The unstable and uncertain nature of natural rubber prices makes them highly volatile and prone to outliers, which can have a significant impact on both modeling and forecasting. To tackle this issue, the author recommends a hybrid model that combines the autoregressive (AR) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models. The model utilizes the Huber weighting function to ensure the forecast value of rubber prices remains sustainable even in the presence of outliers. The study aims to develop a sustainable model and forecast daily prices for a 12-day period by analyzing 2683 daily price data from Standard Malaysian Rubber Grade 20 (SMR 20) in Malaysia. The analysis incorporates two dispersion measurements (IQR/3 and Sn) and three levels of IO contamination 0%, 10%, and 20%. The results indicate that using the Huber weighting function with the IQR/3 measurement to build the AR(1)-GARCH(2,1) model leads to better sustainability. These findings have the potential to enhance the GARCH model by modifying the weighting function of the M-estimator
Sharif Mohieddin Haider worked on composing of musical compositions for the Oud different from the traditional forms known as (Peşrev, Sama'i, Longa… etc.), but they are not clear in building their musical form. This study tackles this issue by revealing the structure of the building of the musical form of these Musical compositions.
The importance of this research lies in that it provides an academic scientific study on the important subject of Musical composition forms and the way of constructing them. It helps players and students in the study of Arab music, if they want to write according to their musical form.
This research dealt with two topics in its theoretical framewo
... Show MoreThe study dealt with measuring the impact of the availability of each of the content elements of the interaction, electronic services, and information on the evaluation of the users of the government website for its effectiveness in terms of the site’s functions and for measuring the site’s ability to present the organization’s tasks to customer groups.
Authority is concerned with measuring the confidence of customers in the content of the site, and in the organization as a whole. Validity is related to measuring the effectiveness of employing the site’s content to achieve the goal of its creation and in communicating with customers. Availability It is for measuring the ease of use of the site. The relevance, which means
... Show MorePsychological aspects are a major influence and motivation factor in many cinematic and television works such as television series. There are many films that dealt with psychological issues through the personality affected by psychological projections and complexes that lead towards abnormal behavior and actions in most cases, so the researchers chose the title and the research problem was raised through the following question: What is the mechanism that fulfills a psychological role in the narrative film? The objectives of the research were to reveal the mechanism used to instill psychological contents in the feature film? As for the limits of the research, it was an intentional sample, and the researchers adopted the descriptive anal
... Show MoreA problem of solid waste became in the present day common global problem among all countries, whether developing or developed countries, and can say that no country in the world today is immuning from this dilemma which must find appropriate solutions. The problem has reached a stage that can not ignore or delay, but has became a daily problem occupies the minds of ecologists, economists and politicians took occupies center front in the lists of priorities for the countries in terms of finding solutions to the rapid scientific and radical them. and that transport costs constitute an important component of total costs borne by the municipal districts in the process of disposal of solid waste, so any improvement in the
... Show Moremodel is derived, and the methodology is given in detail. The model is constructed depending on some measurement criteria, Akaike and Bayesian information criterion. For the new time series model, a new algorithm has been generated. The forecasting process, one and two steps ahead, is discussed in detail. Some exploratory data analysis is given in the beginning. The best model is selected based on some criteria; it is compared with some naïve models. The modified model is applied to a monthly chemical sales dataset (January 1992 to Dec 2019), where the dataset in this work has been downloaded from the United States of America census (www.census.gov). Ultimately, the forecasted sales
Abstract:
One of the important things provided by fuzzy model is to identify the membership functions. In the fuzzy reliability applications with failure functions of the kind who cares that deals with positive variables .There are many types of membership functions studied by many researchers, including triangular membership function, trapezoidal membership function and bell-shaped membership function. In I research we used beta function. Based on this paper study classical method to obtain estimation fuzzy reliability function for both series and parallel systems.
In this paper, a mathematical model was built for the supply chain to reduce production, inventory, and transportation in Baghdad Company for Soft Drink. The linear programming method was used to solve this mathematical model. We reduced the cost of production by reduced the daily work hours, the company do not need the overtime hours to work at the same levels of production, and the costs of storage in the company's warehouses and agents' stores have been reduced by making use of the stock correctly, which guarantees reducing costs and preserving products from damage. The units transferred from the company were equal to the units demanded by the agents. The company's mathematical model also achieved profits by (84,663,769) by re
... Show MoreIn this paper, we will provide a proposed method to estimate missing values for the Explanatory variables for Non-Parametric Multiple Regression Model and compare it with the Imputation Arithmetic mean Method, The basis of the idea of this method was based on how to employ the causal relationship between the variables in finding an efficient estimate of the missing value, we rely on the use of the Kernel estimate by Nadaraya – Watson Estimator , and on Least Squared Cross Validation (LSCV) to estimate the Bandwidth, and we use the simulation study to compare between the two methods.
Churning of employees from organizations is a serious problem. Turnover or churn of employees within an organization needs to be solved since it has negative impact on the organization. Manual detection of employee churn is quite difficult, so machine learning (ML) algorithms have been frequently used for employee churn detection as well as employee categorization according to turnover. Using Machine learning, only one study looks into the categorization of employees up to date. A novel multi-criterion decision-making approach (MCDM) coupled with DE-PARETO principle has been proposed to categorize employees. This is referred to as SNEC scheme. An AHP-TOPSIS DE-PARETO PRINCIPLE model (AHPTOPDE) has been designed that uses 2-stage MCDM s
... Show MoreThis paper presents a hybrid software copy protection scheme, the scheme is applied to
prevent illegal copying of software by produce a license key which is unique and easy to
generate. This work employs the uniqueness of identification of hard disk in personal
computer which can get by software to create a license key after treated with SHA-1 one way
hash function. Two mean measures are used to evaluate the proposed method, complexity
and processing time, SHA-1 can insure the high complexity to deny the hackers for produce
unauthorized copies, many experiments have been executed using different sizes of software
to calculate the consuming time. The measures show high complexity and short execution
time for propos