Modern statistical techniques offer a range of methodologies for modelling time series data, with conditional and unconditional approaches providing complementary insights that enhance overall model accuracy. This article introduced a modified ARIMA model employing conditional and unconditional parameter estimates. The methodology for the new model based on novel methods is provided. The prediction process, one and two steps ahead, is covered in detail, and a novel algorithm is presented. The best model is picked based on various measurement criteria, such as coefficient of determination (R2), root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean absolute scaled error (MASE). The suggested model is applied to a monthly petrol sales dataset (Jan

Abstract  

  In this work, two algorithms of Metaheuristic algorithms were hybridized. The first is Invasive Weed Optimization algorithm (IWO) it is a numerical stochastic optimization algorithm and the second is Whale Optimization Algorithm (WOA) it is an algorithm based on the intelligence of swarms and community intelligence. Invasive Weed Optimization Algorithm (IWO) is an algorithm inspired by nature and specifically from the colonizing weeds behavior of weeds, first proposed in 2006 by Mehrabian and Lucas. Due to their strength and adaptability, weeds pose a serious threat to cultivated plants, making them a threat to the cultivation process. The behavior of these weeds has been simulated and used in Invas

Microbial Desalination Cell (MDC) is capable of desalinating seawater, producing electrical power and treating wastewater. Previously, chemical cathodes were used, which were application restrictions due to operational expenses are quite high, low levels of long-term viability and high toxicity. A pure oxygen cathode was using, external resistance 50 and 150 k Ω were studied with two concentrations of NaCl in the desalination chamber 15-25 g/L which represents the concentration of brackish water and sea water. The highest energy productivity was obtained, which amounted to 44 and 46 mW/m³, and the maximum limit for desalination of saline water was (31% and 26%) for each of 25 g / L and 15 g / L, respectively, when using an ex

The problem of the study and its significance:

           Due to the increasing pressures of life continually, and constant quest behind materialism necessary and frustrations that confront us daily in general, the greater the emergence of a number of cases of disease organic roots psychological causing them because of severity of a lack of response to conventional treatments (drugs), and this is creating in patients a number of emotional disorders resulting from concern the risk of disease

     That is interested psychologists and doctors searchin

This study aims to measure and analyze the direct and indirect effects of the financial variables, namely (public spending, public revenues, internal debt, and external debt), on the non-oil productive sectors with and without bank credit as an intermediate variable, using quarterly data for the period (2004Q1–2021Q4), converted using Eviews 12. To measure the objective of the study, the path analysis method was used using IBM SPSS-AMOS. The study concluded that the direct and indirect effects of financial variables have a weak role in directing bank credit towards the productive sectors in Iraq, which amounted to (0.18), as a result of market risks or unstable expectations in the economy. In addition to the weak credit ratings of borr

The exchange rate is of great importance at the global and local levels alike, as this importance increases with the increasing rates of development of economic relations between countries of the world due to openness and integration into the global economy, expressed by the expansion of the volume of trade and financial relations between countries. The Central Bank of Iraq has set the need to stabilize this price as a goal to reduce inflation rates and reduce them to the internationally accepted rates by using the foreign currency sale window to achieve a balance between the forces of supply and demand for foreign currency and to preserve the value of the Iraqi dinar. The research concluded that the central bank was It has a maj

Abstract 

     This research aims to analyze the reality of the production process in an assembly line Cars (RUNNA) in the public company for the automotive industry / Alexandria through the use of some Lean production tools, and data were collected through permanence in the company to identify the problems of the line in order to find appropriate to adopt some Lean production tools solutions, and results showed the presence of Lead time in some stations, which is reflected on the customer's waiting time to get the car, as well as some of the problems existing in the car produced such as high temperature of the car, as the company does not take into account customer preferences,

Abstract 

This paper presents an intelligent model reference adaptive control (MRAC) utilizing a self-recurrent wavelet neural network (SRWNN) to control nonlinear systems. The proposed SRWNN is an improved version of a previously reported wavelet neural network (WNN). In particular, this improvement was achieved by adopting two modifications to the original WNN structure. These modifications include, firstly, the utilization of a specific initialization phase to improve the convergence to the optimal weight values, and secondly, the inclusion of self-feedback weights to the wavelons of the wavelet layer. Furthermore, an on-line training procedure was proposed to enhance the control per

Social determinants of health (SDH) profoundly influence diabetes outcomes; nevertheless, their impact on the Iraqi diabetic population remains under researched. The objectives of this study were To investigate the relationship between particular social determinants of health (SDH) variables namely food and housing insecurity, social support, income, and education and clinical outcomes, including HbA1c levels, medication adherence, and patient satisfaction among Iraqi diabetic patients. A cross-sectional study involving 212 diabetic patients in Iraq was conducted. Participants attending a healthcare facility in Iraq filled out validated questionnaires regarding social determinants of health, medication adherence, and satisfaction. HbA1c rea

This work is concerned with the vibration attenuation of a smart beam interacting with fluid using proportional-derivative PD control and adaptive approximation compensator AAC. The role of the AAC is to improve the PD performance by compensating for unmodelled dynamics using the concept of function approximation technique FAT. The key idea is to represent the unknown parameters using the weighting coefficient and basis function matrices/vectors. The weighting coefficient vector is updated using Lyapunov theory. This controller is applied to a flexible beam provided with surface bonded piezo-patches while the vibrating beam system is submerged in a fluid. Two main effects are considered: 1) axial stretching of the vibrating beam that leads