The prediction process of time series for some time-related phenomena, in particular, the autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA) models is one of the important topics in the theory of time series analysis in the applied statistics. Perhaps its importance lies in the basic stages in analyzing of the structure or modeling and the conditions that must be provided in the stochastic process. This paper deals with two methods of predicting the first was a special case of autoregressive integrated moving average which is ARIMA (0,1,1) if the value of the parameter equal to zero, then it is called Random Walk model, the second was the exponential weighted moving average (EWMA). It was implemented in the data of the monthly traff

Abstract:

 This research aims to compare Bayesian Method and Full Maximum Likelihood to estimate hierarchical Poisson regression model.

The comparison was done by  simulation  using different sample sizes (n = 30, 60, 120) and different Frequencies (r = 1000, 5000) for the experiments as was the adoption of the  Mean Square Error to compare the preference estimation methods and then choose the best way to appreciate model and concluded that hierarchical Poisson regression model that has been appreciated Full Maximum Likelihood Full Maximum Likelihood  with sample size  (n = 30) is the best to represent the maternal mortality data after it has been reliance value param

This search include the synthesis of some new 1,3-oxazepine derivatives have been prepared, starting from reaction of L-ascorbic acid with dry acetone in presence of dry hydrogen chloride afforded the acetal (I). Treatment of the latter with p-nitrobenzoyl chloride in pyridine yielded the ester (II) which was dissolved in (65%) acetic acid in absolute ethanol yielded the glycol (III). The reaction of the glycol (III) with sodium periodate in distilled water at room temperature produced the aldehyde (IV). The compound (V) [4-(1,3-dioxoisoindolin-2-yl)benzoic acid] was synthesized by reaction p-aminobenzoic acid and phthalic anhydride in presence of (gla. CH3COOH). Reaction of compound (V) with thionyl chloride produced [4-(1,3-dioxoisoindoli

The current study is a taxonomic account of three gastrotrich species that belong to Chaetonotidae (Phylum Gastrotricha) namely Ichthydium auritum Brunson, 1950 Lepidodermella squamata (Dujardin, 1841) and Chaetonotus anomalus Brunson, 1950. These species are registered as a new record from Iraq and were collected from several locations along the main outfall drain (MOD) in south of Baghdad, from January to December 2020. The species described in this article were found to be related to Hydrilla and Ceratophyllum and prefer environments rich in detritus and decomposing organic matter. The worms preferred water that is salty, hard, alkaline, and had good oxygen content.

One of the most important problems facing the world today is the energy problem. The solution was in finding renewable energy sources such as solar energy. The solar energy applications in Iraq is facing many problems . One of the most important problems is the accumulation of dust on the solar panels surface which causes decreasing its performance sharply. In the present work, a new technique was presented by using two-axis solar tracking system to reduce the accumulated dust on the solar panel surface and compared it with the fixed solar panels which installed at tilt angles 30° and 45°. The results indicated that the maximum losses of the output power due to accumulation of dust on the fixed solar panels is about 31.4% and 23.1% res

Our goal in this research, some new nucleoside analogues was synthesized. Starting from ?-D glucose which was converted to per acetylated ?-D gluco pyronoside then converted to active from(1-Bromo Sugar (2) as a sugar moiety.The base moiety 2-substituted benzimidazole was prepared from condensation of phenylene diamine with different aromatic aldehydes, which were subjected to amino alkylation via Mannich reaction forming new nucleobase derivatives. Condensation of nucleobase with bromo sugar through nucleophilic substitution of anomeric carbon with nitrogen forming new protected nucleoside analogues then hydrolyzed with sodium methoxide in methanol to obtain our target, the free nucleoside analogues. All prepared compound were identified b

In this research, cyclic compounds derived from 2- furfural mercaptan (oxazole, triazoles) were synthesized, and their biological efficacy was measured and compared with standard drugs. Also, their effectiveness as anti-oxidant was measured and compared with ascorbic acid as a standard substance. Some of the synthesized compounds were deduced with good efficacy. © 2021 Sami Publishing Company. All rights reserved

In this work, new Schiff bases of quinazolinone derivatives (Q1-Q5) were synthesized from methyl anthranilate. The synthesis involved three steps. In the first step, methyl anthranilate was reacted with isothiocyanatobenzene, producing the thiourea derivative K1. The second step entailed reacting K1 with hydrazine hydrate, synthesizing 3-amino-2-(phenylamino) quinazolin-4(3H)-one (K2). The third step involved reaction of K2 with various aromatic aldehydes, yielding the Schiff bases derivatives Q1-Q5. The chemical structures of these compounds were identified by FT-IR,1H NMR and 13C NMR spectroscopy. The newly synthesized derivatives (Q1-Q5) were subjected to rigorous evaluation to assess their efficacy as corrosion inhibitors for ca

Five N-substituted poly diimides were prepared by two steps. First step was included the preparation of five N-substituted diamides by reaction of adipoyl chloride with different amines .The second step was involved reaction of diamides with poly acryloyl chloride to obtain five new poly diimides having different physical properties which may used in different applications.