Statistical methods of forecasting have applied with the intention of constructing a model to predict the number of the old aged people in retirement homes in Iraq. They were based on the monthly data of old aged people in Baghdad and the governorates except for the Kurdistan region from 2016 to 2019. Using BoxJenkins methodology, the stationarity of the series was examined. The appropriate model order was determined, the parameters were estimated, the significance was tested, adequacy of the model was checked, and then the best model of prediction was used. The best model for forecasting according to criteria of (Normalized BIC, MAPE, RMSE) is ARIMA (0, 1, 2)

Search Results at the International Journal of Science and Research (IJSR)

The aim of this research is to assess the validity of Detailed Micro-Modeling (DMM) as a numerical model for masonry analysis. To achieve this aim, a set of load-displacement curves obtained based on both numerical simulation and experimental results of clay masonry prisms loaded by a vertical load. The finite element method was implemented in DMM for analysis of the experimental clay masonry prism. The finite element software ABAQUS with implicit solver was used to model and analyze the clay masonry prism subjected to a vertical load. The load-displacement relationship of numerical model was found in good agreement with those drawn from experimental results. Evidence shows that load-displacement curvefound from the finite element m

A numerical study has been carried out to investigate heat transfer by natural convection and radiation under the effect of magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) for steady state axisymmetric twodimensional laminar flow in a vertical cylindrical channel filled with saturated porous media. Heat is generated uniformly along the center of the channel with its vertical surface remain with cooled constant wall temperature and insulated horizontal top and bottom surfaces. The governing equations which used are continuity, momentum and energy equations which are transformed to dimensionless equations. The finite difference approach is used to obtain all the computational results using the MATLAB-7 programming. The parameters affected on the system are Rayl

Problem of water scarcity is becoming common in many parts of the world.  Thus to overcome this problem proper management of water and an efficient irrigation systems are needed.  Irrigation with buried vertical ceramic pipe is known as a very effective in management of irrigation water.  The two- dimensional transient flow of water from a buried vertical ceramic pipe through homogenous porous media is simulated numerically using the software HYDRUS/2D to predict empirical formulas that describe the predicted results accurately.   Different values of pipe lengths and hydraulic conductivity were selected.  In addition, different values of initial volumetric soil water content were assumed in this simulation a

Knowing the distribution of the mechanical rock properties and in-situ stresses for the field of interest is essential for many applications concerning reservoir geomechanics, including wellbore instability analysis, hydraulic fracturing, sand production, reservoir compaction, subsidence and water/gas injection throughout the filed life cycle. Determining the rock's mechanical properties is challenging because they cannot be directly measured at the borehole. The recovered carbonate core samples are limited and only provide discrete data for specific depths. This study focuses on creating a detailed 1D geomechanical model of the Mishrif reservoir in the Nasriyah oil field to identify the fault regime type for each unit in the format

A harvested prey-predator model with infectious disease in preyis investigated. It is assumed that the predator feeds on the infected prey only according to Holling type-II functional response. The existence, uniqueness and boundedness of the solution of the model are investigated. The local stability analysis of the harvested prey-predator model is carried out. The necessary and sufficient conditions for the persistence of the model are also obtained. Finally, the global dynamics of this model is investigated analytically as well as numerically. It is observed that, the model have different types of dynamical behaviors including chaos.

A cut-off low is a closed low with a low value of geopotential height at the upper atmospheric levels that has been fully detached (cut-off) from the westerly flow and move independently. A cut-off low causes extreme rainfall events in the mid-latitudes regions. The main aim of this paper is to investigate the cut-off low at 500 hPa over Iraq from a synoptic point of view and the behavior of geopotential height at 500 hPa. To examine the association of the cut-off low at 500 hPa with rainfall events across Iraq, two case studies of heavy rainfall events from different times were conducted. The results showed that the cut-off low at 500 hPa with a low value of geopotential height will strengthen the low-pressure system at the surface, lea