Modern statistical techniques offer a range of methodologies for modelling time series data, with conditional and unconditional approaches providing complementary insights that enhance overall model accuracy. This article introduced a modified ARIMA model employing conditional and unconditional parameter estimates. The methodology for the new model based on novel methods is provided. The prediction process, one and two steps ahead, is covered in detail, and a novel algorithm is presented. The best model is picked based on various measurement criteria, such as coefficient of determination (R2), root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean absolute scaled error (MASE). The suggested model is applied to a monthly petrol sales dataset (Jan

Background: The most crucial mechanism of genetic variation in N. meningitidis is the slipped strand mispairing, this mechanism generates Phase variation using simple sequence repeat (SSR) and is commonly used by the N. meningitidis to escape the immune system despite its function in eradicating the pathogenic and commensal bacteria. Some of simple sequence repeats (SSRs) that located within the genome works as phase variation while other SSRs have no role in generating phase variation mechanisms. Therefore, Aim: the main goal of the current in silico study was to detect the probability of SSR to enroll with phase variation for the entire N. meningitidis genome. Methods: Different criteria were used to judge SSR as

The present study aimed at examining the factors that affect the choice of A major among a sample of BA fe(male) students at the levels 3-8 in King Abdulaziz University (KAU), in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. To meet this objective, a descriptive survey method was used together with a questionnaire that consisted of 4 axes to answer the central question: What are the factors affecting the choice of a major at the university? Results have shown that the item that measured the students’ ability to choose the major ranked (First); it was concerned with the effect on the students' choice of his/her major in the university. On the last position and with respect to this effect came the professional tendencies and desires. Results have also shown tha

Abstract: A novel design of Mach Zehnder Interferometer (MZI) in terms of using special type of optical fiber that has double clad with graded distribution of the refractive index that can be easily implemented practically was suggested and simulated in this work. The suggested design is compact, rapid, and is simple to be modified and tested. The simulated design contains a MZI of 1546.74 nm of central wavelength that is constructed using special type of double clad optical fiber that has two different numerical apertures. The first aperture will supply single mode propagation via its core, while the second numerical aperture supports a zigzag wave propagation (multimode) in the first clad region. The interferometer’s

Background: The study aim was to evaluate thermocycling effect on microleakage of occlusal and cervical margins of MOD cavity filled with bulk filled composites in comparison to incrementally placed nanohybrid composite and to evaluate the difference in microleakage between enamel and dentin margins for the three materials groups. Materials and method: Forty eight maxillary first premolars were prepared with MOD cavities. Samples were divided into three groups of sixteen teeth according to material used: Grandio: Grandio. SDR: SDR +Grandio. X-tra: X-tra base + Grandio. Each group was subdivided into two according to be thermocycled or not. After 24 hrs immersion in 2% methylene blue, samples weresectioned and microleakage was estimated. Res

     This article aims to determine the time-dependent heat coefficient together with the temperature solution for a type of semi-linear time-fractional inverse source problem by applying a method based on the finite difference scheme and Tikhonov regularization. An unconditionally stable implicit finite difference scheme is used as a direct (forward) solver. While by the MATLAB routine lsqnonlin from the optimization toolbox, the inverse problem is reformulated as nonlinear least square minimization and solved efficiently. Since the problem is generally incorrect or ill-posed that means any error inclusion in the input data will produce a large error in the output data. Therefore, the Tikhonov regularization technique is applie

A novel planar type antenna printed on a high permittivity Rogers’ substrate is proposed for early stage microwave breast cancer detection. The design is based on a p-shaped wide-slot structure with microstrip feeding circuit to eliminate losses of transmission. The design parameters are optimized resulting in a good reflection coefficient at −10 dB from 4.5 to 10.9 GHz. Imaging result using inhomogeneous breast phantom indicates that the proposed antenna is capable of detecting a 5 mm size cancerous tumor embedded inside the fibroglandular region with dielectric contrast between the target and the surrounding materials ranging from 1.7 : 1 to 3.6 : 1.

Background: Heat-cured poly (methyl methacrylate) the principal material for the fabrication of denture base have a relatively poor mechanical properties. The aim of this study was to investigate the effect of glass flakes used as reinforcement on the surface hardness and surface roughness of the heat-processed acrylic resin material. Material and method: Glass flakes (product code: GF002) pretreated with silane coupling agent were added to Triplex® denture base powder using different concentrations. A total of 100 specimens of similar dimensions (65 x 10 x 2.5) mm were prepared, subdivided into 2 main groups of 50 specimens for each of the study tests. Ten specimens for the control group and 40 specimens for each of the experimental gro