The prediction process of time series for some time-related phenomena, in particular, the autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA) models is one of the important topics in the theory of time series analysis in the applied statistics. Perhaps its importance lies in the basic stages in analyzing of the structure or modeling and the conditions that must be provided in the stochastic process. This paper deals with two methods of predicting the first was a special case of autoregressive integrated moving average which is ARIMA (0,1,1) if the value of the parameter equal to zero, then it is called Random Walk model, the second was the exponential weighted moving average (EWMA). It was implemented in the data of the monthly traff

This study deals with the time property in the cinema through two films: (The Knife) directed by Khalid Hamada and (The Deceived) directed by Tawfiq Saleh. These two films were excerpted by the cinema from two novels of the Palestinian writer Ghassan Kanafani, the first is from the novel (What is Left for You) and the second is from the novel (Men in the Sun).  If the Palestinian novel has imposed its presence on the Arab creative scene through a group of novelists who took it upon themselves to communicate their cause to the world,   the Palestinian cinema has been far from being a purely Palestinian, because many of the cinematic works have been provided by Arab countries on the issue, while this cinema is still seeking

This study deals with the intellectual representations whose intellectual systems are incarnated in the Jewish personality, which is considered one of the complex intellectual systems that has caused controversy throughout the ages because of the ambiguity due to the religious and psychological factors that were reflected directly and strongly on the intellectual structure of the Jewish community in general and the Jewish - Zionist personality in particular, in an attempt (to create new dimensions embodied by intellectual representations of a human nature embodied by what that - peaceful - religiously oppressed - psychologically and socially isolated character presents, because of the curse of the peoples of the world that was a cause fo

Abstract

The study discussed three areas in strategic thinking, namely, (patterns elements, outcomes) , this study aimed to measure extent to which strategic leaders have the type or types of patterns of strategic thinking, and measure the extent of their use of the elements of strategic thinking, and measurement of strategic thinking outcomes for managers at various levels , And to know the relationship between the modes of strategic thinking, elements and outcomes in organizations. the study included five banks and four hospitals and four colleges and universities, has been a research sample consisted of 168 individuals, distributed in positions (Director General , Director of Directorate , Director of

The principle of citizenship has international dimensions that affect the application of the principle, such as the structure of the international system, and the control of the concepts of globalization, international organizations which played an important role in the consolidation of this principle.

The problem of the study revolves around the effects of international variables on the principle of citizenship in Kuwait during the period 1991-2018.

The study used several indicators, such as: the rule of law, achieving the principle of separation of powers, the right to form parties, the application of the law of nationality, and racial discrimination, women's rights, and freedom of expression.

Purpose: clarify the integrative relationship of strategic leadership skills and effective management and the role of those skills combined or individually in achieving effective management.

Research design: The researchers used the quantitative method by surveying a class sample from the heads of the executive departments in a group of Iraqi private banks, consisting of (106) individuals according to the (VUCA Prime) methodology for effective management and the ten skills model for Johansen. The questionnaire was analyzed using a model of the structural equation.

Findings: The most prominent results of the research were the presence of a weak ro

The research aims at integrating the disclosure of the business models with the qualitative characteristics of accounting information. To achieve this, the elements of the business model should be identified and disclosed, and then study the possibility of integrating the disclosure of the business model with the qualitative characteristics of accounting information.

To achieve this objective, the research was based on the indicators of disclosure of the business model of the International Accounting Standards Board to measure the disclosure of the business model.

The research reached a number of conclusions, the most important of which were as follows:

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Modern statistical techniques offer a range of methodologies for modelling time series data, with conditional and unconditional approaches providing complementary insights that enhance overall model accuracy. This article introduced a modified ARIMA model employing conditional and unconditional parameter estimates. The methodology for the new model based on novel methods is provided. The prediction process, one and two steps ahead, is covered in detail, and a novel algorithm is presented. The best model is picked based on various measurement criteria, such as coefficient of determination (R2), root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean absolute scaled error (MASE). The suggested model is applied to a monthly petrol sales dataset (Jan