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bsj-4606
A Modified Approach by Using Prediction to Build a Best Threshold in ARX Model with Practical Application
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The proposal of nonlinear models is one of the most important methods in time series analysis, which has a wide potential for predicting various phenomena, including physical, engineering and economic, by studying the characteristics of random disturbances in order to arrive at accurate predictions.

In this, the autoregressive model with exogenous variable was built using a threshold as the first method, using two proposed approaches that were used to determine the best cutting point of [the predictability forward (forecasting) and the predictability in the time series (prediction), through the threshold point indicator]. B-J seasonal models are used as a second method based on the principle of the two proposed approaches in determining the best seasonal model. Then they are compared with the obtained models from two methods that mentioned above of the two approaches within a group of the criteria as AIC, MDL, Loss Function, BIC, FPE, MSE, in addition the proposed weighted comparison criteria to determine the best model for representing the wind speed data as input variable, soil and dust as an output variable, in Baghdad Station from January 1956 to December 2012.

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Publication Date
Tue Jan 01 2008
Journal Name
Alustath Journal For Human And Social Sciences
أثر المنشطات العقلية في أستراتيجيات التعلم و الدراسة و أنماط المعرفة الفيزيائية لدى طالبات الصف الرابع العام
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Publication Date
Sat Oct 28 2023
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Isolation and Identification of Polyethylene Terephthalate Degrading Bacteria from Shatt Al-Arab and Sewage Water of Basrah City
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Biodegradation is utilizing microorganisms to degrade materials into products that are safe for the
environment, such as carbon dioxide, water, and biomass. The current study aims to isolate and characterize
bacteria with polyethylene terephthalate (PET) degradation ability isolated from Shatt al-Arab water and
sewage from Basra, the bacteria were identified as Klebsiella pneumonia. According to the findings, the
isolates showed a highly significant difference in degradation of PET (24% during 7 days) and the percent of
degradation increased to 46% at 4 weeks compared to the control. The study also involved determining the
optimum temperature of K. pneumonia growth, which was 37°C, while the preferred

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Publication Date
Mon Dec 05 2022
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Effect of Secondary Metabolite Crude of Metarhizum anisopliea Fungus on the Second Larval Stage of the Housefly Musca domestica
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         The house flies Musca domestica )Diptera:musidae) are the primary carrier of many pathogens such as cholera, typhoid, anthrax, and others. The use of chemical pesticides as a basic method of control leads to many problems at the environmental and health level. The use of safe alternatives to chemical pesticides has become an urgent necessity. The research aims to find biological alternatives that are environment-friendly and non-pathogenic to humans in controlling house flies through the possibility of extracting and diagnosing some secondary metabolites produced by the fungus Metarhizium anisopliae and testing their effects on the second larval stage of house flies using different treatment methods that include

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Publication Date
Thu Oct 01 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Physical Education (20736452)
تأثير التدريبات التكتيكية على اللعب السريع حسب التحمل اللاهوائي في تطور السرعة لدى لاعبي كرة القدم الشباب.
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Publication Date
Wed Nov 14 2018
Journal Name
Arab Science Heritage Journal
الثروة الثروة المائية في المغرب العربي من القرن 4 – 7 هـ/ 10 م – 13 م دراسة تاريخية
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Water resources would be differentiate in Morocco specially in Morocco  which appear as form of eyes ,rivers as dissolved water of mountain.

The human takes care of water either as rains to store and use in necessity trying to bring it to Maracas  by  helping from state .

The religious  tried to dig wells to emphasize that water is rumored and do not monopolized.

