Phlebotomus papatasi sand fly is the main vector of Zoonotic Cutaneous Leishmaniasis (ZCL) in Iraq. The aim of this study was to assess and predict the effects of climate change on the distribution of the cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) cases and the main vector presently and in the future. Data of the CL cases were collected for the period (2000-2018) in addition to sand fly (SF) abundance. Geographic information system, R studio and MaxEnt (Maximum entropy niche model) software were used for analysis and predict effect of (elevation, population, Bio1-19, and Bio28-35) on CL cases distribution and SF occurrence. HadGEM2-ES model with two climate change scenarios, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 were used for future projections 2050. The results showed th

This paper deals with, Bayesian estimation of the parameters of Gamma distribution under Generalized Weighted loss function, based on Gamma and Exponential priors for the shape and scale parameters, respectively. Moment, Maximum likelihood estimators and Lindley’s approximation have been used effectively in Bayesian estimation. Based on Monte Carlo simulation method, those estimators are compared in terms of the mean squared errors (MSE’s).

This study included the Zakhikhah area in the Al- Anbar desert, which it bounded on the north, east, and west by the Euphrates River and on the south by the Ramadi-Qaim road. Several exploratory field trips were taken to the study area. During this time, a semi-detailed area survey was carried out based on satellite imagery captured by American Land sat-7, topographic maps, and natural vegetation variance. All necessary field tools, including a digital camera and GPS device, were brought to determine the soil type and collect plant samples. All of these visits are planned to cover the entire state of Zakhikhah. All vegetation cover observations, identifying sampling sites and attempting to inventory and collect medicinal plants in t

This paper interest to estimation the unknown parameters for generalized Rayleigh distribution model based on censored samples of singly type one . In this paper the probability density function for generalized Rayleigh is defined with its properties . The maximum likelihood estimator method is used to derive the point estimation for all unknown parameters based on iterative method , as Newton – Raphson method , then derive confidence interval estimation which based on Fisher information matrix . Finally , testing whether the current model ( GRD ) fits to a set of real data , then compute the survival function and hazard function for this real data.

Methods of estimating statistical distribution have attracted many researchers when it comes to fitting a specific distribution to data. However, when the data belong to more than one component, a popular distribution cannot be fitted to such data. To tackle this issue, mixture models are fitted by choosing the correct number of components that represent the data. This can be obvious in lifetime processes that are involved in a wide range of engineering applications as well as biological systems. In this paper, we introduce an application of estimating a finite mixture of Inverse Rayleigh distribution by the use of the Bayesian framework when considering the model as Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). We employed the Gibbs sampler and

This work predicts the effect of thermal load distribution in polymer melt inside a mold and a die during injection and extrusion processes respectively on the structure properties of final product. Transient thermal and structure models of solidification process for polycarbonate polymer melt in a steel mold and die are studied in this research. Thermal solution obtained according to solidify the melt from 300 to 30Cand Biot number of 16 and 112 respectively for the mold and from 300 to 30 Cand Biot number of 16 for die. Thermal conductivity, and shear and Young Modulus of polycarbonate are temperature depending. Bonded contact between the polycarbonate and the steel surfaces is suggested to transfer the thermal load. The temperat

Shatt al-Arab is the only navigational artery in Iraq, extending from the city of Qurna to its mouth in the Arabian Gulf at the city of Al-Fao within the governorate of Basrah for a length of approximately 204 km. Its width ranges from 400 m to 2000 m, and its depth ranges from 8 m to 20 m. The southern part of it, 93 km long from Umm al-Rassas Island to Ras al-Bisha, represents the international border between Iraq and Iran, where the Thalweg line represents the border between the two countries, which is the deepest point in the riverbed (according to the 1975 Algiers Agreement). The western bank (the Iraqi side) within the common border of Shatt al-Arab is subject to continuous erosion, which leads to the shifting of t