Dam break is series phenomenon that can result in fatal consequences and loss of properties. Unfortunately, the observed consequences can only be available after the dam breaks. Therefore, it is important to anticipate what will happen prior to dam break to issue suitable warning and locate the possible risk areas. This study attempts to simulate the case of dam break in Blue Nile at Roseires dam and see its consequences downstream. Roseires dam lies at a distance of 630 km south of Khartoum, Sennar dam lies at about 260 km downstream of Roseires dam. In this study hydraulic model is developed based of Hydraulic Engineering Centre (HEC), River Analysis System (RAS), and HEC- RAS. The HEC-RAS based model is calibrated and validated using observed data of the Blue Nile for several flood years. The calibrated and validated model is used to analyze the impact of flood wave due to dam break failure of Roseires dam to provide the following information: the maximum discharge, the maximum water level, the maximum velocity, the velocity and depth profiles, the flooding extent, etc. Several dam break scenarios that cover the possible failure modes were considered and the scenario that gives the worst situation is present in this paper. Piping is considered as failure mode with different failure parameters. It was found that failure of Roseires dam result in overtopping failure of Sennar dam due to the inability of the Sennar reservoir and dam to withstand the flood wave. The results also indicated that the maximum flood wave resulting from the failure of Roseires dam reaches Khartoum in 4, 6, 7 and 9 days when the maximum flow is 33105, 14724, 13249 and 12443 m3/s respectively the cities (Roseires, Sennar, Wad Medani and Khartoum ). The respective water surface level of flood wave is 481.01, 428.37 and 382.5 m in Roseires, Sennar and Khartoum and the wave speed at Khartoum is 8.97 m/s.
We have studied Bayesian method in this paper by using the modified exponential growth model, where this model is more using to represent the growth phenomena. We focus on three of prior functions (Informative, Natural Conjugate, and the function that depends on previous experiments) to use it in the Bayesian method. Where almost of observations for the growth phenomena are depended on one another, which in turn leads to a correlation between those observations, which calls to treat such this problem, called Autocorrelation, and to verified this has been used Bayesian method.
The goal of this study is to knowledge the effect of Autocorrelation on the estimation by using Bayesian method. F
... Show MoreA perturbed linear system with property of strong observability ensures that there is a sliding mode observer to estimate the unknown form inputs together with states estimation. In the case of the electro-hydraulic system with piston position measured output, the above property is not met. In this paper, the output and its derivatives estimation were used to build a dynamic structure that satisfy the condition of strongly observable. A high order sliding mode observer (HOSMO) was used to estimate both the resulting unknown perturbation term and the output derivatives. Thereafter with one signal from the whole system (piton position), the piston position make tracking to desire one with a simple linear output feedback controller after ca
... Show MoreProcessed and red The Western diet, a modern dietary pattern, typically consists of meat, sugar-filled beverages, candies, chocolates, fried foods, prefabricated meals, refined cereals, conventionally produced animal products, high-fat dairy products, and high-fructose items. The goal of this review is to outline how the Western pattern diet affects gut microbiota and mitochondrial fitness, as well as metabolism, inflammation, and antioxidant status. Cancer, mental health, and cardiovascular health; We offer a thorough analysis of how the westernized diet and related nutrients affect immune cell responses as well as the hygienic costs of the Western diet. A consensus critical evaluation utilizing primary sources, including scientifi
... Show MoreThis study aims to identify changes in vegetation cover and its impact on the climate of Mosul City. The analytical method of the study relies on changes in Land Use/Land Cover (LULC), Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), and Land Surface Temperature (LST); GIS technology was used to measure these statistics. Landsat (5,8) imagery was used to detect the change in vegetation cover change and land surface temperature during the study period from 2010 to 2022, where the unsupervised classification technique was used to determine LU variations. The results revealed significant changes among the LU classes during the study period, primarily due to human activities. The most prominent change in LU was the urban expansion of agricultural
... Show MoreCanonical correlation analysis is one of the common methods for analyzing data and know the relationship between two sets of variables under study, as it depends on the process of analyzing the variance matrix or the correlation matrix. Researchers resort to the use of many methods to estimate canonical correlation (CC); some are biased for outliers, and others are resistant to those values; in addition, there are standards that check the efficiency of estimation methods.
In our research, we dealt with robust estimation methods that depend on the correlation matrix in the analysis process to obtain a robust canonical correlation coefficient, which is the method of Biwe
... Show Moreهدفت الدراسة الى الاهتمام واستغلال ماهو جديد من تقنيات واجهزة حديثة في تعليم السباحة الحرة عن طريق توجيه الاطفال على تطوير مداركهم واستيعابهم بالتطور التكنولوجي الذي يتناوله العالم ،قامت الباحثتان باعداد منهج تعليمي باستخدام نظارة الواقع الافتراضي وذالك بتوفير بيئة مشابهة للبيئة الحقيقية تحاكي مدارك عقول الاطفال في عالم افتراضي لتتكون صورة كاملة عن مهارات السباحة الحرة ،ومن هنا اتت المشكلة نتيجة تعل
... Show MoreIn this study, a one-dimensional model represented by Butler-Volmer-Monod (BVM) model was proposed to compute the anode overpotential and current density in a mediator-less MFC system. The system was fueled with various organic loadings of real field petroleum refinery oily sludge to optimize the favorable organic loading for biomass to operate the suggested system. The increase in each organic loading showed higher resistance to electrons transport to the anode represented by ohmic loss. On the contrary, both activation and mass transfer losses exhibited a noticeable decrement upon the increased organic loadings. However, current density was improved throughout all increased loads achieving a maximum current density of 5.2 A/m3
... Show MoreThe gas-lift method is crucial for maintaining oil production, particularly from an established field when the natural energy of the reservoirs is depleted. To maximize oil production, a major field's gas injection rate must be distributed as efficiently as possible across its gas-lift network system. Common gas-lift optimization techniques may lose their effectiveness and become unable to replicate the gas-lift optimum in a large network system due to problems with multi-objective, multi-constrained & restricted gas injection rate distribution. The main objective of the research is to determine the possibility of using the genetic algorithm (GA) technique to achieve the optimum distribution for the continuous gas-lift injectio
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The logistic regression model of the most important regression models a non-linear which aim getting estimators have a high of efficiency, taking character more advanced in the process of statistical analysis for being a models appropriate form of Binary Data.
Among the problems that appear as a result of the use of some statistical methods I
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