Statistical methods of forecasting have applied with the intention of constructing a model to predict the number of the old aged people in retirement homes in Iraq. They were based on the monthly data of old aged people in Baghdad and the governorates except for the Kurdistan region from 2016 to 2019. Using Box-Jenkins methodology, the stationarity of the series was examined. The appropriate model order was determined, the parameters were estimated, the significance was tested, adequacy of the model was checked, and then the best model of prediction was used. The best model for forecasting according to criteria of (Normalized BIC, MAPE, RMSE) is ARIMA (0, 1, 2).

Statistical methods of forecasting have applied with the intention of constructing a model to predict the number of the old aged people in retirement homes in Iraq. They were based on the monthly data of old aged people in Baghdad and the governorates except for the Kurdistan region from 2016 to 2019. Using BoxJenkins methodology, the stationarity of the series was examined. The appropriate model order was determined, the parameters were estimated, the significance was tested, adequacy of the model was checked, and then the best model of prediction was used. The best model for forecasting according to criteria of (Normalized BIC, MAPE, RMSE) is ARIMA (0, 1, 2)

Chitinase-3-like 1 protein (YKL-40) is a glycoprotein primarily produced in the arthritic joint and plays a crucial role in inflammatory processes. The aim of the study is to establish the role of YKL-40 as a biomarker for rheumatoid arthritis (RA) compared to proinflammatory biomarkers and disease activity. The study included 58 patients and 18 control. Diseases activity score (DAS-28) and clinical disease activity index (CDAI) were measured. Serum level of YKL-40, tumor necrosis factor-α (TNF-α), interleukin-1B (IL-1β), erythrocyte sedimentation (ESR), rheumatoid factor (RF), C-reactive protein (CRP), and anti-citrullinated protein antibody (ACPA) were assessed. The results showed that the median serum YKL-40 level which was 5.42 

Background: Propolis has received great interest because of its wide range antimicrobial activity. Propolis also called (bee glue) due to its collection by (Apismellifera) honeybees from various plants resinous substance. The aim of this study was to determine the antibacterial effect of propolis extracts (aqueous and alcoholic) on anaerobic periodontal pathogen namely Aggregatibacteractinomycetemcomitans. Materials and Methods: Strains of Aggregatibacter actinomycetemcomitans wasisolated from pockets of systemically healthy patients aged between 35-55 years old suffering from chronic periodontitis with pocket depths of 5-6 mm, the bacteria cultured on special blood Agar plates solid media. Propolis was extracted by using water and alcohol.

Background: Parkinson's disease (PD) is a neurodegenerative aging disease, with idiopathic PD being most common. Gastrointestinal tract disorders (GITD) and microbiota changes may trigger idiopathic PD. Neurotoxins from microbiota can travel from the gut to the brain via the brain-gut axis (BGA), leading to α-syn protein misfolding and dopaminergic neuron death. Methods: The aim of the current study was to investigate the link between PD and GITD by measuring several biochemical and immunological markers in 142 patients. The biochemical markers measured were vitamins B6, B12, and D, calcium, serotonin, ghrelin, dopamine, and α-syn protein. The immunological markers included transforming growth factor-beta (TGF-β), tu

          This paper deals with studying the effect of hole inclination angle on computing slip velocity and consequently its effect on lifting capacity. The study concentrates on selected vertical wells in Rumaila field, Southern Iraq. Different methods were used to calculate lifting capacity. Lifting capacity is the most important factor for successful drilling and which reflex on preventing hole problems and reduces drilling costs. Many factors affect computing lifting capacity, so hence the effect of hole inclination angle on lifting capacity will be shown in this study. A statistical approach was used to study the lifting capacity values which deal with the effect of hole

The problem of frequency estimation of a single sinusoid observed in colored noise is addressed. Our estimator is based on the operation of the sinusoidal digital phase-locked loop (SDPLL) which carries the frequency information in its phase error after the noisy sinusoid has been acquired by the SDPLL. We show by computer simulations that this frequency estimator beats the Cramer-Rao bound (CRB) on the frequency error variance for moderate and high SNRs when the colored noise has a general low-pass filtered (LPF) characteristic, thereby outperforming, in terms of frequency error variance, several existing techniques some of which are, in addition, computationally demanding. Moreover, the present approach generalizes on existing work tha

Background: Pemphigus vulgaris (PV) is an autoimmune vesiculobullous mucocutaneous disease with life-threatening consequences. Rituximab (RTX) has recently emerged as an effective treatment for PV. Objectives: This study aims to determine changes in neutrophil and platelet counts for PV patients treated with RTX or corticosteroids combined with Imuran (azathioprine). Materials and Methods: The present cross-sectional study was conducted in the Department of Dermatology at Baghdad Teaching Hospital, Baghdad, Iraq. Thirty PV patients received two types of treatment: 15 patients were administered RTX and 15 patients took corticosteroids with Imuran (azathioprine). Neutrophil and platelet counts were detected at the hospital laboratory. Results

BACKGROUND: Preeclampsia (PE) is a possible etiology of obstetrical and neonatal complications which are increased in resource-limited settings and developing countries. AIM: We aimed to find out the prevalence of PE in Iraqi ladies and specific outcomes, including gestational weight gain (GWG), cesarean section (CS), preterm delivery (PD), and low birth weight (LBW). METHODS: All singleton pregnant women visiting our tertiary center for delivery were involved over 3 years. PE women were compared with non-PE ladies. Complete history and examination were done during pregnancy and after delivery by the attending obstetrician and neonatologist with full documentation in medical records. RESULTS: PE prevalence was 4.79