Modern statistical techniques offer a range of methodologies for modelling time series data, with conditional and unconditional approaches providing complementary insights that enhance overall model accuracy. This article introduced a modified ARIMA model employing conditional and unconditional parameter estimates. The methodology for the new model based on novel methods is provided. The prediction process, one and two steps ahead, is covered in detail, and a novel algorithm is presented. The best model is picked based on various measurement criteria, such as coefficient of determination (R2), root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean absolute scaled error (MASE). The suggested model is applied to a monthly petrol sales dataset (Jan

Aim of the Study: The paper aims at identifying the extent of the role of strategic leadership represented by its four dimensions (administrative, transformational, political, moral) in fulfilling the requirements of university governance (Context, message and Goal, Management orientation, Independence, Issue, Sharing)

Methodology: A survey is applied to (107) members of the teaching staff at the college of Administration and Economics/ University of Mosul.  To achieve the goals of the study, the researcher makes use of a number of tools such as:  questionnaire, statistical tools and methods (repetitions, perce

The article considers a creolized text as a means of modern communication, describing its key verbal and visual components; the relationship of concepts polycode and creolized text has been shown; the universal basic image features have been called; the following kinds of creolized texts have been distinguished; it has been proved that the effective means of attracting the attention of the addressee is the use of expressive font features, which are divided into two groups: topographics (mechanisms of varying of areal syntagmatic of a text) and supragraphcs (change of typeface of font).

The calibration of a low-speed wind tunnel (LSWT) test section had been made in the present work. The tunnel was designed and constructed at the Aerodynamics Lab. in the Mechanical Engineering Department/University of Baghdad. The test section design speed is 70 m/s. Frictional loses and uniformity of the flow inside the test section had been tested and calibrated based on the British standards for flow inside ducts and conduits. Pitot-static tube, boundary layer Pitot tube were the main instruments which were used in the present work to measure the flow characteristics with emphasize on the velocity uniformity and boundary layer growth along the walls of the test section. It is found that the maximum calibrated velocity for empty test sect

A particular solution of the two and three dimensional unsteady state thermal or mass diffusion equation is obtained by introducing a combination of variables of the form,
η = (x+y) / √ct , and η = (x+y+z) / √ct, for two and three dimensional equations
respectively. And the corresponding solutions are,
θ (t,x,y) = θ₀ erfc (x+y)/√8ct and θ( t,x,y,z) =θ₀ erfc (x+y+z/√12ct)

The aim of this paper is to identify Nano-particles that have been used in diagnosis and treatment of leishmaniasis in Iraq. All experiments conducted in this field were based on the following nanoparticles: gold nanoparticles, silver nanoparticles, zinc nanoparticles, and sodium chloride nanoparticles. Most of these experiments were reviewed in terms of differences in the concentrations of nanoparticles and the method that was used in the experiments whether it was in vivo or in vitro. These particles used in most experiments succeeded in inhibiting the growth of Leishmania parasites.

ZG Abdulrazaq, MR Younus, Nasaq, 2023

In this paper, a Cholera epidemic model is proposed and studied analytically as well as numerically. It is assumed that the disease is transmitted by contact with Vibrio cholerae and infected person according to dose-response function. However, the saturated treatment function is used to describe the recovery process. Moreover, the vaccine against the disease is assumed to be utterly ineffective. The existence, uniqueness and boundedness of the solution of the proposed model are discussed. All possible equilibrium points and the basic reproduction number are determined. The local stability and persistence conditions are established. Lyapunov method and the second additive compound matrix are used to study the global stability of the system.

Stylistics represents a modern approach in understanding the literary text through the linguistic patterns that form it. The distinctive phenomena that the text includes constitute special features in it. As well as exploring its aesthetic aspects through description and analysis at the same time. The close link between stylistics and linguistics made stylistics occupy a prominent place in modern literary criticism.
In this regard, we do not want to dwell on the different directions of stylistics. Rather, we will prolong the discussion in the study of the style as a (deviation. Aversion) from the original. Because this trend plays on the chord of the paradox between the surface structure and the deep structure, especially when the sur