The prediction process of time series for some time-related phenomena, in particular, the autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA) models is one of the important topics in the theory of time series analysis in the applied statistics. Perhaps its importance lies in the basic stages in analyzing of the structure or modeling and the conditions that must be provided in the stochastic process. This paper deals with two methods of predicting the first was a special case of autoregressive integrated moving average which is ARIMA (0,1,1) if the value of the parameter equal to zero, then it is called Random Walk model, the second was the exponential weighted moving average (EWMA). It was implemented in the data of the monthly traff

             Seen in Iraq that the volume of insurance activity in the case of a clear deterioration and a sharp decline in demand for life insurance, because of reluctance by senior members of the Iraqi society on the demand for life insurance. The study was descriptive approach in identifying and addressing variables, namely the (perception of risk need of the individual trends in personal income of the individual insurance awareness of the individual customs and traditions of communal religious belief of the individual age and sex of the individual methods promotional company competitive alternatives to the insurance service life inflation rate service life insurance) indepen

Abstract

     Performance evaluation is of great importance in all countries of the world, because it has a prominent and effective role in determining the efficiency and effectiveness of the optimal use of available resources, which are rare and important in achieving the desired objectives. With the continued growth of public spending and the limited resources, the State seeks to achieve its objectives through its units with minimal expenditure or deficit, rationality and wastefulness in the spending. In many countries, particularly developing countries, reforms are made in the public sector to achieve that goal through the adoption of IPSAS, which is reflected in the developmen

The dubbing process for the Foreign Dramas by the Kurdish language became a serious phenomenon in the Kurdish satellite TV, especially in the past few years. It attracted a wide audience, especially young adolescents. And prepared by some breakthrough hostile to Kurdish culture and value coordinated by others remedy for the structural gaps and lapses have, as a result of climate which is brought into existence globalization and secretions variety dimensional, saturated value and cognitive effects bearing a strong identity of its elements. From here, the problem of this research is the ambiguity of their role in a series of developmental processes Kurdish awareness of young people and the extent of the impact that caused it.

This

شهد العصر الحالي سرعة فائقة في انتاج وسائل الاتصال لاسيما في حقل الاتصال الاليكتروني وتوضح ذلك عبر الاندماج بين ظاهرة الكم الهائل من المعلومات وتعدد الوسائل الاتصالية وذلك لتحقيق الهدف المنشود لبث الرسالة الاتصالية الا وهو التفاعل من اجل التأثير في الفرد ومن ثم المجتمع ككل , فيما اضحت العلاقات العامة احد العوامل المؤثرة في عملية التغيير الاجتماعي بما تستند اليه من ممارسات تضعها في اطار الوظائف المجتمعية ال

In pre- Islamic poetry, there are a lot of words that indicate
peacefulness of one sort of another, in addition to the inspirations of semantic
modeling in which the poet sets himself in various horizons.
Among these words: brother, comrade, friend, companion, lover,
people, prince, home, land, country, blessing, honesty, contract, company,
justice, thankfulness, forgiveness, pardoning, guest, goodness, faithfulness,
silence, death, peace,….
In addition, there are their derivatives from various aspects that indicate
peacefulness either directly or indirectly.

In this research the subject of human ability to change, as it is proven in the Koran , which is proof of the argument against the ability of human change , whether the change in the positive or negative direction .
Here the limits of the research are limited to a study of analysis of human ability to change and this establishes the important of knowing that man has the ability while in the wrong way to change the path to the right path which Gifts and guidance .
The search required three demands and conclusion
- The first required :- is to try the idolaters to take out believers by right .
- The second required :- is to change what is inside the soul as a reason to enter blessings on man .
- The third required :- is good

There are different types of corruptions such as administrative, political, economic and financial corruption. The corruption forms also varied such as bribery, nepotism and extortion. All types and forms of corruption play significant role in the all economic variables generally and on investments in particular, and the corruption used to be an intermediate means in reducing the rate of economic growth.  The corruption contributes in reducing the domestic investments via pay bribery by investors to officials’ persons for supplemental contracts and tenders which finally leads to reduction in the investment efficiency. The corruption also contributes in rise of operational costs for the investment projects.  In additio

Epistemological skepticism was present strongly in the Islamic
philosophical heritage. Many texts were received by thinkers and
philosophers calling for

Considering the science of speech in the light of its purposes is an accurate scientific study that looks at it from its reality in which it originated, and its topic that it dealt with and its goals that it sought, and it follows its main course in the directions of approving the belief and inferring it, and repelling the objections to it, and this study comes to show the realism of the science of speech in its emergence Its subject and method, since its launch was from the reality of the Islamic nation and based on its intellectual needs, so its presence was necessary in the life of the Islamic nation because of its role in facing the challenges faced by the Islamic faith, and the dangers it was exposed to as a result of the intellectu