Statistical methods of forecasting have applied with the intention of constructing a model to predict the number of the old aged people in retirement homes in Iraq. They were based on the monthly data of old aged people in Baghdad and the governorates except for the Kurdistan region from 2016 to 2019. Using BoxJenkins methodology, the stationarity of the series was examined. The appropriate model order was determined, the parameters were estimated, the significance was tested, adequacy of the model was checked, and then the best model of prediction was used. The best model for forecasting according to criteria of (Normalized BIC, MAPE, RMSE) is ARIMA (0, 1, 2)

Statistical methods of forecasting have applied with the intention of constructing a model to predict the number of the old aged people in retirement homes in Iraq. They were based on the monthly data of old aged people in Baghdad and the governorates except for the Kurdistan region from 2016 to 2019. Using Box-Jenkins methodology, the stationarity of the series was examined. The appropriate model order was determined, the parameters were estimated, the significance was tested, adequacy of the model was checked, and then the best model of prediction was used. The best model for forecasting according to criteria of (Normalized BIC, MAPE, RMSE) is ARIMA (0, 1, 2).

Abstract

       The grey system model GM(1,1) is the model of the prediction of the time series and the basis of the grey theory. This research presents the methods for estimating parameters of the grey model GM(1,1) is the accumulative method (ACC), the exponential method (EXP), modified exponential method (Mod EXP) and the Particle Swarm Optimization method (PSO). These methods were compared based on the Mean square error (MSE) and the Mean Absolute percentage error (MAPE) as a basis comparator and the simulation method was adopted for the best of the four methods, The best method was obtained and then applied to real data. This data represents the consumption rate of two types of oils a he

Folic acid and multivitamin tablets containing Aspergillus flavus Penicillia spp. and Cladosporia spores were prepared at a compression pressure of 148 MN/m² and stored at 35°C under different relative  humidifies (75,85, and 95)% within air tight containers, to study the effect of storage condition on them, as well as ,the estimation of the microbial level of the raw materials intended to be used in the two kinds of tablets . Result showed that some raw materials derived from natural origin were heavily contaminated with microorganism compared to that of synthetic origin ,the results also indicated the effect of relative humidity , types of fungal spore , and the hygroscopic nature of exicpient upon survival. Multivit

Dental casts come into direct contact with impression materials and other items that are contaminated by saliva and blood from a patient's mouth, leaving the casts susceptible to cross-contamination. The disinfectant solutions of the impression materials cause various adverse reactions. Therefore, disinfection of dental casts may be effective in preventing cross infection. This study was carried out to evaluate the surface hardness, dimensional accuracy, reproduction of details and surface porosity of type III, type IV and type IV extra hard dental stone after immersion in and spray by using SOLO and Sodium hypochlorite disinfectant solutions. Materials and methods: 240 Stone samples were prepared in rubber rings, A total of 60 test block w

Nitrogen (N) is a key growth and yield-limiting factor in cultivated rice areas. This study has been conducted to evaluate the effects of different conditions of N application on rice yield and yield components (Shiroudi cultivar) in Babol (Mazandaran, Iran) during the 2015- 2016 season. A factorial experiment executed of a Randomized Complete Block Design (RCBD) used in three iterations. In the first factor, treatments were four N amounts (including 50, 90, 130, and 170 kg N ha^-1), while in the second factor, the treatments consisted of four different fertilizer splitting methods, including T₁:70 % at the basal stage + 30 % at the maximum tillering stage, T₂:1/3 at the basal stage + 1/3 at the maximum ti

Background: Dental casts come into direct contact with impression materials and other items that are contaminated by saliva and blood from a patient's mouth, leaving the casts susceptible to cross-contamination. The disinfectant solutions of the impression materials cause various adverse reactions. Therefore, disinfection of dental casts may be effective in preventing cross infection. This study was carried out to evaluate the surface hardness, dimensional accuracy, reproduction of details and surface porosity of type III, type IV and type IV extra hard dental stone after immersion in and spray by using SOLO and Sodium hypochlorite disinfectant solutions. Materials and methods: 240 Stone samples were prepared in rubber rings, A total of 60

Background: Dental casts come into direct contact with impression materials and other items that are contaminated by saliva and blood from a patient's mouth, leaving the casts susceptible to cross-contamination. The disinfectant solutions of the impression materials cause various adverse reactions. Therefore, disinfection of dental casts may be effective in preventing cross infection. This study was carried out to evaluate the surface hardness, dimensional accuracy, reproduction of details and surface porosity of type III, type IV and type IV extra hard dental stone after immersion in and spray by using SOLO and Sodium hypochlorite disinfectant solutions. Materials and methods: 240 Stone samples were prepared in rubber rings, A total of 60

Diarrhea is a real disease in childhood which could cause death. Therefore, this study was conducted to isolate Salmonella from 350 stool samples taken from children under five years in age, suffering from diarrhea during the period from March 2019 to March 2020 in Tikrit city / Iraq. The results showed the possibility to isolate ten isolates of Salmonella enterica subsp. Enterica, an infection rate, represents 2.875% of the total rate of patients who suffer from diarrhea. The virulence genes were investigated for ten isolates of S. enterica subsp. enterica, the result is that all isolates possessed the genes stn, invA, lpfA with an appearance percentage of 100%, whi

         In the present work, the magnetic dipole and electric quadrupole moments for some sodium isotopes have been calculated using the shell model, considering the effect of the two-body effective interactions and the single-particle potentials. These isotopes are; ²¹Na (3/2+), ²³Na (3/2+), ²⁵Na (5/2+), ²⁶Na (3+), ²⁷Na (5/2+), ²⁸Na (1+) and, ²⁹Na (3/2+). The one-body transition density matrix elements (OBDM) have been calculated using the (USDA, USDB, HBUMSD and W) two-body effective interactions carried out in the sd-shell model space. The sd shell model space consists of the active 2s_1/2, 1d_5/2,