The unstable and uncertain nature of natural rubber prices makes them highly volatile and prone to outliers, which can have a significant impact on both modeling and forecasting. To tackle this issue, the author recommends a hybrid model that combines the autoregressive (AR) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models. The model utilizes the Huber weighting function to ensure the forecast value of rubber prices remains sustainable even in the presence of outliers. The study aims to develop a sustainable model and forecast daily prices for a 12-day period by analyzing 2683 daily price data from Standard Malaysian Rubber Grade 20 (SMR 20) in Malaysia. The analysis incorporates two dispersion measurements (IQR/3 and Sn) and three levels of IO contamination 0%, 10%, and 20%. The results indicate that using the Huber weighting function with the IQR/3 measurement to build the AR(1)-GARCH(2,1) model leads to better sustainability. These findings have the potential to enhance the GARCH model by modifying the weighting function of the M-estimator
Praise be to God, prayer, and peace be upon the Messenger of Allah and his God and his companions. The field of the judiciary to prove or invalidate some cases in the field of proof of descent and attachment to the plaintiff or exile, and other legal and judicial issues, especially in this era where the spread of previously unknown evidence, such as DNA, which was discovered in 1953, and the genetic fingerprint discovered 1984, blood analysis and a Saliva, sweat, poetry, etc. in the field of forensic evidence, in forensic medicine or medical expertise, it can be used to identify the killer, or verify his identity, using all the evidence in the scene, such as a point of blood or sweat, and the like So, as well as to prove the lineage is u
... Show MoreIt is well known that the spread of cancer or tumor growth increases in polluted environments. In this paper, the dynamic behavior of the cancer model in the polluted environment is studied taking into consideration the delay in clearance of the environment from their contamination. The set of differential equations that simulates this epidemic model is formulated. The existence, uniqueness, and the bound of the solution are discussed. The local and global stability conditions of disease-free and endemic equilibrium points are investigated. The occurrence of the Hopf bifurcation around the endemic equilibrium point is proved. The stability and direction of the periodic dynamics are studied. Finally, the paper is ended with a numerical simul
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The article critically analyzes traditional translation models. The most influential models of translation in the second half of the 20th century have been mentioned, among which the theory of formal and dynamic equivalence, the theory of regular correspondences, informative, situational-denotative, functional-pragmatic theory of communication levels have been considered. The selected models have been analyzed from the point of view of the universality of their use for different types and types of translation, as well as the ability to comprehend the deep links established between the original and the translation.
Аннотация
Systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) is a multisystem autoimmune disease that affects 43.7 per 100,000 people worldwide, most commonly presenting in childbearing years. SLE pregnancies are complicated by cardiovascular events in up to 7.8% of cases, which translates to a 3.2- to 31.5-fold increase in severe maternal morbidity and a seven-fold increase in maternal mortality, compared to the general obstetric population. The highest risk is reported in cases with concurrent lupus nephritis or antiphospholipid syndrome [1]. These complications are not surprisingly seen; they are the end result of endothelial dysfunction, immune aberration, and placental dysfunction that precedes clinical decompensation by weeks [2,3].The current approach in mana
... Show MoreElectronic Health Record (EHR) systems are used as an efficient and effective method of exchanging patients’ health information with doctors and other key stakeholders in the health sector to obtain improved patient treatment decisions and diagnoses. As a result, questions regarding the security of sensitive user data are highlighted. To encourage people to move their sensitive health records to cloud networks, a secure authentication and access control mechanism that protects users’ data should be established. Furthermore, authentication and access control schemes are essential in the protection of health data, as numerous responsibilities exist to ensure security and privacy in a network. So, the main goal of our s
... Show MoreMeasurement of construction performance is essential to a clear image of the present situation. This monitoring by the management team is necessary to identify locations where performance is exceptionally excellent or poor and to identify the primary reasons so that the lessons gained may be exported to the firm and its progress strengthened. This research attempts to construct an integrated mathematical model utilizing one of the recent methodologies for dealing with the fuzzy representation of experts’ knowledge and judgment considering hesitancy called spherical fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (SFAHP) method to assess the contractor’s performance per the project performance pa
Negotiations are distinguished in that they are an easy and simple means between the conflicting parties, and it is an effective means at the same time as the conflicting parties seek understanding on the most effective way to solve their dispute, but negotiations are not always appropriate to resolve international disputes, especially when there is a disparity in power between the negotiating countries, or when it is missing Goodwill, or even when one of the parties is absent or less flexible, and the internal circumstances of one of the conflicting countries may play a negative or positive role in the success of the negotiations, away from the influence of the role of external variables in that, a
... Show MoreLiquefied petroleum gases (LPG) consist of hydrocarbons obtained by refining crude oil, either from propane or butane or a mixture of the two. There are often other components such as propylene, butylene or other hydrocarbons, but they are not the main component. The study aims to review previous studies dealing with designing an LPG system to deliver gas to residential campuses and buildings. LPG is extracted from natural gas NG by several processes, passing through fractionation towers and then pressuring into CNG storage tanks. Gas contains several problems, including gas leakage through the pipes and leads to fires or explosions in LPG storage and distribution tanks, so safety conditions were taken in the design and implementation. T
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Building Information Modeling (BIM) is becoming a great known established collaboration process in Architecture, Engineering, and Construction (AEC) industry. In various cases in many countries, potential benefits and competitive advantages have been reported. However, despite the potentials and benefits of BIM technologies, it is not applied in the construction sector in Iraq just like many other countries of the world. The purpose of this research is to understand the uses and benefits of BIM for construction projects in Iraq. This purpose has been done by establishing a fr |