Modern statistical techniques offer a range of methodologies for modelling time series data, with conditional and unconditional approaches providing complementary insights that enhance overall model accuracy. This article introduced a modified ARIMA model employing conditional and unconditional parameter estimates. The methodology for the new model based on novel methods is provided. The prediction process, one and two steps ahead, is covered in detail, and a novel algorithm is presented. The best model is picked based on various measurement criteria, such as coefficient of determination (R2), root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean absolute scaled error (MASE). The suggested model is applied to a monthly petrol sales dataset (Jan

Quantum key distribution (QKD) provides unconditional security in theory. However, practical QKD systems face challenges in maximizing the secure key rate and extending transmission distances. In this paper, we introduce a comparative study of the BB84 protocol using coincidence detection with two different quantum channels: a free space and underwater quantum channels. A simulated seawater was used as an example for underwater quantum channel. Different single photon detection modules were used on Bob’s side to capture the coincidence counts. Results showed that increasing the mean photon number generally leads to a higher rate of coincidence detection and therefore higher possibility of increasing the secure key rate. The secure key rat

This research deals with increasing the hardening and insulating the petroleum pipes against the conditions and erosion of different environments. So, basic material of epoxy has been mixed with Ceramic Nano Zirconia reinforcement material 35 nm with the percentages  (0,1,2,3,4,5) %, whereas the paint basis of broken petroleum pipes was used  to paint on it, then it was cut into dimensions (2 cm. × 2 cm.) and 0.3cm high. After the paint and percentages are completed, the samples were immersed into the paint. Then, the micro-hardness was checked according to Vickers method and thermal inspection of paint, which contained (Thermal conduction, thermal flux and Thermal diffusivity), the density of the painted samples was calculate

This paper deals with constructing mixed probability distribution from mixing exponential

A numerical model for Polypropylene 575 polymer melts flow along the solid conveying screw of a single screw extruder under constant heat flux using ANSYS-FLUENT 17.2 software has been conducted. The model uses the thermophysical properties such as Viscosity, thermal conductivity, Specific heat and density of polypropylene 575 that measured as a function of temperature, and residence time data for process simulation. The numerical simulation using CFD models for single screw extruder and the polymer extrusion was analysed for parameters such as (thermal conductivity, specific heat, density and viscosity) reveals a high degree of similarity to experimental data measured. The most important outcome of this study is that geometrical, parame

This paper is concerned with introducing and studying the new approximation operators based on a finite family of d. g. 'swhich are the core concept in this paper. In addition, we study generalization of some Pawlak's concepts and we offer generalize the definition of accuracy measure of approximations by using a finite family of d. g. 's.