Modern statistical techniques offer a range of methodologies for modelling time series data, with conditional and unconditional approaches providing complementary insights that enhance overall model accuracy. This article introduced a modified ARIMA model employing conditional and unconditional parameter estimates. The methodology for the new model based on novel methods is provided. The prediction process, one and two steps ahead, is covered in detail, and a novel algorithm is presented. The best model is picked based on various measurement criteria, such as coefficient of determination (R2), root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean absolute scaled error (MASE). The suggested model is applied to a monthly petrol sales dataset (Jan

Despite all the possibilities held by Iraq for the production of poultry , but there is low and clear in the level of production and a rise in costs and a decline in per capita consumption is due to a number of reasons, including poor investment , stop government subsides , dumping policies , market Bolmottagat imported , the contribution of the merchant squandering of national capacity , weak base material for the growth of this sector , the security situation and the crisis of energy and others .

Despite all this research has shown that there are great investment opportunities in this very sector of the market size and absorptive capacity of his and the growth of per capita income  and level of cul

This study is an approach to assign the land area of  Kirkuk city [ a city located in the northern of Iraq, 236 kilometers north of  Baghdad  and 83 kilometers  south of  Erbil [ Climatic atlas of  Iraq, 1941-1970  ]  into different  multi zones by using Satellite image and Arc Map10.3,  zones of different traffic noise pollutions. Land zonings process like what achieved in this paper will help and of it’s of a high interest point for the future of Kirkuk city especially urban

    This study carry’s out the correlation and the effect of two main variables, these variables are Job Satisfaction included six sub: wages - salaries and justice and yield, working  conditions    and services, pattern of supervision and the relationship with the manger, Relationship with colleagues, the content of the work and the variety of tasks, development and  promotion  opportunities available  to  an individual,   and Organizational Performance included  two sub variables:  Efficiency, Effectiveness.  This research was conducted using a questioner as a main tool, This questioner was distributed randomly to a research community composed of

The research (The Aesthetics of Lumia Art in Contemporary Textile Arts: An Analytical Study) included four chapters, the first to explain the research problem summarized by the question: Does the art of Lumia achieve aesthetic values in contemporary textile arts?, and aims to: Identify the aesthetics of Lumia art and its applied uses in contemporary textile arts, within the time period (2013-2022). The third chapter included: research procedures and sample analysis (4) models according to the descriptive analytical approach, and the fourth chapter dealt with: results, conclusions and recommendations as well as sources.

Business Ethics play a major role in explaining the behavior of those interested in the management of tourism enterprises in the field of management gains, which sometimes turn to manipulation in the specification of the service of tourism and influence in the technical characteristics at the expense of the brand and market share, as well as misleading beneficiaries about the fact that the performance of the service of tourism, may depend activities tourist dramatically when submitting and sharing various services on the types of mutual relations the framework for moral distinct, in interaction or direct contact between producers of tourism services and tourists or their beneficiaries, in order to provide comfort and recreation a

The present work utilizes polyacrylic acid beads (PAA) to remove Alizarin yellow R (AYR)] and Alizarin Red S (ARS) from its solution. The isotherms of adsorption were investigated and the factors that impact them, such as temperature, ionic strength effect, shaking effect, and wet PAA. The isotherms of adsorption of (ARS) were found obeys the Freundlich equation. The isotherms of adsorption of (AYR) were found obeys the Langmuir equation. At various temperatures, the adsorption process on (PAA) was investigated. According to our data, there is a positive correlation between the (ARS and AYR) adsorption on the PAA and temperature (Endothermic process). The computation of the thermodynamic functions (ΔH, ΔG, and ΔS) is based on the foregoi

   To deduct the childhood status in Iraq, it was important manner to use statistical tools and approaches concerned with interpreting the causal relationships and their attitudes and use classification method for the important effects (variables) to draw an obvious picture of the phenomena under study in order to make it useful through investing, updating and improving it in by demographic studies in the future. Two statistical methods had been used in the field of analyzing data of multivariate analysis namely, Cluster Analysis and Factor Analysis.  

The present study focuses on four fundamental axes .The nutrition axis, health axis, Educational axis, and the social axis. The study has ca