Water provision is sensitive to climate change, and agricultural production and food supply are sensitive to water availability. Water scarcity affects food security and agricultural economic development through changes in agricultural production and changes in the composition of produced goods. Recent droughts also led to a decrease in the volume of water allocated to agriculture, which led to a decrease in total agricultural production and exports, and this has subsequent impacts on food security and economic development. The research aimed to measure the impact of water scarcity on agricultural economic development for the period 1990-2022. The research included three behavioral equations with three endogenous variables: the cultivated area, the value of agricultural output, and the value of gross domestic product, and four exogenous variables: the amount of available water, agricultural labor, and the value of agricultural investments and the income of other sectors, the studied model is called the sequential model, which was estimated using the Recursive method, using the ordinary least squares (OLS) method. The results indicated that increasing the amount of available water will lead to an increase in the cultivated areas by 141,129.2 dunums, and that increasing one thousand dunums of the cultivated area will increase agricultural output by 0.00821, and that agricultural labor is inversely proportional to agricultural output. It became clear that if the income of the rest of the sectors increased by one unit, the domestic product would increase by 0.1873. Water scarcity will reduce cultivated areas, which in turn will decrease agricultural output, causing the value of agricultural output to decrease and its contribution to the gross domestic product to decrease. In turn, it will have serious repercussions on agricultural economic development. Therefore, the research recommends the necessity of integrated water management and improving the efficiency of its use, as well as the application of modern technologies in agriculture, such as sprinkler irrigation, hydroponics, and redrawing crop compositions to ensure maximizing the net return per unit of water.
