The proposal of nonlinear models is one of the most important methods in time series analysis, which has a wide potential for predicting various phenomena, including physical, engineering and economic, by studying the characteristics of random disturbances in order to arrive at accurate predictions.

In this, the autoregressive model with exogenous variable was built using a threshold as the first method, using two proposed approaches that were used to determine the best cutting point of [the predictability forward (forecasting) and the predictability in the time series (prediction), through the threshold point indicator]. B-J seasonal models are used as a second method based on the principle of the two proposed approaches in dete

This study was conducted to describe a protocol for the callus establishing culture of Lavandula angustifolia plant and estimating their content of volatile oil. The quantity of volatile oil callus tissues was compared with that of leaves production. Callus was induced from leaf explants on Murashige and Skoog medium (MS) supplemented with Naphthalene acetic acid (NAA) and Benzyl adenine (BA) in different concentrations. Maximum callus fresh weight was obtained in the combination of 10 mg/L BA and 3 mg/L NAA which reached 18 g after four weeks. The results of this work showed that the  quantity of volatile oil from the highest fresh weight callus was 6 ml compared with quantity of 18g of leaves which gave 0.5 ml. Volatile o

One of the most important and common problems in petroleum engineering; reservoir, and production engineering is coning; either water or gas coning. Almost 75% of the drilled wells worldwide contains this problem, and in Iraq water coning problem is much wider than the gas coning problem thus in this paper we try to clarify most of the reasons causing water coning and some of applicable solutions to avoid it using the simulation program (CMG Builder) to build a single well model considering an Iraqi well in north of Iraq black oil field with a bottom water drive, Coning was decreased by 57% by dividing into sub-layers (8) layers rather than (4) layers, also it was decreased (Coning) by 45% when perforation numbers and positions was chang

   The simulation is the oldest theory in art, since it appeared in the Greek aesthetic thought of the philosopher Plato, as we find in many of the thinkers and philosophers over a wide period of time to reach our world today. Our fascination with art in general and design art in particular is due to the creativity and innovations of the artist through the simulation, as well as the peculiarities in this simulation, which give objects signs and signals that may have an echo that sometimes does not exist in their physical reality.

   The real representation of life and design construction, descriptions of the expression of each of them in the form of intellectual construction and the ideas of producti

Tourist business organizations face a challenging and the risks dynamic environment reflected its impact on the community and generate extra under pressure in the responsibilities and burdens of exceptional and affected much of factors, accidents and risks as a result of the actions and attitudes of disasters variety may exceed the geography of States border, which requires the absorption of risks facing the tourism and how to manage and deal with them scientific and reasonable grounds for the diagnosis and treatment of risk and how to reduce the aggravation and the different kinds.

As risks affecting the most important and vital to organizations as a tourist aspects of the market share and styles tourist

Linear programming currently occupies a prominent position in various fields and has wide applications, as its importance lies in being a means of studying the behavior of a large number of systems as well. It is also the simplest and easiest type of models that can be created to address industrial, commercial, military and other dilemmas. Through which to obtain the optimal quantitative value. In this research, we dealt with the post optimality solution, or what is known as sensitivity analysis, using the principle of shadow prices. The scientific solution to any problem is not a complete solution once the optimal solution is reached. Any change in the values of the model constants or what is known as the inputs of the model that will chan

This paper presents seven modified Adomian Decomposition Method (ADM) techniques for efficiently solving initial value problems, especially those involving non-homogeneous and nonlinear differential equations. While the classical ADM is effective for linear homogeneous cases, it has difficulties solving more complex problems. The proposed modifications—from MADM1 to MLADM—include Maclaurin and Taylor expansions, Laplace transforms, and single-step iterations.• These modifications enhance convergence, reduce complexity, and improve accuracy.• Each method offers specific advantages, such as accelerating convergence (MADM2, RADM4), simplifying computation (TSADM5), and achieving higher accuracy (MLADM).• Numerical examples confirm th

Abstract: Plastic pollution is a major issue of the current century. This waste is found in seas, freshwater, lakes, rivers, coastal areas, and soil. In this article, this article discusses the various sources of plastic pollution, including the manufacturing process of plastics and the addition of materials to improve their properties, as well as the use of single-use plastics that are not recyclable, in addition to burning and illegal waste disposal in the open. The impact on public health is through human exposure to toxins from plastics in the environment directly through inhaling dust and fumes, consuming contaminated food and drink, and skin contact. Indirectly, when marine creatures consume microplastics, they will find their way