The proposal of nonlinear models is one of the most important methods in time series analysis, which has a wide potential for predicting various phenomena, including physical, engineering and economic, by studying the characteristics of random disturbances in order to arrive at accurate predictions.

In this, the autoregressive model with exogenous variable was built using a threshold as the first method, using two proposed approaches that were used to determine the best cutting point of [the predictability forward (forecasting) and the predictability in the time series (prediction), through the threshold point indicator]. B-J seasonal models are used as a second method based on the principle of the two proposed approaches in dete

Abstract

The Non - Homogeneous Poisson  process is considered  as one of the statistical subjects which had an importance in other sciences and a large application in different areas as waiting raws and rectifiable systems method , computer and communication systems and the theory of reliability and many other, also it used in modeling the phenomenon that occurred by unfixed way over time (all events that changed by time).

This research deals with some of the basic concepts that are related to the Non - Homogeneous Poisson process , This research carried out two models of the Non - Homogeneous Poisson process which are the power law model , and Musa –okumto ,   to estimate th

A novel technique Sumudu transform Adomian decomposition method (STADM), is employed to handle some kinds of nonlinear time-fractional equations. We demonstrate that this method finds the solution without discretization or restrictive assumptions. This method is efficient, simple to implement, and produces good results. The fractional derivative is described in the Caputo sense. The solutions are obtained using STADM, and the results show that the suggested technique is valid and applicable and provides a more refined convergent series solution. The MATLAB software carried out all the computations and graphics. Moreover, a graphical representation was made for the solution of some examples. For integer and fractional order problems, solutio

A novel series of liquid crystalline compounds containing 2,4-thiazolidinedione units with varying terminal alkyl chain lengths was successfully synthesized and characterized. The chemical structures of the synthesized compounds were confirmed by FT-IR, ¹H-NMR, and mass spectrometry. The mesomorphic behavior was investigated using polarized optical microscopy (POM) and differential scanning calorimetry (DSC). Compounds [V]₄, [V]₅, and [V]₆ exhibited enantiotropic nematic phases, while compound [V]₈ displayed a smectic A (SmA) phase. No liquid crystalline behavior was observed for compound [V]₃. The liquid crystalline properties were found to depend on the terminal-to-lateral chain length ratio, molecular geometry, and the nature

This paper develops a nonlinear transient three-dimensional heat transfer finite element model and a rate independent three-dimensional deformation model, developed for the CO₂ laser welding simulations in Al-6061-T6 alloy. Simulations are performed using an indirect coupled thermal-structural method for the process of welding. Temperature-dependent thermal properties of Al-6061-T6, effect of latent heat of fusion, and the convective and radiative boundary conditions are included in the model. The heat input to the model is assumed to be a Gaussian heat source. The finite element code ANSYS12, along with a few FORTRAN subroutines, are employed to obtain the numerical results. The benefit of the proposed methodology is that it

Generally, statistical methods are used in various fields of science, especially in the research field, in which Statistical analysis is carried out by adopting several techniques, according to the nature of the study and its objectives. One of these techniques is building statistical models, which is done through regression models. This technique is considered one of the most important statistical methods for studying the relationship between a dependent variable, also called (the response variable) and the other variables, called covariate variables. This research describes the estimation of the partial linear regression model, as well as the estimation of the “missing at random” values (MAR). Regarding the