH(2,1) model leads to better sustainability. These findings have the potential to enhance the GARCH model by modifying the weighting function of the M-estimator
The esterification reaction of ethyl alcohol and acetic acid catalyzed by the ion exchange resin, Amberlyst 15, was investigated. The experimental study was implemented in an isothermal batch reactor. Catalyst loading, initial molar ratio, mixing time and temperature as being the most effective parameters, were extensively studied and discussed. A maximum final conversion of 75% was obtained at 70°C, acid to ethyl alcohol mole ratio of 1/2 and 10 g catalyst loading. Kinetic of the reaction was correlated with Langmuir-Hanshelwood model (LHM). The total rate constant and the adsorption equilibrium of water as a function of the temperature was calculated. The activation energies were found to be as 113876.9 and -49474.95 KJ per Kmol of ac
... Show MoreIntended for getting good estimates with more accurate results, we must choose the appropriate method of estimation. Most of the equations in classical methods are linear equations and finding analytical solutions to such equations is very difficult. Some estimators are inefficient because of problems in solving these equations. In this paper, we will estimate the survival function of censored data by using one of the most important artificial intelligence algorithms that is called the genetic algorithm to get optimal estimates for parameters Weibull distribution with two parameters. This leads to optimal estimates of the survival function. The genetic algorithm is employed in the method of moment, the least squares method and the weighted
... Show MoreThe aim of this work is to evaluate the one- electron expectation value from the radial electronic density function D(r1) for different wave function for the 2S state of Be atom . The wave function used were published in 1960,1974and 1993, respectavily. Using Hartree-Fock wave function as a Slater determinant has used the partitioning technique for the analysis open shell system of Be (1s22s2) state, the analyze Be atom for six-pairs electronic wave function , tow of these are for intra-shells (K,L) and the rest for inter-shells(KL) . The results are obtained numerically by using computer programs (Mathcad).
This study was designed to investigate the effect of thyroid hormone disturbance on lipids profiles and liver functions. Eighteen mature male rats Rattus norvegicus were divided into three groups. The first and the second groups were injected subcutaneously with thyroxine (T4) and carbimazol (both at 600 µg/kg BW) respectively on alternate days, to produce recurrent periods of hyper and hypothyroidism .The control group which is the third group was injected with physiological saline. The process continued 4 weeks, after that, injection, blood specimens were collected to estimate serum levels of T3 and T4, Total cholesterol (TC), Triglycerides (TG), High density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), Low density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) an
... Show MoreHealth service institutions suffer from challenges resulting from the great changes that our world is witnessing today. This has affected the value that these institutions add to the patient.
This research aims to identify the effect of integrating each of the techniques of QFD and value engineering for the health services provided to the patient to improve the value for him and thus obtain his satisfaction, which is reflected in the reputation of the surveyed hospitals. To achieve this, the descriptive analytical method was used, and a questionnaire was designed to collect the necessary data, which represents a measure of this research. The questionnaire was distri
... Show MoreTransforming the common normal distribution through the generated Kummer Beta model to the Kummer Beta Generalized Normal Distribution (KBGND) had been achieved. Then, estimating the distribution parameters and hazard function using the MLE method, and improving these estimations by employing the genetic algorithm. Simulation is used by assuming a number of models and different sample sizes. The main finding was that the common maximum likelihood (MLE) method is the best in estimating the parameters of the Kummer Beta Generalized Normal Distribution (KBGND) compared to the common maximum likelihood according to Mean Squares Error (MSE) and Mean squares Error Integral (IMSE) criteria in estimating the hazard function. While the pr
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