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bsj-4606
A Modified Approach by Using Prediction to Build a Best Threshold in ARX Model with Practical Application
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The proposal of nonlinear models is one of the most important methods in time series analysis, which has a wide potential for predicting various phenomena, including physical, engineering and economic, by studying the characteristics of random disturbances in order to arrive at accurate predictions.

In this, the autoregressive model with exogenous variable was built using a threshold as the first method, using two proposed approaches that were used to determine the best cutting point of [the predictability forward (forecasting) and the predictability in the time series (prediction), through the threshold point indicator]. B-J seasonal models are used as a second method based on the principle of the two proposed approaches in determining the best seasonal model. Then they are compared with the obtained models from two methods that mentioned above of the two approaches within a group of the criteria as AIC, MDL, Loss Function, BIC, FPE, MSE, in addition the proposed weighted comparison criteria to determine the best model for representing the wind speed data as input variable, soil and dust as an output variable, in Baghdad Station from January 1956 to December 2012.

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Publication Date
Mon Aug 01 2022
Journal Name
International Journal Of Modern Physics E
The ground state properties of some exotic nuclei studied by the two-body model
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The ground state properties including the density distributions of the neutrons, protons and matter as well as the corresponding root mean square (rms) radii of proton-rich halo candidates 8B, 12N, 23Al and 27P have been studied by the single particle Bear– Hodgson (BH) wave functions with the two-body model of (core+p). It is found that the rms radii of these proton-rich nuclei are reproduced well by this model and the radial wave functions describe the long tail of the proton and matter density distributions. These results indicate that this model achieves a suitable description of the possible halo structure. The plane wave Born approximation (PWBA) has been used to compute the elastic charge form factors.

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Publication Date
Sun Oct 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
The social responsibility to the visual media and its role in spreading the culture of the environment protection / field research to a sample of students of the University of Baghdad
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        This paper deals with social responsibility visible to the media and the role they play in spreading the culture of environmental protection, and make research on a sample of the University of Baghdad consisting students from 150 students, male and female were distributed questionnaire form on the sample to obtain the required information has been questionnaire included axes distributed questions achieve the objectives of the search, and after the form data were analyzed using statistical program spss results show that the visual media and its role in spreading the culture of environmental protection form averages arithmetic high, indicating a rise in the influence of th

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Publication Date
Fri Feb 13 2026
Journal Name
Al–bahith Al–a'alami
Effectiveness of Dialogic Communication in Online Public Relations with an Audience : (Analytical Study of the Websites of Universities in UAE)
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The Study addressed the effectiveness of dialogic communication in online public relations with an audience of higher education institutions in the United Arab Emirates. The study aimed to know about the interest extent of higher education institutions through their websites with the elements of dialogic communication in online public relations to communicate with their audience. The researcher used survey methodology and content Analysis tool as an essential tool for collecting information. Some of the important results of the study are: The websites of higher education institutions in terms of indicators of ease of use; the main links on the websites are clearly available on the opening page, there is a map on the websites, reduce depe

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 15 2025
Journal Name
الذكوات البيض
Drugs in Iraq 1932-1968 (A Historical Study)
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The spread of drugs in Iraq during the period 1932-1968 was one of the most dangerous. phenomena affecting humans, as it leads to addiction, to the point where people cannot live without it, it also leads to the destruction of the user's nerves and body, and the inability to maintain balance, or even perform daily tasks. There are different types of drugs, and the side effects vary from one type to another However in all cases, drugs remain the scourge of the world, They are a toxic substance that attacks the nerves and tries to destroy them' The importance of the subject lies in the fact that it is anew and unstudied topic, and it studies a phenomenon that affects humanity in general and Iraq in Particular through it light can be shed on t

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Publication Date
Fri Mar 06 2020
Journal Name
Iop Conference Series: Materials Science And Engineering
Building HEC-RAS model to detect the areas of Water Cycle Interruption in river stream and their sections
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The purpose of this paper is to build a simulation model by using HEC-RAS software to simulate the reality of water movement in the main river of Basra City (South of Iraq) which is known as Siraji-Khoura River. The main objective of the simulation is to detect areas where the water cycle is interrupted in some stations of the river stream, as this river has become an outlet for the disposal of sewage, leading to pollution and causing weakness in some sections of the river & obstructing the water cycle that takes place between this river and Shatt al – Arab river. A field survey data of the river and its banks were adopted to derive the grades, longitudinal and cross sections of the river, these data included three-dimensional coordinates

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Publication Date
Mon Jul 01 2019
Journal Name
Iop Conference Series: Materials Science And Engineering
Study of different geostatistical methods to model formation porosity (Cast study of Zubair formation in Luhais oil field)
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Abstract<p>This study is concerned with making comparison in using different geostatistical methods for porosity distribution of upper shale member - Zubair formation in Luhais oil field which was chosen to study.</p><p>Kriging, Gaussian random function simulation and sequential Gaussian simulation geostatistical methods were adopted in this study. After preparing all needed data which are contour map, well heads of 12 wells, well tops and porosity from CPI log. Petrel software 2009 was used for porosity distribution of mentioned formation in methods that are showed above. Comparisons were made among these three methods in order to choose the best one, the comparing cri</p> ... Show More
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Publication Date
Wed Jan 08 2025
Journal Name
Journal Of Al-rafidain University College For Sciences ( Print Issn: 1681-6870 ,online Issn: 2790-2293 )
Utilizing the Error Correction Model to Investigate the Impact of Fluctuations in Bank Deposits on the Money Supply
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This paper assesses the impact of changes and fluctuations in bank deposits on the money supply in Iraq. Employing  the research constructs an Error Correction Model (ECM) using  monthly time series data from 2010 to 2015. The analysis begins with  the Phillips-Perron unit root test to ascertain the stationarity of the  time series and the Engle and Granger cointegration test to examine  the existence of a long-term relationship. Nonparametric regression functions are estimated using two methods: Smoothing Spline and M-smoothing. The results indicate that the  M-smoothing approach is the most effective, achieving the shortest adjustment period and the highest adjustment ratio for short-term disturbances, thereby facilitating a return

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 01 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The impact of strategic leadership skills on effective environmental management according to the (VUCA Prime) model
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Purpose: clarify the integrative relationship of strategic leadership skills and effective management and the role of those skills combined or individually in achieving effective management.

Research design: The researchers used the quantitative method by surveying a class sample from the heads of the executive departments in a group of Iraqi private banks, consisting of (106) individuals according to the (VUCA Prime) methodology for effective management and the ten skills model for Johansen. The questionnaire was analyzed using a model of the structural equation.

Findings: The most prominent results of the research were the presence of a weak ro

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 04 2012
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Land Magnetic survey along a profile from Akaz to Rutba town and its applications
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A land magnetic survey was carried out along regional profile, which is located at the north part of the Iraqi western desert. It starts from al –Qaam City (at north) toward Rutba City (at south) with a total length of 238km. The survey was carried out along the paved road between the two cities, About 113 measuring points were done with inter-station distance of 2 km (for 198 km) and 2 to 5km (for 40km). Two proton magnetometers were used in this survey. One of them is used for base station monitoring, which was fixed as of Salah Aldin field (Akkas). Its readings were used for diurnal corrections. All magnetic measurements were corrected for normal and topographic corrections. The readings were reduced to a certain base level. The resu

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Publication Date
Fri Mar 01 2024
Journal Name
Annales Pharmaceutiques Françaises
Adopting video assignments as a tool to improve first-year pharmacy students class engagement
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