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Publication Date
Mon Jul 01 2019
Journal Name
المجلة المصرية لبحوث الأعلام
دوافع تعرض طلبة أقسام اللُّغة الإنکليزية في جامعة بغداد للقنوات الفضائية الناطقة باللُّغة الإنکليزية والإشباعات المتحققة عنه:
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تلخصت مشکلة هذا البحث في التعرف على الدوافع التي تقف وراء تعرض الطلبة الدارسين في أقسام اللُّغة الإنکليزية للقنوات الفضائية الناطقة باللُّغة الإنکليزية والإشباعات المتحققة عن هذا التعرض في هذا المجتمع الخاص الذي يشکل بيئة اجتماعية علمية محددة، عن طريق تطبيق نظرية الإستخدامات والإشباعات في إطار المجتمعات الخاصة، وسعى هذا البحث إلى تحقيق ثلاثة أهداف هي، قياس استخدامات لطلبة الدارسين في أقسام اللُّغة الإنک

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Publication Date
Sat Oct 01 2022
Journal Name
مجلة الدراسات الاقتصادية والادارية
تزامن تكاليف الجودة وتصميم العملية لتحقيق الميزة التنافسية: دراسة تطبيقية في الشركة العامة للمنتوجات الغذائية- مصنع المامون
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يهدف البحث الى تطبيق تزامن تصميم عملية انتاج معجون الاسنان في مصنع المامون التابع للشركة العامة للمنتوجات الغذائية مع نظام تكاليف الجودة المطبق في الشركة لتحقيق الميزة التنافسية. وتمثلت مشكلة البحث في أن الشركة عينة البحث لا تستخدم نظام تكاليف الجودة بالتزامن مع تصميم عملية إنتاج هذا المنتج لاغراض تحقيق الميزة التنافسية حيث تواجه منتجات الشركة منافسة عالية في الاسواق المحلية. إن الشركة تطبق نظام تكاليف الج

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Publication Date
Sun Feb 03 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
Different garlic forms: (lobster, mashed, crushed) and their effect on quality qualities And the molecular life of the fermented cucumber and flavor
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This study aimed to isolate and identifye the growth of microorganisms and
their effect on pickled cucumber and cabbage, the study also investigated the effect of
garlic (in the form of segments, chopped or crushed) on the mentioned pickled –food
features . Furthermore, a sense based comparison is made between vinegar-preserved
samples and vinegar-garlic preserved ones.
The following results have been obtained:
1- The isolation of staph. aureus alone from the samples and the study of its physical
and biochemical features.
2- The fresh garlic (segments, chopped and crushed) with concentration of 5%, 7.5%,
and 10% showed a damaging percentage of 100% to bacterial growth of staph. Aureus
after 24 hours of inc

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Publication Date
Mon Sep 25 2023
Journal Name
Arab Science Heritage Journal
المدراس الثانوية في الاعظمية ( ثانوية كلية بغداد- ثانوية الأعظمية للبنين – ثانوية الأعظمية للبنات - ثانوية الحريري للبنات) أنموذجاً
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Education received the attention of the monarchy in Iraq, especially after the developments that the country witnessed after Iraq gained independence and joined the League of Nations in 1932 AD in all political, economic and cultural aspects.  In this regard, due to its distinguished geographical location, where the atmosphere, the natural environment and the religious and political standing were available, which made it a center of attraction for most Iraqi families and political figures. 

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Publication Date
Fri Feb 08 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
دراسة العلاقة بین وجبة الأفطار والمستوى الاقتصادي وعدد إفراد الأسرة وتأثیرھا في القابلیات الذھنیة لطلبة المرحلة الابتدائیة
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Five mixed primary schools from the district of Tikrit/ Salah al- din province
with a total of 100 male and female pupils and two ages(8-9 and 10-11 years),
were selected randomly to study the relationship between the breakfast meal and
the academic level, the socioeconomic situation, and the number of family
members. The study showed a positive linear correlation between the morning
meal, and academic level of students for both two covered ages, also showed a
clear impact between the development of family's socioeconomic situation and
their nutrition level. There were an increase in the percentage of pupils aged 8-9
years with a poor nutrition when they were belonged to a poor or medium
socioeconomic families,

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