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bsj-4606
A Modified Approach by Using Prediction to Build a Best Threshold in ARX Model with Practical Application
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The proposal of nonlinear models is one of the most important methods in time series analysis, which has a wide potential for predicting various phenomena, including physical, engineering and economic, by studying the characteristics of random disturbances in order to arrive at accurate predictions.

In this, the autoregressive model with exogenous variable was built using a threshold as the first method, using two proposed approaches that were used to determine the best cutting point of [the predictability forward (forecasting) and the predictability in the time series (prediction), through the threshold point indicator]. B-J seasonal models are used as a second method based on the principle of the two proposed approaches in determining the best seasonal model. Then they are compared with the obtained models from two methods that mentioned above of the two approaches within a group of the criteria as AIC, MDL, Loss Function, BIC, FPE, MSE, in addition the proposed weighted comparison criteria to determine the best model for representing the wind speed data as input variable, soil and dust as an output variable, in Baghdad Station from January 1956 to December 2012.

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 14 2022
Journal Name
Civil Engineering Journal
Rutting Prediction of Hot Mix Asphalt Mixtures Modified by Nano silica and Subjected to Aging Process
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High-volume traffic with ultra-heavy axle loads combined with extremely hot weather conditions increases the propagation of rutting in flexible pavement road networks. Several studies suggested using nanomaterials in asphalt modification to delay the deterioration of asphalt pavement. The current work aims to improve the resistance of hot mix asphalt (HMA) to rutting by incorporating Nano Silica (NS) in specific concentrations. NS was blended into asphalt mixtures in concentrations of 2, 4, and 6% by weight of the binder. The behavior of asphalt mixtures subjected to aging was investigated at different stages (short-term and long-term aging). The performance characteristics of the asphalt mixtures were evaluated using the Marshall s

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Publication Date
Sat Jun 01 2013
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Comparison Ridge regression method with some classical methods to estimate the parameters of Lomax distribution by simulation
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Abstract

In this research provide theoretical aspects of one of the most important statistical distributions which it is Lomax, which has many applications in several areas, set of estimation methods was used(MLE,LSE,GWPM) and compare with (RRE) estimation method ,in order to find out best estimation method set of simulation experiment (36) with many replications  in order  to get mean square error and used it to make compare , simulation experiment  contrast with (estimation method, sample size ,value of location and shape parameter) results show that estimation method effected by simulation experiment factors and ability of using other estimation methods such as(Shrinkage, jackknif

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 01 2012
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Comparison between the empirical bayes method with moments method to estimate the affiliation parameter in the clinical trials using simulation
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In this research the Empirical Bayes method is used to Estimate the affiliation parameter in the clinical trials and then we compare this with the Moment Estimates for this parameter using Monte Carlo stimulation , we assumed that the distribution of the observation is binomial distribution while the distribution with the unknown random parameters is beta distribution ,finally we conclude that the Empirical bayes method for the random affiliation parameter is efficient using Mean Squares Error (MSE) and for different Sample size .

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 30 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Proposed model for the work of audit committees in the public sector and its interaction with the Federal Board of Supreme Audit to reduce the incidents of fraud
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This growing interest of the international scientific specialized commissions is due to the role that the audit committee can play, as one of companies’ governance tools, to increase the accuracy and transparency of the financial information disclosed by the companies, through its oversight role on the process of preparing financial reports, its supervision on the internal audit function within the companies, and supporting its independency, as well as coordinating the efforts between the internal control unites and the external auditor represented by the (Board of Supreme Audit) to clear the observations and irregularities in order to reduce the fraud cases.

This research was built on an applied sample of audit committee works

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Publication Date
Fri Apr 01 2022
Journal Name
Separation And Purification Technology
Application of central composite design approach for optimisation of zinc removal from aqueous solution using a Flow-by fixed bed bioelectrochemical reactor
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Publication Date
Fri Apr 01 2022
Journal Name
Separation And Purification Technology
Application of central composite design approach for optimisation of zinc removal from aqueous solution using a Flow-by fixed bed bioelectrochemical reactor
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Publication Date
Thu Jun 30 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Using a hybrid SARIMA-NARNN Model to Forecast the Numbers of Infected with (COVID-19) in Iraq
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Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is an acute disease that affects the respiratory system which initially appeared in Wuhan, China. In Feb 2019 the sickness began to spread swiftly throughout the entire planet, causing significant health, social, and economic problems. Time series is an important statistical method used to study and analyze a particular phenomenon, identify its pattern and factors, and use it to predict future values. The main focus of the research is to shed light on the study of SARIMA, NARNN, and hybrid models, expecting that the series comprises both linear and non-linear compounds, and that the ARIMA model can deal with the linear component and the NARNN model can deal with the non-linear component. The models

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Publication Date
Mon Sep 23 2019
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
A Semi-Supervised Machine Learning Approach Using K-Means Algorithm to Prevent Burst Header Packet Flooding Attack in Optical Burst Switching Network
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Optical burst switching (OBS) network is a new generation optical communication technology. In an OBS network, an edge node first sends a control packet, called burst header packet (BHP) which reserves the necessary resources for the upcoming data burst (DB). Once the reservation is complete, the DB starts travelling to its destination through the reserved path. A notable attack on OBS network is BHP flooding attack where an edge node sends BHPs to reserve resources, but never actually sends the associated DB. As a result the reserved resources are wasted and when this happen in sufficiently large scale, a denial of service (DoS) may take place. In this study, we propose a semi-supervised machine learning approach using k-means algorithm

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Publication Date
Wed May 01 2024
Journal Name
Journal Of Physics: Conference Series
A modified ARIMA model for forecasting chemical sales in the USA
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Abstract<p>model is derived, and the methodology is given in detail. The model is constructed depending on some measurement criteria, Akaike and Bayesian information criterion. For the new time series model, a new algorithm has been generated. The forecasting process, one and two steps ahead, is discussed in detail. Some exploratory data analysis is given in the beginning. The best model is selected based on some criteria; it is compared with some naïve models. The modified model is applied to a monthly chemical sales dataset (January 1992 to Dec 2019), where the dataset in this work has been downloaded from the United States of America census (www.census.gov). Ultimately, the forecasted sales </p> ... Show More
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Publication Date
Fri Mar 01 2019
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
A Digital-Based Optimal AVR Design of Synchronous Generator Exciter Using LQR Technique
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In this paper a new structure for the AVR of the power system exciter is proposed and designed using digital-based LQR. With two weighting matrices R and Q,  this method produces an optimal regulator that is used to generate the feedback control law. These matrices are called state and control weighting matrices and are used to balance between the relative importance of the input and the states in the cost function that is being optimized. A sample power system composed of single machine connected to an infinite- bus bar (SMIB) with both a conventional and a proposed Digital AVR (DAVR) is simulated. Evaluation results show that the DAVR damps well the oscillations of the terminal voltage and presents a faster respo

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